Brasileirão 2025 Round 15

Updated at 20-07-2025 17:27

Probability of Winning the Championship

#	Team	Probs
1	Cruzeiro	34.6%
2	Flamengo	18.2%
3	Palmeiras	10.1%
4	Bragantino	8.7%
5	Bahia	7.8%
6	Botafogo	5.3%
7	Fluminense	4.8%
8	Mirassol	4.0%
9	Atlético-MG	2.9%
10	Ceará	0.9%
11	Corinthians	0.7%
12	Grêmio	0.6%
13	Internacional	0.5%
14	São Paulo	0.2%
15	Vasco	0.2%
16	Santos	0.2%
17	Vitória	0.1%
18	Juventude	0.1%

Probability of access to Libertadores Group Phase

#	Team	Probs
1	Cruzeiro	77.2%
2	Flamengo	58.7%
3	Palmeiras	43.0%
4	Bragantino	41.0%
5	Bahia	37.7%
6	Botafogo	29.0%
7	Fluminense	26.9%
8	Mirassol	24.4%
9	Atlético-MG	20.1%
10	Ceará	8.8%
11	Corinthians	7.2%
12	Grêmio	6.7%
13	Internacional	6.6%
14	São Paulo	2.9%
15	Vasco	2.6%
16	Santos	2.6%
17	Vitória	2.1%
18	Juventude	1.6%
19	Fortaleza	0.8%
20	Sport	0.1%

Probability of access to Libertadores Qualification Phase

#	Team	Probs
1	Bahia	18.5%
2	Bragantino	18.4%
3	Palmeiras	17.6%
4	Botafogo	17.1%
5	Fluminense	16.4%
6	Flamengo	16.2%
7	Mirassol	15.8%
8	Atlético-MG	14.6%
9	Cruzeiro	11.7%
10	Ceará	9.1%
11	Corinthians	8.7%
12	Grêmio	7.9%
13	Internacional	7.7%
14	São Paulo	4.4%
15	Vasco	3.9%
16	Santos	3.9%
17	Vitória	3.4%
18	Juventude	2.6%
19	Fortaleza	1.7%
20	Sport	0.3%

Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana

#	Team	Probs
1	Atlético-MG	42.2%
2	Ceará	40.7%
3	Mirassol	40.4%
4	Corinthians	39.9%
5	Fluminense	39.0%
6	Botafogo	38.6%
7	Internacional	38.0%
8	Grêmio	37.9%
9	Bahia	34.0%
10	Bragantino	32.7%
11	Palmeiras	30.8%
12	São Paulo	29.9%
13	Santos	27.5%
14	Vasco	27.3%
15	Vitória	25.9%
16	Juventude	21.7%
17	Flamengo	21.4%
18	Fortaleza	16.5%
19	Cruzeiro	10.3%
20	Sport	5.1%

Probability of being relegated to Series B at the end of the championship

#	Team	Probs
1	Sport	79.9%
2	Fortaleza	52.4%
3	Juventude	43.3%
4	Vitória	36.0%
5	Vasco	33.9%
6	Santos	33.7%
7	São Paulo	30.1%
8	Internacional	18.5%
9	Grêmio	18.4%
10	Corinthians	16.0%
11	Ceará	14.6%
12	Atlético-MG	6.2%
13	Mirassol	4.6%
14	Fluminense	4.1%
15	Botafogo	3.3%
16	Bahia	1.7%
17	Palmeiras	1.6%
18	Bragantino	1.1%
19	Flamengo	0.4%

Round 15 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD
1	Cruzeiro	33	10	3	2	25	9	16
2	Flamengo	27	8	3	2	26	5	21
3	Bragantino	27	8	3	4	18	15	3
4	Bahia	25	7	4	3	17	13	4
5	Palmeiras	23	7	2	3	13	9	4
6	Botafogo	22	6	4	3	16	7	9
7	Mirassol	21	5	6	2	21	13	8
8	Fluminense	20	6	2	4	15	14	1
9	Atlético-MG	20	5	5	3	14	12	2
10	Corinthians	19	5	4	6	15	19	-4
11	Ceará	18	5	3	6	14	13	1
12	Internacional	17	4	5	5	14	18	-4
13	Grêmio	17	4	5	5	14	20	-6
14	São Paulo	16	3	7	5	13	18	-5
15	Vitória	15	3	6	6	11	15	-4
16	Vasco	14	4	2	8	15	18	-3
17	Santos	14	4	2	8	12	17	-5
18	Juventude	11	3	2	8	10	26	-16
19	Fortaleza	11	2	5	7	13	20	-7
20	Sport	3	0	3	9	5	20	-15