Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 6 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vila Nova#1Winner: 11.5%Promotion: 36.6%Relegation: 7.2% | 11.5% |
| 2 |  Fortaleza#2Winner: 8.8%Promotion: 30.9%Relegation: 9.6% | 8.8% |
| 3 |  São Bernardo#3Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.6%Relegation: 11.4% | 7.4% |
| 4 |  Criciúma#4Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.5%Relegation: 11.4% | 7.4% |
| 5 |  Juventude#5Winner: 7.3%Promotion: 27.1%Relegation: 11.6% | 7.3% |
| 6 |  Ceará#6Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 6.9% |
| 7 |  Sport#7Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 6.9% |
| 8 |  Athletic Club#11Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 24.1%Relegation: 14.2% | 6.3% |
| 9 |  Operário-PR#8Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 21.9%Relegation: 15.3% | 5.3% |
| 10 |  Botafogo-SP#10Winner: 4.4%Promotion: 19.1%Relegation: 18.0% | 4.4% |
| 11 |  Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.7%Relegation: 18.3% | 4.3% |
| 12 |  Avaí#12Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.6%Relegation: 18.2% | 4.3% |
| 13 |  Náutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1% | 3.7% |
| 14 |  Atlético-GO#13Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 22.2% | 3.2% |
| 15 |  Ponte Preta#14Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.3% | 3.2% |
| 16 |  Goiás#15Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.4% | 3.2% |
| 17 |  Cuiabá#16Winner: 3.0%Promotion: 14.4%Relegation: 23.3% | 3.0% |
| 18 |  Londrina#18Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 9.6%Relegation: 31.9% | 1.8% |
| 19 |  América-MG#20Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.7% | 0.7% |
| 20 |  CRB#19Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.5% | 0.6% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova#1Winner: 11.5%Promotion: 36.6%Relegation: 7.2% | 36.6% |
| 2 | Fortaleza#2Winner: 8.8%Promotion: 30.9%Relegation: 9.6% | 30.9% |
| 3 | São Bernardo#3Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.6%Relegation: 11.4% | 27.6% |
| 4 | Criciúma#4Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.5%Relegation: 11.4% | 27.5% |
| 5 | Juventude#5Winner: 7.3%Promotion: 27.1%Relegation: 11.6% | 27.1% |
| 6 | Ceará#6Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 26.1% |
| 7 | Sport#7Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 26.1% |
| 8 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 24.1%Relegation: 14.2% | 24.1% |
| 9 | Operário-PR#8Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 21.9%Relegation: 15.3% | 21.9% |
| 10 | Botafogo-SP#10Winner: 4.4%Promotion: 19.1%Relegation: 18.0% | 19.1% |
| 11 | Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.7%Relegation: 18.3% | 18.7% |
| 12 | Avaí#12Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.6%Relegation: 18.2% | 18.6% |
| 13 | Náutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1% | 16.8% |
| 14 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 22.2% | 15.4% |
| 15 | Ponte Preta#14Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.3% | 15.2% |
| 16 | Goiás#15Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.4% | 15.2% |
| 17 | Cuiabá#16Winner: 3.0%Promotion: 14.4%Relegation: 23.3% | 14.4% |
| 18 | Londrina#18Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 9.6%Relegation: 31.9% | 9.6% |
| 19 | CRB#19Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.5% | 4.5% |
| 20 | América-MG#20Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.7% | 4.5% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | América-MG#20Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.7% | 48.7% |
| 2 | CRB#19Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.5% | 48.5% |
| 3 | Londrina#18Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 9.6%Relegation: 31.9% | 31.9% |
| 4 | Cuiabá#16Winner: 3.0%Promotion: 14.4%Relegation: 23.3% | 23.3% |
| 5 | Goiás#15Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.4% | 22.4% |
| 6 | Ponte Preta#14Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.3% | 22.3% |
| 7 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 22.2% | 22.2% |
| 8 | Náutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1% | 21.1% |
| 9 | Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.7%Relegation: 18.3% | 18.3% |
| 10 | Avaí#12Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.6%Relegation: 18.2% | 18.2% |
| 11 | Botafogo-SP#10Winner: 4.4%Promotion: 19.1%Relegation: 18.0% | 18.0% |
| 12 | Operário-PR#8Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 21.9%Relegation: 15.3% | 15.3% |
| 13 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 24.1%Relegation: 14.2% | 14.2% |
| 14 | Ceará#6Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 12.2% |
| 15 | Sport#7Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 12.2% |
| 16 | Juventude#5Winner: 7.3%Promotion: 27.1%Relegation: 11.6% | 11.6% |
| 17 | São Bernardo#3Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.6%Relegation: 11.4% | 11.4% |
| 18 | Criciúma#4Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.5%Relegation: 11.4% | 11.4% |
| 19 | Fortaleza#2Winner: 8.8%Promotion: 30.9%Relegation: 9.6% | 9.6% |
| 20 | Vila Nova#1Winner: 11.5%Promotion: 36.6%Relegation: 7.2% | 7.2% |
Round 6 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Vila Nova#1Winner: 11.5%Promotion: 36.6%Relegation: 7.2% | 6 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
2 | Fortaleza#2Winner: 8.8%Promotion: 30.9%Relegation: 9.6% | 6 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 |
3↑6 | São Bernardo#3Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.6%Relegation: 11.4% | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
4↑6 | Criciúma#4Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.5%Relegation: 11.4% | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 |
5↑3 | Juventude#5Winner: 7.3%Promotion: 27.1%Relegation: 11.6% | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
6↓3 | Ceará#6Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 6 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
7↑6 | Sport#7Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2% | 6 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
8↓2 | Operário-PR#8Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 21.9%Relegation: 15.3% | 6 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
9↓5 | Novorizontino#9Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.7%Relegation: 18.3% | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
10↑2 | Botafogo-SP#10Winner: 4.4%Promotion: 19.1%Relegation: 18.0% | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
11↓4 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 24.1%Relegation: 14.2% | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
12↓7 | Avaí#12Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.6%Relegation: 18.2% | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
13↑4 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 22.2% | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 |
14↑4 | Ponte Preta#14Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.3% | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 |
15↓4 | Goiás#15Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.4% | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 |
16↓1 | Cuiabá#16Winner: 3.0%Promotion: 14.4%Relegation: 23.3% | 6 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
17↓3 | Náutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1% | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 |
18↓2 | Londrina#18Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 9.6%Relegation: 31.9% | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 |
19 | CRB#19Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.5% | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 |
20 | América-MG#20Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.7% | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 |
WinnerPromotionRelegation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Athletic Club#11Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 24.1%Relegation: 14.2%10:00 PMNáutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1%
10:00 PMNáutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1%41%
32%
Atlético-GO#13Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 22.2%3:00 PMJuventude#5Winner: 7.3%Promotion: 27.1%Relegation: 11.6%
3:00 PMJuventude#5Winner: 7.3%Promotion: 27.1%Relegation: 11.6%44%
30%
São Bernardo#3Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 27.6%Relegation: 11.4%3:00 PMPonte Preta#14Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.3%
3:00 PMPonte Preta#14Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.3%23%
40%
Operário-PR#8Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 21.9%Relegation: 15.3%3:00 PMLondrina#18Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 9.6%Relegation: 31.9%
3:00 PMLondrina#18Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 9.6%Relegation: 31.9%44%
21%
Fortaleza#2Winner: 8.8%Promotion: 30.9%Relegation: 9.6%3:00 PMGoiás#15Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.4%
3:00 PMGoiás#15Winner: 3.2%Promotion: 15.2%Relegation: 22.4%36%
31%
Avaí#12Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.6%Relegation: 18.2%3:00 PMNovorizontino#9Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.7%Relegation: 18.3%
3:00 PMNovorizontino#9Winner: 4.3%Promotion: 18.7%Relegation: 18.3%39%
31%
Botafogo-SP#10Winner: 4.4%Promotion: 19.1%Relegation: 18.0%3:00 PMNáutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1%
3:00 PMNáutico#17Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 16.8%Relegation: 21.1%55%
23%
Sport#7Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2%3:00 PMCeará#6Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2%
3:00 PMCeará#6Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 26.1%Relegation: 12.2%39%
32%
América-MG#20Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.7%3:00 PMCRB#19Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.5%
3:00 PMCRB#19Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 4.5%Relegation: 48.5%18%
52%
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Vila Nova currently have the highest title probability at 12%. With 32 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- América-MG currently faces the highest relegation risk at 49%, followed by CRB at 49%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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