Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 12 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sport#1Winner: 17.4%Promotion: 51.2%Relegation: 1.4% | 17.4% |
| 2 |  Vila Nova#2Winner: 17.2%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 1.4% | 17.2% |
| 3 |  São Bernardo#3Winner: 14.4%Promotion: 45.9%Relegation: 2.0% | 14.4% |
| 4 |  Náutico#5Winner: 9.0%Promotion: 34.9%Relegation: 3.8% | 9.0% |
| 5 |  Criciúma#4Winner: 7.1%Promotion: 30.7%Relegation: 4.4% | 7.1% |
| 6 |  Fortaleza#7Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.2%Relegation: 5.6% | 6.5% |
| 7 |  Operário-PR#6Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 25.3%Relegation: 6.2% | 5.3% |
| 8 |  Goiás#8Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 23.4%Relegation: 7.6% | 4.8% |
| 9 |  Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.6%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 8.0% | 4.6% |
| 10 |  Athletic Club#10Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 22.4%Relegation: 8.1% | 4.5% |
| 11 |  Juventude#11Winner: 2.2%Promotion: 13.5%Relegation: 13.9% | 2.2% |
| 12 |  CRB#12Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 16.1% | 2.0% |
| 13 |  Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 1.3% |
| 14 |  Ceará#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 1.3% |
| 15 |  Cuiabá#15Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 8.5%Relegation: 22.5% | 1.2% |
| 16 |  Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 36.8% | 0.5% |
| 17 |  Avaí#17Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.9%Relegation: 37.4% | 0.4% |
| 18 |  Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 48.6% | 0.2% |
| 19 |  Londrina#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.3%Relegation: 56.4% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport#1Winner: 17.4%Promotion: 51.2%Relegation: 1.4% | 51.2% |
| 2 | Vila Nova#2Winner: 17.2%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 1.4% | 51.1% |
| 3 | São Bernardo#3Winner: 14.4%Promotion: 45.9%Relegation: 2.0% | 45.9% |
| 4 | Náutico#5Winner: 9.0%Promotion: 34.9%Relegation: 3.8% | 34.9% |
| 5 | Criciúma#4Winner: 7.1%Promotion: 30.7%Relegation: 4.4% | 30.7% |
| 6 | Fortaleza#7Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.2%Relegation: 5.6% | 28.2% |
| 7 | Operário-PR#6Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 25.3%Relegation: 6.2% | 25.3% |
| 8 | Goiás#8Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 23.4%Relegation: 7.6% | 23.4% |
| 9 | Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.6%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 8.0% | 22.6% |
| 10 | Athletic Club#10Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 22.4%Relegation: 8.1% | 22.4% |
| 11 | Juventude#11Winner: 2.2%Promotion: 13.5%Relegation: 13.9% | 13.5% |
| 12 | CRB#12Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 16.1% | 12.4% |
| 13 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 9.0% |
| 14 | Ceará#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 9.0% |
| 15 | Cuiabá#15Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 8.5%Relegation: 22.5% | 8.5% |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 36.8% | 4.0% |
| 17 | Avaí#17Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.9%Relegation: 37.4% | 3.9% |
| 18 | Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 48.6% | 2.2% |
| 19 | Londrina#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.3%Relegation: 56.4% | 1.3% |
| 20 |  América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.9% | 0.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.9% | 76.9% |
| 2 | Londrina#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.3%Relegation: 56.4% | 56.4% |
| 3 | Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 48.6% | 48.6% |
| 4 | Avaí#17Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.9%Relegation: 37.4% | 37.4% |
| 5 | Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 36.8% | 36.8% |
| 6 | Cuiabá#15Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 8.5%Relegation: 22.5% | 22.5% |
| 7 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 21.5% |
| 8 | Ceará#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 21.5% |
| 9 | CRB#12Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 16.1% | 16.1% |
| 10 | Juventude#11Winner: 2.2%Promotion: 13.5%Relegation: 13.9% | 13.9% |
| 11 | Athletic Club#10Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 22.4%Relegation: 8.1% | 8.1% |
| 12 | Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.6%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 8.0% | 8.0% |
| 13 | Goiás#8Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 23.4%Relegation: 7.6% | 7.6% |
| 14 | Operário-PR#6Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 25.3%Relegation: 6.2% | 6.2% |
| 15 | Fortaleza#7Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.2%Relegation: 5.6% | 5.6% |
| 16 | Criciúma#4Winner: 7.1%Promotion: 30.7%Relegation: 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 17 | Náutico#5Winner: 9.0%Promotion: 34.9%Relegation: 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 18 | São Bernardo#3Winner: 14.4%Promotion: 45.9%Relegation: 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 19 | Sport#1Winner: 17.4%Promotion: 51.2%Relegation: 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 20 | Vila Nova#2Winner: 17.2%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 1.4% | 1.4% |
