FIFA World Cup 2026
PROYECCIÓN ELIMINATORIA
Instantánea de probabilidades en 9 rondas entre fase de grupos y eliminatorias.
A partir de los octavos de final, el Mundial 2026 se convierte en un torneo de eliminación directa. Esta página sigue el camino más probable hacia la final para los principales candidatos, basándose en simulaciones en vivo que se actualizan a medida que cambian las clasificaciones de grupo y los resultados.
Campeón esperado
Bélgica
Campeón: 11.6%
Proyección del cuadro eliminatorio
Cuadro previsto basado en la simulación del ranking FIFA.
Final
Bélgica
1° Grp G
vs
Brasil
1° Grp C
52%48%
Semifinales
Francia
1° Grp I
vs
Bélgica
1° Grp G
50%50%
Brasil
1° Grp C
vs
Argentina
1° Grp J
58%42%
Cuartos de final
Francia
1° Grp I
vs
Países Bajos
1° Grp F
69%31%
España
1° Grp H
vs
Bélgica
1° Grp G
25%75%
Brasil
1° Grp C
vs
Inglaterra
1° Grp L
66%34%
Argentina
1° Grp J
vs
Portugal
1° Grp K
68%32%
Octavos de final
Alemania
1° Grp E
vs
Francia
1° Grp I
39%61%
República Checa
2° Grp A
vs
Países Bajos
1° Grp F
15%85%
Colombia
2° Grp K
vs
España
1° Grp H
33%67%
Estados Unidos
1° Grp D
vs
Bélgica
1° Grp G
34%66%
Brasil
1° Grp C
vs
Ecuador
2° Grp E
91%9%
México
1° Grp A
vs
Inglaterra
1° Grp L
48%52%
Argentina
1° Grp J
vs
Turquía
2° Grp D
93%7%
Suiza
1° Grp B
vs
Portugal
1° Grp K
40%60%
Dieciseisavos de final
Alemania
1° Grp E
vs
Escocia
3rd (A/B/C/D/F)
64%36%
Francia
1° Grp I
vs
Escocia
3rd (C/D/F/G/H)
72%28%
República Checa
2° Grp A
vs
Canadá
2° Grp B
54%46%
Países Bajos
1° Grp F
vs
Marruecos
2° Grp C
71%29%
Colombia
2° Grp K
vs
Croacia
2° Grp L
59%41%
España
1° Grp H
vs
Austria
2° Grp J
70%30%
Estados Unidos
1° Grp D
vs
Curazao
3rd (A/E/G/J/L)
72%28%
Bélgica
1° Grp G
vs
Curazao
3rd (A/E/H/I/J)
74%26%
Brasil
1° Grp C
vs
Suecia
2° Grp F
65%35%
Ecuador
2° Grp E
vs
Senegal
2° Grp I
53%47%
México
1° Grp A
vs
Escocia
3rd (C/E/F/H/I)
75%25%
Inglaterra
1° Grp L
vs
Argelia
3rd (B/H/I/J/K)
75%25%
Argentina
1° Grp J
vs
Uruguay
2° Grp H
72%28%
Turquía
2° Grp D
vs
Egipto
2° Grp G
62%38%
Suiza
1° Grp B
vs
Curazao
3rd (E/F/G/I/J)
68%32%
Portugal
1° Grp K
vs
Argelia
3rd (B/D/J/L)
70%30%
Las posiciones reflejan los resultados esperados de los grupos. Los terceros muestran los 8 clasificados más probables.
Tabla de probabilidades eliminatorias
| # | Equipo | Eliminatorias | Octavos de final | Cuartos de final | Semifinales | Final | Campeón |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 96.5% | 68.7% | 41.1% | 30.2% | 16.8% | 11.6% | |
| 2 | 94.4% | 66.4% | 35.8% | 26.9% | 17.7% | 11.4% | |
| 3 | 91.9% | 69.7% | 45.7% | 28.6% | 16.4% | 10.9% | |
| 4 | 95.5% | 64.0% | 42.7% | 31.4% | 15.9% | 7.8% | |
| 5 | 95.9% | 65.3% | 36.3% | 24.3% | 13.6% | 7.2% | |
| 6 | 98.1% | 62.1% | 42.9% | 26.5% | 15.9% | 5.9% | |
| 7 | 92.7% | 64.3% | 34.5% | 18.7% | 10.9% | 5.6% | |
| 8 | 88.2% | 55.4% | 33.2% | 16.8% | 9.9% | 5.2% | |
| 9 | 98.4% | 76.7% | 50.7% | 21.3% | 12.8% | 5.1% | |
| 10 | 94.4% | 59.8% | 28.1% | 14.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | |
| 11 | 92.9% | 64.6% | 34.8% | 16.6% | 7.2% | 3.6% | |
| 12 | 89.9% | 59.1% | 36.6% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | |
| 13 | 81.7% | 44.5% | 21.4% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% | |
| 14 | 88.5% | 55.2% | 26.6% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| 15 | 90.9% | 50.6% | 21.4% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | |
| 16 | 78.5% | 39.1% | 15.7% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| 17 | 85.7% | 47.5% | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 65.4% | 28.3% | 15.0% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 87.1% | 42.3% | 15.1% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 62.7% | 26.1% | 13.7% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 56.9% | 32.2% | 16.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | |
| 22 | 62.0% | 23.6% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 88.0% | 42.4% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 72.4% | 24.0% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 67.8% | 27.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 62.7% | 27.5% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 83.0% | 27.5% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 73.1% | 26.1% | 10.7% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 47.5% | 14.5% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 68.8% | 24.0% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 57.9% | 24.3% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 56.2% | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 70.7% | 21.8% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 67.8% | 21.8% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 39.7% | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 54.7% | 17.6% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 49.7% | 15.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 44.3% | 13.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 30.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 65.0% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 43.8% | 12.7% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 34.8% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 42.5% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 44 | 20.8% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 45 | 21.0% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 46 | 18.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 47 | 16.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 48 | 10.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |