Mexico Winner Chances
FIFA World Cup 2026
Mexico face long odds for winning the title, with only a 4.1% probability.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 4.1% |
| Final | 7.9% |
| Semifinals | 15.4% |
| Quarterfinals | 29.1% |
| Round of 16 | 51.0% |
| Knockout Stage | 90.3% |
| Group Stage Exit | 9.7% |
Mexico are currently 8th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 table with 0 matches played (0W 0D 0L, 0 pts).
🔍 What This Means
At 4.1%, Mexico are currently a long shot for winning the title. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Mexico's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page.
🤖 How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations after every round of matches. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Mexico achieves winning the title across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 FIFA World Cup 2026 — Winner odds for every team
| Brazil | 7.7% |
| Belgium | 7.4% |
| Argentina | 5.4% |
| France | 5.1% |
| Spain | 5.0% |
| England | 4.6% |
| Portugal | 4.2% |
| Germany | 3.9% |
| Netherlands | 3.6% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full FIFA World Cup 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.