FIFA World Cup 2026
PROJECTION PHASE FINALE
Instantané des probabilités sur 9 tours entre groupes et phase finale.
À partir des huitièmes de finale, la Coupe du Monde 2026 devient un tournoi à élimination directe. Cette page suit le chemin le plus probable vers la finale pour les principaux prétendants, sur la base de simulations en direct mises à jour au fil des résultats et des classements de groupe.
Champion attendu
Belgique
Champion: 11.6%
Tableau des phases éliminatoires
Tableau prévu d'après la simulation du classement FIFA.
Finale
Belgique
1er Grp G
vs
Brésil
1er Grp C
52%48%
Demi-finales
France
1er Grp I
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
50%50%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Argentine
1er Grp J
58%42%
Quarts de finale
France
1er Grp I
vs
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
69%31%
Espagne
1er Grp H
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
25%75%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Angleterre
1er Grp L
66%34%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Portugal
1er Grp K
68%32%
Huitièmes de finale
Allemagne
1er Grp E
vs
France
1er Grp I
39%61%
République Tchèque
2e Grp A
vs
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
15%85%
Colombie
2e Grp K
vs
Espagne
1er Grp H
33%67%
États-Unis
1er Grp D
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
34%66%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Équateur
2e Grp E
91%9%
Mexique
1er Grp A
vs
Angleterre
1er Grp L
48%52%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Turquie
2e Grp D
93%7%
Suisse
1er Grp B
vs
Portugal
1er Grp K
40%60%
Seizièmes de finale
Allemagne
1er Grp E
vs
Écosse
3rd (A/B/C/D/F)
64%36%
France
1er Grp I
vs
Écosse
3rd (C/D/F/G/H)
72%28%
République Tchèque
2e Grp A
vs
Canada
2e Grp B
54%46%
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
vs
Maroc
2e Grp C
71%29%
Colombie
2e Grp K
vs
Croatie
2e Grp L
59%41%
Espagne
1er Grp H
vs
Autriche
2e Grp J
70%30%
États-Unis
1er Grp D
vs
Curaçao
3rd (A/E/G/J/L)
72%28%
Belgique
1er Grp G
vs
Curaçao
3rd (A/E/H/I/J)
74%26%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Suède
2e Grp F
65%35%
Équateur
2e Grp E
vs
Sénégal
2e Grp I
53%47%
Mexique
1er Grp A
vs
Écosse
3rd (C/E/F/H/I)
75%25%
Angleterre
1er Grp L
vs
Algérie
3rd (B/H/I/J/K)
75%25%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Uruguay
2e Grp H
72%28%
Turquie
2e Grp D
vs
Égypte
2e Grp G
62%38%
Suisse
1er Grp B
vs
Curaçao
3rd (E/F/G/I/J)
68%32%
Portugal
1er Grp K
vs
Algérie
3rd (B/D/J/L)
70%30%
Les positions reflètent les résultats attendus des groupes. Les troisièmes montrent les 8 équipes les plus probables.
Tableau des probabilités de phase finale
| # | Équipe | Phase finale | Huitièmes de finale | Quarts de finale | Demi-finales | Finale | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 96.5% | 68.7% | 41.1% | 30.2% | 16.8% | 11.6% | |
| 2 | 94.4% | 66.4% | 35.8% | 26.9% | 17.7% | 11.4% | |
| 3 | 91.9% | 69.7% | 45.7% | 28.6% | 16.4% | 10.9% | |
| 4 | 95.5% | 64.0% | 42.7% | 31.4% | 15.9% | 7.8% | |
| 5 | 95.9% | 65.3% | 36.3% | 24.3% | 13.6% | 7.2% | |
| 6 | 98.1% | 62.1% | 42.9% | 26.5% | 15.9% | 5.9% | |
| 7 | 92.7% | 64.3% | 34.5% | 18.7% | 10.9% | 5.6% | |
| 8 | 88.2% | 55.4% | 33.2% | 16.8% | 9.9% | 5.2% | |
| 9 | 98.4% | 76.7% | 50.7% | 21.3% | 12.8% | 5.1% | |
| 10 | 94.4% | 59.8% | 28.1% | 14.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | |
| 11 | 92.9% | 64.6% | 34.8% | 16.6% | 7.2% | 3.6% | |
| 12 | 89.9% | 59.1% | 36.6% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | |
| 13 | 81.7% | 44.5% | 21.4% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% | |
| 14 | 88.5% | 55.2% | 26.6% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| 15 | 90.9% | 50.6% | 21.4% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | |
| 16 | 78.5% | 39.1% | 15.7% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| 17 | 85.7% | 47.5% | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 65.4% | 28.3% | 15.0% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 87.1% | 42.3% | 15.1% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 62.7% | 26.1% | 13.7% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 56.9% | 32.2% | 16.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | |
| 22 | 62.0% | 23.6% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 88.0% | 42.4% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 72.4% | 24.0% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 67.8% | 27.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 62.7% | 27.5% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 83.0% | 27.5% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 73.1% | 26.1% | 10.7% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 47.5% | 14.5% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 68.8% | 24.0% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 57.9% | 24.3% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 56.2% | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 70.7% | 21.8% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 67.8% | 21.8% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 39.7% | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 54.7% | 17.6% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 49.7% | 15.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 44.3% | 13.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 30.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 65.0% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 43.8% | 12.7% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 34.8% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 42.5% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 44 | 20.8% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 45 | 21.0% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 46 | 18.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 47 | 16.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 48 | 10.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |