FIFA World Cup 2026
PROJECTION PHASE FINALE
Instantané des probabilités sur 9 tours entre groupes et phase finale.
À partir des huitièmes de finale, la Coupe du Monde 2026 devient un tournoi à élimination directe. Cette page suit le chemin le plus probable vers la finale pour les principaux prétendants, sur la base de simulations en direct mises à jour au fil des résultats et des classements de groupe.
Champion attendu
France
Champion: 11.7%
Tableau des phases éliminatoires
Tableau prévu d'après la simulation du classement FIFA.
Finale
France
1er Grp I
vs
Brésil
1er Grp C
52%48%
Demi-finales
France
1er Grp I
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
50%50%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Argentine
1er Grp J
58%42%
Quarts de finale
France
1er Grp I
vs
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
70%30%
Espagne
1er Grp H
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
24%76%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Angleterre
1er Grp L
67%33%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Portugal
1er Grp K
68%32%
Huitièmes de finale
Allemagne
1er Grp E
vs
France
1er Grp I
41%59%
République Tchèque
2e Grp A
vs
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
16%84%
Colombie
2e Grp K
vs
Espagne
1er Grp H
35%65%
États-Unis
1er Grp D
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
34%66%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Équateur
2e Grp E
89%11%
Mexique
1er Grp A
vs
Angleterre
1er Grp L
48%52%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Australie
2e Grp D
92%8%
Suisse
1er Grp B
vs
Portugal
1er Grp K
39%61%
Seizièmes de finale
Allemagne
1er Grp E
vs
Écosse
3rd (A/B/C/D/F)
65%35%
France
1er Grp I
vs
Écosse
3rd (C/D/F/G/H)
74%26%
République Tchèque
2e Grp A
vs
Canada
2e Grp B
56%44%
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
vs
Maroc
2e Grp C
74%26%
Colombie
2e Grp K
vs
Croatie
2e Grp L
61%39%
Espagne
1er Grp H
vs
Autriche
2e Grp J
72%28%
États-Unis
1er Grp D
vs
Curaçao
3rd (A/E/G/J/L)
73%27%
Belgique
1er Grp G
vs
Curaçao
3rd (A/E/H/I/J)
76%24%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Suède
2e Grp F
67%33%
Équateur
2e Grp E
vs
Sénégal
2e Grp I
54%46%
Mexique
1er Grp A
vs
Écosse
3rd (C/E/F/H/I)
76%24%
Angleterre
1er Grp L
vs
Algérie
3rd (B/H/I/J/K)
77%23%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Uruguay
2e Grp H
73%27%
Australie
2e Grp D
vs
Égypte
2e Grp G
63%37%
Suisse
1er Grp B
vs
Curaçao
3rd (E/F/G/I/J)
69%31%
Portugal
1er Grp K
vs
Algérie
3rd (B/D/J/L)
71%29%
Les positions reflètent les résultats attendus des groupes. Les troisièmes montrent les 8 équipes les plus probables.
Tableau des probabilités de phase finale
| # | Équipe | Phase finale | Huitièmes de finale | Quarts de finale | Demi-finales | Finale | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 94.4% | 66.6% | 34.9% | 26.4% | 17.8% | 11.7% | |
| 2 | 96.5% | 69.3% | 40.5% | 30.7% | 16.6% | 11.6% | |
| 3 | 91.9% | 69.9% | 45.8% | 28.4% | 16.2% | 10.8% | |
| 4 | 95.9% | 66.7% | 37.1% | 25.3% | 14.7% | 8.0% | |
| 5 | 95.5% | 64.6% | 43.8% | 32.8% | 16.0% | 7.7% | |
| 6 | 98.4% | 63.7% | 44.9% | 28.4% | 17.4% | 6.1% | |
| 7 | 92.8% | 64.8% | 34.3% | 18.3% | 10.7% | 5.3% | |
| 8 | 88.1% | 55.8% | 32.7% | 16.3% | 9.7% | 5.1% | |
| 9 | 98.4% | 77.6% | 51.9% | 20.9% | 12.8% | 4.9% | |
| 10 | 92.8% | 65.5% | 34.9% | 16.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% | |
| 11 | 94.6% | 59.9% | 27.1% | 13.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | |
| 12 | 90.7% | 60.0% | 37.9% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 2.3% | |
| 13 | 88.3% | 56.4% | 27.3% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| 14 | 80.7% | 43.2% | 20.6% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| 15 | 78.0% | 38.4% | 14.7% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | |
| 16 | 91.0% | 51.2% | 21.0% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | |
| 17 | 86.0% | 48.0% | 21.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 87.2% | 43.4% | 15.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 64.3% | 27.2% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 62.5% | 25.7% | 13.4% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 59.2% | 34.6% | 18.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 78.3% | 24.8% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 62.2% | 23.1% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 88.6% | 43.1% | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 67.8% | 27.4% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 82.3% | 26.6% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 72.4% | 25.3% | 10.7% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 63.2% | 27.9% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 54.6% | 14.7% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 67.9% | 23.0% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 56.0% | 22.6% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 56.4% | 21.9% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 69.2% | 21.1% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 66.4% | 20.6% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 38.4% | 15.5% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 54.0% | 17.8% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 51.2% | 15.7% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 43.6% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 28.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 42.2% | 12.0% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 34.1% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 64.8% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 43 | 43.6% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 44 | 20.0% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 45 | 15.9% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 46 | 20.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 47 | 17.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 48 | 9.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |