Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 29 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vila Nova#1Win: 27.3%Promo: 75.2% | 27.3% |
| 2 |  Fortaleza#2Win: 21.9%Promo: 70.7% | 21.9% |
| 3 |  Novorizontino#4Win: 18.5%Promo: 64.9% | 18.5% |
| 4 |  Juventude#3Win: 16.8%Promo: 64.6% | 16.8% |
| 5 |  Criciúma#5Win: 8.1%Promo: 43.2% | 8.1% |
| 6 |  Atlético-GO#6Win: 2.4%Promo: 21.5% | 2.4% |
| 7 |  Operário-PR#8Win: 2.1%Promo: 19.0% | 2.1% |
| 8 |  CRB#7Win: 1.6%Promo: 17.1% | 1.6% |
| 9 |  Sport#9Win: 0.6%Promo: 9.8% | 0.6% |
| 10 |  Goiás#10Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.9%Releg: 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 11 |  São Bernardo#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.9%Releg: 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 12 |  Athletic Club#12Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.0%Releg: 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 13 |  Cuiabá#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 0.6% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova#1Win: 27.3%Promo: 75.2% | 75.2% |
| 2 | Fortaleza#2Win: 21.9%Promo: 70.7% | 70.7% |
| 3 | Novorizontino#4Win: 18.5%Promo: 64.9% | 64.9% |
| 4 | Juventude#3Win: 16.8%Promo: 64.6% | 64.6% |
| 5 | Criciúma#5Win: 8.1%Promo: 43.2% | 43.2% |
| 6 | Atlético-GO#6Win: 2.4%Promo: 21.5% | 21.5% |
| 7 | Operário-PR#8Win: 2.1%Promo: 19.0% | 19.0% |
| 8 | CRB#7Win: 1.6%Promo: 17.1% | 17.1% |
| 9 | Sport#9Win: 0.6%Promo: 9.8% | 9.8% |
| 10 | Goiás#10Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.9%Releg: 0.1% | 4.9% |
| 11 | São Bernardo#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.9%Releg: 0.3% | 2.9% |
| 12 | Cuiabá#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 13 | Athletic Club#12Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.0%Releg: 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 14 |  Náutico#14Promo: 1.3%Releg: 1.7% | 1.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  América-MG#19Releg: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Ponte Preta#20Releg: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Londrina#18Releg: 78.4% | 78.4% |
| 4 |  Avaí#17Releg: 62.4% | 62.4% |
| 5 |  Botafogo-SP#16Releg: 40.7% | 40.7% |
| 6 |  Ceará#15Releg: 15.2% | 15.2% |
| 7 | Náutico#14Promo: 1.3%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 8 | Cuiabá#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 9 | Athletic Club#12Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.0%Releg: 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 10 | São Bernardo#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.9%Releg: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 11 | Goiás#10Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.9%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 29 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑2 | Vila Nova#1Win: 27.3%Promo: 75.2% | 29 | 51 | 27% | 75% | — |
2↑2 | Fortaleza#2Win: 21.9%Promo: 70.7% | 29 | 51 | 22% | 71% | — |
3↓2 | Juventude#3Win: 16.8%Promo: 64.6% | 29 | 50 | 17% | 65% | — |
4↓2 | Novorizontino#4Win: 18.5%Promo: 64.9% | 29 | 50 | 19% | 65% | — |
5 | Criciúma#5Win: 8.1%Promo: 43.2% | 28 | 47 | 8% | 43% | — |
6 | Atlético-GO#6Win: 2.4%Promo: 21.5% | 29 | 46 | 2% | 22% | — |
7 | CRB#7Win: 1.6%Promo: 17.1% | 29 | 45 | 2% | 17% | — |
8 | Operário-PR#8Win: 2.1%Promo: 19.0% | 28 | 44 | 2% | 19% | — |
9 | Sport#9Win: 0.6%Promo: 9.8% | 29 | 44 | 1% | 10% | — |
10↑2 | Goiás#10Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.9%Releg: 0.1% | 29 | 42 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
11↑2 | São Bernardo#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.9%Releg: 0.3% | 29 | 41 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
12↓2 | Athletic Club#12Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.0%Releg: 0.5% | 29 | 41 | 0% | 2% | 1% |
13↓2 | Cuiabá#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 0.6% | 28 | 40 | 0% | 3% | 1% |
14 | Náutico#14Promo: 1.3%Releg: 1.7% | 28 | 38 | — | 1% | 2% |
15 | Ceará#15Releg: 15.2% | 29 | 35 | — | — | 15% |
16 | Botafogo-SP#16Releg: 40.7% | 29 | 32 | — | — | 41% |
17 | Avaí#17Releg: 62.4% | 29 | 30 | — | — | 62% |
18 | Londrina#18Releg: 78.4% | 29 | 28 | — | — | 78% |
19 | América-MG#19Releg: 100.0% | 29 | 17 | — | — | 100% |
20 | Ponte Preta#20Releg: 100.0% | 29 | 13 | — | — | 100% |
WinPromoReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Novorizontino#4Winner: 18.5%Promotion: 64.9%10:30 PMSão Bernardo#11Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.9%Relegation: 0.3%
10:30 PMSão Bernardo#11Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.9%Relegation: 0.3%44%
24%
43%
28%
35%
31%
After Round 29: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓CRB's Promo probability dropped from 39.9% to 17.1% (-22.8%).
- ↓Vila Nova's Win probability dropped from 45.6% to 27.3% (-18.3%).
- ↑Fortaleza's Promo probability climbed from 57.5% to 70.7% (+13.2%).
- ↑Londrina's Releg probability climbed from 66.8% to 78.4% (+11.6%).
- ↑Atlético-GO's Promo probability climbed from 11.5% to 21.5% (+10%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Vila Nova currently have the highest title probability at 27%. With 9 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- América-MG currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by Ponte Preta at 100%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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