Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 20 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Criciúma#1Winner: 41.1%Promotion: 82.5% | 41.1% |
| 2 |  Juventude#3Winner: 12.5%Promotion: 51.7%Relegation: 0.2% | 12.5% |
| 3 |  Operário-PR#2Winner: 12.0%Promotion: 51.0%Relegation: 0.1% | 12.0% |
| 4 |  Fortaleza#5Winner: 9.4%Promotion: 44.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 9.4% |
| 5 |  Vila Nova#4Winner: 8.9%Promotion: 43.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 8.9% |
| 6 |  Novorizontino#6Winner: 6.8%Promotion: 36.5%Relegation: 0.5% | 6.8% |
| 7 |  Atlético-GO#7Winner: 2.9%Promotion: 21.8%Relegation: 1.7% | 2.9% |
| 8 |  CRB#8Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 3.7% | 1.5% |
| 9 |  Goiás#9Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 10 |  Sport#10Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 4.3% | 1.3% |
| 11 |  Athletic Club#11Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 9.1%Relegation: 6.4% | 0.8% |
| 12 |  São Bernardo#12Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 7.7%Relegation: 7.8% | 0.7% |
| 13 |  Náutico#13Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 14.3% | 0.2% |
| 14 |  Cuiabá#14Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 3.3%Relegation: 17.0% | 0.2% |
| 15 |  Botafogo-SP#15Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.4%Relegation: 19.6% | 0.1% |
| 16 |  Ceará#16Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.0%Relegation: 34.1% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciúma#1Winner: 41.1%Promotion: 82.5% | 82.5% |
| 2 | Juventude#3Winner: 12.5%Promotion: 51.7%Relegation: 0.2% | 51.7% |
| 3 | Operário-PR#2Winner: 12.0%Promotion: 51.0%Relegation: 0.1% | 51.0% |
| 4 | Fortaleza#5Winner: 9.4%Promotion: 44.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 44.7% |
| 5 | Vila Nova#4Winner: 8.9%Promotion: 43.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 43.7% |
| 6 | Novorizontino#6Winner: 6.8%Promotion: 36.5%Relegation: 0.5% | 36.5% |
| 7 | Atlético-GO#7Winner: 2.9%Promotion: 21.8%Relegation: 1.7% | 21.8% |
| 8 | CRB#8Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 3.7% | 13.8% |
| 9 | Goiás#9Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 13.6% |
| 10 | Sport#10Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 4.3% | 12.4% |
| 11 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 9.1%Relegation: 6.4% | 9.1% |
| 12 | São Bernardo#12Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 7.7%Relegation: 7.8% | 7.7% |
| 13 | Náutico#13Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 14.3% | 4.0% |
| 14 | Cuiabá#14Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 3.3%Relegation: 17.0% | 3.3% |
| 15 | Botafogo-SP#15Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.4%Relegation: 19.6% | 2.4% |
| 16 | Ceará#16Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.0%Relegation: 34.1% | 1.0% |
| 17 |  Londrina#17Promotion: 0.4%Relegation: 46.8% | 0.4% |
| 18 |  Avaí#18Promotion: 0.4%Relegation: 48.0% | 0.4% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ponte Preta#20Relegation: 96.9% | 96.9% |
| 2 |  América-MG#19Relegation: 94.1% | 94.1% |
| 3 | Avaí#18Promotion: 0.4%Relegation: 48.0% | 48.0% |
| 4 | Londrina#17Promotion: 0.4%Relegation: 46.8% | 46.8% |
| 5 | Ceará#16Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.0%Relegation: 34.1% | 34.1% |
| 6 | Botafogo-SP#15Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.4%Relegation: 19.6% | 19.6% |
| 7 | Cuiabá#14Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 3.3%Relegation: 17.0% | 17.0% |
| 8 | Náutico#13Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 14.3% | 14.3% |
| 9 | São Bernardo#12Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 7.7%Relegation: 7.8% | 7.8% |
| 10 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 9.1%Relegation: 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 11 | Sport#10Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 12 | Goiás#9Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 13 | CRB#8Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 3.7% | 3.7% |
