Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 13 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  São Bernardo#1Winner: 19.4%Promotion: 54.6%Relegation: 1.0% | 19.4% |
| 2 |  Vila Nova#2Winner: 18.9%Promotion: 54.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 18.9% |
| 3 |  Sport#3Winner: 14.2%Promotion: 46.7%Relegation: 1.6% | 14.2% |
| 4 |  Fortaleza#4Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 4.4% | 6.9% |
| 5 |  Novorizontino#5Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.9%Relegation: 4.8% | 6.5% |
| 6 |  Criciúma#6Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 28.4%Relegation: 4.8% | 6.4% |
| 7 |  Náutico#7Winner: 5.4%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 5.9% | 5.4% |
| 8 |  Juventude#9Winner: 3.8%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 8.4% | 3.8% |
| 9 |  Operário-PR#8Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 19.3%Relegation: 8.9% | 3.6% |
| 10 |  Cuiabá#10Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.4% | 3.3% |
| 11 |  Athletic Club#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.3% | 3.3% |
| 12 |  Goiás#12Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 15.9%Relegation: 11.3% | 2.7% |
| 13 |  Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 12.0%Relegation: 15.1% | 1.9% |
| 14 |  Ceará#14Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 11.9%Relegation: 15.2% | 1.8% |
| 15 |  CRB#15Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 7.5%Relegation: 23.0% | 1.0% |
| 16 |  Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 34.4% | 0.4% |
| 17 |  Londrina#17Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 46.2% | 0.2% |
| 18 |  Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.4%Relegation: 53.8% | 0.1% |
| 19 |  Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.7%Relegation: 65.3% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | São Bernardo#1Winner: 19.4%Promotion: 54.6%Relegation: 1.0% | 54.6% |
| 2 | Vila Nova#2Winner: 18.9%Promotion: 54.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 54.0% |
| 3 | Sport#3Winner: 14.2%Promotion: 46.7%Relegation: 1.6% | 46.7% |
| 4 | Fortaleza#4Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 4.4% | 29.9% |
| 5 | Novorizontino#5Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.9%Relegation: 4.8% | 28.9% |
| 6 | Criciúma#6Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 28.4%Relegation: 4.8% | 28.4% |
| 7 | Náutico#7Winner: 5.4%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 5.9% | 25.4% |
| 8 | Juventude#9Winner: 3.8%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 8.4% | 20.1% |
| 9 | Operário-PR#8Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 19.3%Relegation: 8.9% | 19.3% |
| 10 | Cuiabá#10Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.4% | 18.4% |
| 11 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.3% | 18.4% |
| 12 | Goiás#12Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 15.9%Relegation: 11.3% | 15.9% |
| 13 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 12.0%Relegation: 15.1% | 12.0% |
| 14 | Ceará#14Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 11.9%Relegation: 15.2% | 11.9% |
| 15 | CRB#15Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 7.5%Relegation: 23.0% | 7.5% |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 34.4% | 4.0% |
| 17 | Londrina#17Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 46.2% | 2.2% |
| 18 | Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.4%Relegation: 53.8% | 1.4% |
| 19 | Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.7%Relegation: 65.3% | 0.7% |
| 20 |  América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.2% | 0.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.2% | 76.2% |
| 2 | Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.7%Relegation: 65.3% | 65.3% |
| 3 | Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.4%Relegation: 53.8% | 53.8% |
| 4 | Londrina#17Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 46.2% | 46.2% |
| 5 | Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 34.4% | 34.4% |
| 6 | CRB#15Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 7.5%Relegation: 23.0% | 23.0% |
| 7 | Ceará#14Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 11.9%Relegation: 15.2% | 15.2% |
| 8 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 12.0%Relegation: 15.1% | 15.1% |
| 9 | Goiás#12Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 15.9%Relegation: 11.3% | 11.3% |
| 10 | Cuiabá#10Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.4% | 9.4% |
| 11 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.3% | 9.3% |
| 12 | Operário-PR#8Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 19.3%Relegation: 8.9% | 8.9% |
| 13 | Juventude#9Winner: 3.8%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 8.4% | 8.4% |
| 14 | Náutico#7Winner: 5.4%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 5.9% | 5.9% |
| 15 | Novorizontino#5Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.9%Relegation: 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 16 | Criciúma#6Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 28.4%Relegation: 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 17 | Fortaleza#4Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 18 | Sport#3Winner: 14.2%Promotion: 46.7%Relegation: 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 19 | São Bernardo#1Winner: 19.4%Promotion: 54.6%Relegation: 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 20 | Vila Nova#2Winner: 18.9%Promotion: 54.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 1.0% |
