Brasileirão 2025 Round 28

Updated at 16-10-2025 23:26

Probability of Winning the Championship

#	Team	Probs
1	Palmeiras	65.5%
2	Flamengo	31.2%
3	Cruzeiro	2.9%
4	Mirassol	0.4%

Probability of access to Libertadores Group Phase

#	Team	Probs
1	Palmeiras	100.0%
2	Flamengo	99.8%
3	Cruzeiro	92.2%
4	Mirassol	66.1%
5	Bahia	20.7%
6	Botafogo	12.5%
7	Fluminense	5.0%
8	São Paulo	1.4%
9	Ceará	0.7%
10	Vasco	0.5%
11	Bragantino	0.4%
12	Grêmio	0.4%
13	Atlético-MG	0.2%
14	Internacional	0.1%
15	Santos	0.1%

Probability of access to Libertadores Qualification Phase

#	Team	Probs
1	Bahia	47.9%
2	Botafogo	43.0%
3	Mirassol	28.3%
4	Fluminense	25.3%
5	São Paulo	12.5%
6	Ceará	8.1%
7	Cruzeiro	7.3%
8	Vasco	6.4%
9	Grêmio	6.3%
10	Bragantino	6.0%
11	Atlético-MG	3.4%
12	Internacional	2.4%
13	Corinthians	1.5%
14	Santos	1.2%
15	Flamengo	0.2%
16	Vitória	0.1%

Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana

#	Team	Probs
1	São Paulo	65.7%
2	Fluminense	60.9%
3	Ceará	59.4%
4	Bragantino	58.7%
5	Grêmio	57.7%
6	Vasco	56.5%
7	Atlético-MG	47.5%
8	Botafogo	42.6%
9	Internacional	38.8%
10	Corinthians	35.0%
11	Santos	30.3%
12	Bahia	30.2%
13	Vitória	7.0%
14	Mirassol	5.6%
15	Fortaleza	2.6%
16	Juventude	1.0%
17	Cruzeiro	0.5%

Probability of being relegated to Series B at the end of the championship

#	Team	Probs
1	Sport	99.0%
2	Juventude	88.1%
3	Fortaleza	78.6%
4	Vitória	58.9%
5	Santos	19.8%
6	Corinthians	15.4%
7	Internacional	13.9%
8	Atlético-MG	9.2%
9	Bragantino	4.3%
10	Grêmio	3.9%
11	Vasco	3.8%
12	Ceará	3.5%
13	São Paulo	1.3%
14	Fluminense	0.3%

Round 28 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD
1	Palmeiras	61	19	4	4	51	23	28
2	Flamengo	58	17	7	3	53	13	40
3	Cruzeiro	53	15	8	5	41	21	20
4	Mirassol	49	13	10	5	47	30	17
5	Botafogo	43	12	7	9	37	26	11
6	Bahia	43	12	7	8	35	32	3
7	Fluminense	39	11	6	10	34	33	1
8	São Paulo	38	10	8	10	31	30	1
9	Vasco	36	10	6	12	44	41	3
10	Bragantino	36	10	6	12	34	43	-9
11	Grêmio	36	9	9	10	30	33	-3
12	Ceará	35	9	8	10	27	25	2
13	Corinthians	33	8	9	11	30	35	-5
14	Atlético-MG	33	8	9	10	26	31	-5
15	Internacional	32	8	8	11	33	41	-8
16	Santos	31	8	7	12	28	39	-11
17	Vitória	28	6	10	12	26	43	-17
18	Fortaleza	24	6	6	15	26	43	-17
19	Juventude	24	6	6	16	22	52	-30
20	Sport	17	2	11	14	21	42	-21