| 14 | Atlético-GO#7Winner: 2.9%Promotion: 21.8%Relegation: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 15 | Novorizontino#6Winner: 6.8%Promotion: 36.5%Relegation: 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 16 | Vila Nova#4Winner: 8.9%Promotion: 43.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 17 | Fortaleza#5Winner: 9.4%Promotion: 44.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 18 | Juventude#3Winner: 12.5%Promotion: 51.7%Relegation: 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 19 | Operário-PR#2Winner: 12.0%Promotion: 51.0%Relegation: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 20 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Criciúma#1Winner: 41.1%Promotion: 82.5% | 20 | 40 | 41% | 83% | — |
2 | Operário-PR#2Winner: 12.0%Promotion: 51.0%Relegation: 0.1% | 20 | 35 | 12% | 51% | 0% |
3↑1 | Juventude#3Winner: 12.5%Promotion: 51.7%Relegation: 0.2% | 20 | 35 | 13% | 52% | 0% |
4↓1 | Vila Nova#4Winner: 8.9%Promotion: 43.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 20 | 34 | 9% | 44% | 0% |
5 | Fortaleza#5Winner: 9.4%Promotion: 44.7%Relegation: 0.3% | 20 | 34 | 9% | 45% | 0% |
6 | Novorizontino#6Winner: 6.8%Promotion: 36.5%Relegation: 0.5% | 20 | 33 | 7% | 37% | 1% |
7↑1 | Atlético-GO#7Winner: 2.9%Promotion: 21.8%Relegation: 1.7% | 20 | 31 | 3% | 22% | 2% |
8↑4 | CRB#8Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 3.7% | 20 | 29 | 2% | 14% | 4% |
9↓2 | Goiás#9Winner: 1.5%Promotion: 13.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 20 | 29 | 2% | 14% | 4% |
10↓1 | Sport#10Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 4.3% | 20 | 29 | 1% | 12% | 4% |
11 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 9.1%Relegation: 6.4% | 20 | 28 | 1% | 9% | 6% |
12↓2 | São Bernardo#12Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 7.7%Relegation: 7.8% | 20 | 27 | 1% | 8% | 8% |
13 | Náutico#13Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 14.3% | 20 | 25 | 0% | 4% | 14% |
14↑1 | Cuiabá#14Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 3.3%Relegation: 17.0% | 20 | 25 | 0% | 3% | 17% |
15↓1 | Botafogo-SP#15Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.4%Relegation: 19.6% | 20 | 24 | 0% | 2% | 20% |
16↑2 | Ceará#16Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 1.0%Relegation: 34.1% | 20 | 22 | 0% | 1% | 34% |
17↓1 | Londrina#17Promotion: 0.4%Relegation: 46.8% | 20 | 20 | — | 0% | 47% |
18↓1 | Avaí#18Promotion: 0.4%Relegation: 48.0% | 20 | 20 | — | 0% | 48% |
19↑1 | América-MG#19Relegation: 94.1% | 20 | 11 | — | — | 94% |
20↓1 | Ponte Preta#20Relegation: 96.9% | 20 | 9 | — | — | 97% |
WinnerPromotionRelegation
After Round 20: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Operário-PR's Promotion probability climbed from 14.7% to 51% (+36.3%).
- ↓Vila Nova's Promotion probability dropped from 77.2% to 43.7% (-33.5%).
- ↓Cuiabá's Relegation probability dropped from 33.3% to 17% (-16.3%).
- ↑Ceará's Relegation probability climbed from 18.4% to 34.1% (+15.7%).
- ↓Fortaleza's Promotion probability dropped from 60.3% to 44.7% (-15.6%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Operário-PR#2Winner: 12.0%Promotion: 51.0%Relegation: 0.1%10:30 PMSão Bernardo#12Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 7.7%Relegation: 7.8%
10:30 PMSão Bernardo#12Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 7.7%Relegation: 7.8%33%
42%
48%
24%
Athletic Club#11Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 9.1%Relegation: 6.4%2:00 PMCriciúma#1Winner: 41.1%Promotion: 82.5%
2:00 PMCriciúma#1Winner: 41.1%Promotion: 82.5%45%
27%
Náutico#13Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 4.0%Relegation: 14.3%7:00 PMAtlético-GO#7Winner: 2.9%Promotion: 21.8%Relegation: 1.7%
7:00 PMAtlético-GO#7Winner: 2.9%Promotion: 21.8%Relegation: 1.7%47%
24%
Novorizontino#6Winner: 6.8%Promotion: 36.5%Relegation: 0.5%7:00 PMJuventude#3Winner: 12.5%Promotion: 51.7%Relegation: 0.2%
7:00 PMJuventude#3Winner: 12.5%Promotion: 51.7%Relegation: 0.2%59%
18%
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Winner:
Promotion:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Criciúma currently have the highest title probability at 41%. With 18 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Ponte Preta currently faces the highest relegation risk at 97%, followed by América-MG at 94%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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