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Spain World Cup 2026 — 100.0% Winner

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 104 of 94 · Rank #1 · 3 MP

How far can Spain go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Spain's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Spain FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
100.0%
Winner
0.0%
Group Stage Exit
#1
Position
WWWWW
Last 5 matches
Spain are the clear favourites for Winner at 100.0%, currently ranked 1st — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Spain are 1st in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 3 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 100.0% chance of winner — with -10 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, Spain have recorded 5 wins. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Spain's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 100.0%Since 2026-07-19
  • Final: 100.0%Since 2026-07-14
  • Semifinals: 100.0%Since 2026-07-10
  • Quarterfinals: 100.0%Since 2026-07-06
  • Round of 16: 100.0%Since 2026-07-03
  • Knockout: 100.0%Since 2026-06-21
  • Group Stage Exit: 0.0%Since 2026-06-21

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Czech Republic Final ChancesSouth Korea Semifinals ChancesMexico Semifinals ChancesSouth Africa Quarterfinals ChancesBosnia and Herzegovina Quarterfinals Chances

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-07-19Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%1 - 0Argentina#38Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-07-14France#36Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%0 - 2Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-07-10Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%2 - 1Belgium#28Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-07-06Portugal#43Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%0 - 1Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-07-02Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%3 - 0Austria#40Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-26Uruguay#30Group Stage Exit: 100.0%0 - 1Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-21Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%4 - 0Saudi Arabia#32Group Stage Exit: 100.0%
2026-06-15Spain#1Winner: 100.0%Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%0 - 0Cape Verde#31Knockout: 100.0%