Round 13 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | São Bernardo#1Winner: 19.4%Promotion: 54.6%Relegation: 1.0% | 13 | 25 | 19% | 55% | 1% |
2↓1 | Vila Nova#2Winner: 18.9%Promotion: 54.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 13 | 25 | 19% | 54% | 1% |
3 | Sport#3Winner: 14.2%Promotion: 46.7%Relegation: 1.6% | 13 | 24 | 14% | 47% | 2% |
4 | Fortaleza#4Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 4.4% | 13 | 21 | 7% | 30% | 4% |
5 | Novorizontino#5Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.9%Relegation: 4.8% | 13 | 21 | 7% | 29% | 5% |
6 | Criciúma#6Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 28.4%Relegation: 4.8% | 13 | 21 | 6% | 28% | 5% |
7 | Náutico#7Winner: 5.4%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 5.9% | 13 | 20 | 5% | 25% | 6% |
8 | Operário-PR#8Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 19.3%Relegation: 8.9% | 13 | 19 | 4% | 19% | 9% |
9↑3 | Juventude#9Winner: 3.8%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 8.4% | 13 | 19 | 4% | 20% | 8% |
10↑4 | Cuiabá#10Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.4% | 13 | 19 | 3% | 18% | 9% |
11↓2 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.3% | 13 | 19 | 3% | 18% | 9% |
12↓2 | Goiás#12Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 15.9%Relegation: 11.3% | 13 | 18 | 3% | 16% | 11% |
13↓2 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 12.0%Relegation: 15.1% | 13 | 17 | 2% | 12% | 15% |
14↓1 | Ceará#14Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 11.9%Relegation: 15.2% | 13 | 17 | 2% | 12% | 15% |
15 | CRB#15Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 7.5%Relegation: 23.0% | 13 | 15 | 1% | 8% | 23% |
16 | Botafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 34.4% | 13 | 13 | 0% | 4% | 34% |
17↑1 | Londrina#17Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 46.2% | 13 | 11 | 0% | 2% | 46% |
18↓1 | Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.4%Relegation: 53.8% | 13 | 10 | 0% | 1% | 54% |
19 | Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.7%Relegation: 65.3% | 13 | 8 | 0% | 1% | 65% |
20 | América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.2% | 13 | 6 | — | 0% | 76% |
WinnerPromotionRelegation
After Round 13: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Fortaleza's Promotion probability dropped from 72.9% to 29.9% (-43%).
- ↓Avaí's Relegation probability dropped from 88.4% to 53.8% (-34.6%).
- ↑Botafogo-SP's Relegation probability climbed from 0.6% to 34.4% (+33.8%).
- ↓Londrina's Relegation probability dropped from 68.6% to 46.2% (-22.4%).
- ↓Juventude's Promotion probability dropped from 40.9% to 20.1% (-20.8%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Sport#3Winner: 14.2%Promotion: 46.7%Relegation: 1.6%12:00 AMAtlético-GO#13Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 12.0%Relegation: 15.1%
12:00 AMAtlético-GO#13Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 12.0%Relegation: 15.1%51%
23%
Londrina#17Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 46.2%2:00 PMAthletic Club#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.3%
2:00 PMAthletic Club#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.3%25%
53%
Ceará#14Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 11.9%Relegation: 15.2%10:00 PMBotafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 34.4%
10:00 PMBotafogo-SP#16Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 34.4%43%
34%
Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.4%Relegation: 53.8%2:00 PMCuiabá#10Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.4%
2:00 PMCuiabá#10Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 18.4%Relegation: 9.4%18%
60%
CRB#15Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 7.5%Relegation: 23.0%7:00 PMFortaleza#4Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 4.4%
7:00 PMFortaleza#4Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 4.4%36%
39%
São Bernardo#1Winner: 19.4%Promotion: 54.6%Relegation: 1.0%8:00 PMJuventude#9Winner: 3.8%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 8.4%
8:00 PMJuventude#9Winner: 3.8%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 8.4%44%
23%
Goiás#12Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 15.9%Relegation: 11.3%9:30 PMOperário-PR#8Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 19.3%Relegation: 8.9%
9:30 PMOperário-PR#8Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 19.3%Relegation: 8.9%53%
23%
Ponte Preta#19Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.7%Relegation: 65.3%11:00 PMNovorizontino#5Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.9%Relegation: 4.8%
11:00 PMNovorizontino#5Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 28.9%Relegation: 4.8%31%
42%
América-MG#20Promotion: 0.3%Relegation: 76.2%11:00 PMCriciúma#6Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 28.4%Relegation: 4.8%
11:00 PMCriciúma#6Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 28.4%Relegation: 4.8%24%
48%
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Winner:
Promotion:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, São Bernardo currently have the highest title probability at 19%. With 25 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- América-MG currently faces the highest relegation risk at 76%, followed by Ponte Preta at 65%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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