Round 12 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sport#1Winner: 17.4%Promotion: 51.2%Relegation: 1.4% | 11 | 22 | 17% | 51% | 1% |
2 | Vila Nova#2Winner: 17.2%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 1.4% | 11 | 22 | 17% | 51% | 1% |
3 | São Bernardo#3Winner: 14.4%Promotion: 45.9%Relegation: 2.0% | 11 | 21 | 14% | 46% | 2% |
4↑4 | Criciúma#4Winner: 7.1%Promotion: 30.7%Relegation: 4.4% | 12 | 20 | 7% | 31% | 4% |
5↓1 | Náutico#5Winner: 9.0%Promotion: 34.9%Relegation: 3.8% | 11 | 19 | 9% | 35% | 4% |
6↑5 | Operário-PR#6Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 25.3%Relegation: 6.2% | 12 | 19 | 5% | 25% | 6% |
7↓2 | Fortaleza#7Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.2%Relegation: 5.6% | 11 | 18 | 7% | 28% | 6% |
8↓2 | Goiás#8Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 23.4%Relegation: 7.6% | 11 | 17 | 5% | 23% | 8% |
9↓2 | Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.6%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 8.0% | 11 | 17 | 5% | 23% | 8% |
10↓1 | Athletic Club#10Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 22.4%Relegation: 8.1% | 11 | 17 | 5% | 22% | 8% |
11↓1 | Juventude#11Winner: 2.2%Promotion: 13.5%Relegation: 13.9% | 12 | 16 | 2% | 14% | 14% |
12 | CRB#12Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 16.1% | 11 | 14 | 2% | 12% | 16% |
13 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 11 | 13 | 1% | 9% | 22% |
14 | Ceará#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5% | 11 | 13 | 1% | 9% | 22% |
15 | Cuiabá#15Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 8.5%Relegation: 22.5% | 11 | 13 | 1% | 9% | 23% |
16 | Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 36.8% | 11 | 10 | 1% | 4% | 37% |
17 | Avaí#17Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.9%Relegation: 37.4% | 11 | 10 | 0% | 4% | 37% |
18 | Londrina#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.3%Relegation: 56.4% | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1% | 56% |
19 | Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 48.6% | 11 | 8 | 0% | 2% | 49% |
20 | América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.9% | 11 | 3 | — | 0% | 77% |
WinnerPromotionRelegation
After Round 12: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Londrina's Relegation probability dropped from 88.1% to 56.4% (-31.7%).
- ↓Ponte Preta's Relegation probability dropped from 71.4% to 48.6% (-22.8%).
- ↓Fortaleza's Promotion probability dropped from 47.8% to 28.2% (-19.6%).
- ↑Ceará's Relegation probability climbed from 2.4% to 21.5% (+19.1%).
- ↓Sport's Promotion probability dropped from 68.6% to 51.2% (-17.4%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
CRB#12Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 16.1%7:00 PMSão Bernardo#3Winner: 14.4%Promotion: 45.9%Relegation: 2.0%
7:00 PMSão Bernardo#3Winner: 14.4%Promotion: 45.9%Relegation: 2.0%44%
29%
Vila Nova#2Winner: 17.2%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 1.4%11:00 PMBotafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 36.8%
11:00 PMBotafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 36.8%45%
28%
América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.9%11:00 PMAtlético-GO#13Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5%
11:00 PMAtlético-GO#13Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5%27%
46%
Náutico#5Winner: 9.0%Promotion: 34.9%Relegation: 3.8%10:00 PMFortaleza#7Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.2%Relegation: 5.6%
10:00 PMFortaleza#7Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.2%Relegation: 5.6%35%
34%
Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 48.6%10:00 PMCuiabá#15Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 8.5%Relegation: 22.5%
10:00 PMCuiabá#15Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 8.5%Relegation: 22.5%29%
43%
Ceará#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5%11:00 PMAvaí#17Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.9%Relegation: 37.4%
11:00 PMAvaí#17Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.9%Relegation: 37.4%60%
17%
Goiás#8Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 23.4%Relegation: 7.6%11:00 PMNovorizontino#9Winner: 4.6%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 8.0%
11:00 PMNovorizontino#9Winner: 4.6%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 8.0%42%
30%
Sport#1Winner: 17.4%Promotion: 51.2%Relegation: 1.4%12:00 AMAthletic Club#10Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 22.4%Relegation: 8.1%
12:00 AMAthletic Club#10Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 22.4%Relegation: 8.1%55%
21%
Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 9.0%Relegation: 21.5%10:00 PMCRB#12Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 16.1%
10:00 PMCRB#12Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 16.1%28%
32%
São Bernardo#3Winner: 14.4%Promotion: 45.9%Relegation: 2.0%2:00 PMSport#1Winner: 17.4%Promotion: 51.2%Relegation: 1.4%
2:00 PMSport#1Winner: 17.4%Promotion: 51.2%Relegation: 1.4%39%
34%
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Winner:
Promotion:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Sport currently have the highest title probability at 17%. With 26 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- América-MG currently faces the highest relegation risk at 77%, followed by Londrina at 56%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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