FIFA World Cup 2026
PROJECTION PHASE FINALE
Instantané des probabilités sur 8 tours entre groupes et phase finale.
Champion attendu
Brésil
Champion: 38.4%
Tableau des phases éliminatoires
Tableau prévu d'après la simulation du classement FIFA.
Finale
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Argentine
1er Grp J
77%23%
Demi-finales
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
65%35%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Suède
3e pos. #6
99%1%
Quarts de finale
Mexique
1er Grp A
vs
Brésil
1er Grp C
3%97%
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
vs
Belgique
1er Grp G
9%91%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Angleterre
1er Grp L
62%38%
Équateur
3e pos. #1
vs
Suède
3e pos. #6
0%100%
Huitièmes de finale
Mexique
1er Grp A
vs
Suisse
1er Grp B
67%33%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Maroc
2e Grp C
100%0%
Allemagne
1er Grp E
vs
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
33%67%
Belgique
1er Grp G
vs
Espagne
1er Grp H
87%13%
France
1er Grp I
vs
Argentine
1er Grp J
49%51%
Portugal
1er Grp K
vs
Angleterre
1er Grp L
21%79%
Équateur
3e pos. #1
vs
Afrique du Sud
3e pos. #3
50%50%
Suède
3e pos. #6
vs
Ghana
3e pos. #7
100%0%
Seizièmes de finale
Mexique
1er Grp A
vs
Bosnie-Herzégovine
2e Grp B
72%28%
Suisse
1er Grp B
vs
République Tchèque
2e Grp A
61%39%
Brésil
1er Grp C
vs
Paraguay
2e Grp D
36%64%
Australie
1er Grp D
vs
Maroc
2e Grp C
93%7%
Allemagne
1er Grp E
vs
Japon
2e Grp F
58%42%
Pays-Bas
1er Grp F
vs
Curaçao
2e Grp E
76%24%
Belgique
1er Grp G
vs
Uruguay
2e Grp H
81%19%
Espagne
1er Grp H
vs
Égypte
2e Grp G
78%22%
France
1er Grp I
vs
Algérie
2e Grp J
80%20%
Argentine
1er Grp J
vs
Sénégal
2e Grp I
72%28%
Portugal
1er Grp K
vs
Croatie
2e Grp L
54%46%
Angleterre
1er Grp L
vs
Colombie
2e Grp K
67%33%
Équateur
3e pos. #1
vs
Turquie
3e pos. #2
52%48%
Afrique du Sud
3e pos. #3
vs
Autriche
3e pos. #4
52%48%
Canada
3e pos. #5
vs
Suède
3e pos. #6
52%48%
Ghana
3e pos. #7
vs
Irak
3e pos. #8
50%50%
Les positions reflètent les résultats attendus des groupes. Les troisièmes montrent les 8 équipes les plus probables.
Tableau des probabilités de phase finale
| # | Équipe | Phase finale | Huitièmes de finale | Quarts de finale | Demi-finales | Finale | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.8% | 96.4% | 91.5% | 80.4% | 53.1% | 38.4% | |
| 2 | 100.0% | 82.3% | 65.2% | 54.2% | 29.7% | 20.6% | |
| 3 | 99.5% | 77.5% | 49.1% | 32.8% | 26.5% | 11.2% | |
| 4 | 98.8% | 79.8% | 49.2% | 32.6% | 26.0% | 10.7% | |
| 5 | 98.5% | 72.4% | 51.4% | 24.9% | 18.9% | 6.8% | |
| 6 | 99.4% | 69.6% | 30.1% | 20.6% | 7.5% | 3.2% | |
| 7 | 91.3% | 70.9% | 48.6% | 18.3% | 5.7% | 2.0% | |
| 8 | 99.7% | 55.8% | 29.2% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | |
| 9 | 99.7% | 76.6% | 53.8% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 99.9% | 65.1% | 40.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 98.0% | 48.1% | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 92.2% | 48.7% | 19.6% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 94.9% | 64.5% | 38.0% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 84.7% | 37.7% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 98.9% | 39.6% | 14.5% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 84.2% | 58.5% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 17.3% | 6.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 62.6% | 34.7% | 15.4% | 5.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 96.5% | 44.3% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| 20 | 74.7% | 24.5% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| 21 | 58.8% | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| 22 | 46.9% | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| 23 | 96.1% | 31.6% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 24 | 69.5% | 21.6% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 25 | 61.8% | 32.2% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 26 | 95.5% | 29.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 27 | 77.8% | 31.5% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 28 | 67.7% | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 29 | 97.9% | 19.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 30 | 96.3% | 26.9% | 6.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 31 | 93.0% | 27.3% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 32 | 57.3% | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 33 | 80.6% | 23.0% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 34 | 77.8% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 35 | 68.9% | 16.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 36 | 68.4% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 37 | 44.2% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 38 | 30.8% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 39 | 30.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 40 | 15.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 41 | 13.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 42 | 11.7% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 43 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 44 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 45 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 46 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 47 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 48 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |