Championship 26/27 — Round 8 of 46
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City#1Win: 13.8%Promo: 24.5%Playoff: 29.2%Releg: 1.6% | 13.8% |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton#5Win: 9.8%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 26.9%Releg: 2.9% | 9.8% |
| 3 |  West Ham#2Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.7%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 3.1% | 9.5% |
| 4 |  Middlesbrough#3Win: 8.8%Promo: 16.7%Playoff: 26.2%Releg: 3.1% | 8.8% |
| 5 |  Southampton#4Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.5%Playoff: 24.5%Releg: 4.2% | 7.5% |
| 6 |  West Brom#6Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.3%Playoff: 24.2%Releg: 4.2% | 6.7% |
| 7 |  QPR#7Win: 5.4%Promo: 11.0%Playoff: 22.1%Releg: 5.4% | 5.4% |
| 8 |  Stoke City#8Win: 5.3%Promo: 10.8%Playoff: 21.8%Releg: 5.5% | 5.3% |
| 9 |  Bristol City#9Win: 5.1%Promo: 10.3%Playoff: 21.4%Releg: 5.7% | 5.1% |
| 10 |  Charlton#10Win: 3.8%Promo: 7.9%Playoff: 18.3%Releg: 7.9% | 3.8% |
| 11 |  Birmingham#11Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.7%Playoff: 17.0%Releg: 9.0% | 3.1% |
| 12 |  Millwall#12Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.6%Playoff: 16.9%Releg: 9.3% | 3.1% |
| 13 |  Lincoln#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.5%Playoff: 16.2%Releg: 9.6% | 3.0% |
| 14 |  Wrexham#14Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 12.4% | 2.2% |
| 15 |  Bolton#15Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.8%Releg: 12.5% | 2.2% |
| 16 |  Portsmouth#19Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.7%Playoff: 12.9%Releg: 13.9% | 2.1% |
| 17 |  Blackburn#16Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.2%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.3% | 1.8% |
| 18 |  Norwich City#17Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.2% | 1.7% |
| 19 |  Sheffield Utd#18Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.0%Playoff: 11.9%Releg: 14.7% | 1.7% |
| 20 |  Watford#20Win: 1.2%Promo: 2.9%Playoff: 9.8%Releg: 19.1% | 1.2% |
| 21 |  Cardiff#21Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.4%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 21.7% | 1.0% |
| 22 |  Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 32.1% | 0.5% |
| 23 |  Preston#23Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.2%Releg: 36.3% | 0.3% |
| 24 |  Burnley#24Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.1%Releg: 37.3% | 0.3% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City#1Win: 13.8%Promo: 24.5%Playoff: 29.2%Releg: 1.6% | 24.5% |
| 2 | Wolverhampton#5Win: 9.8%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 26.9%Releg: 2.9% | 18.2% |
| 3 | West Ham#2Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.7%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 3.1% | 17.7% |
| 4 | Middlesbrough#3Win: 8.8%Promo: 16.7%Playoff: 26.2%Releg: 3.1% | 16.7% |
| 5 | Southampton#4Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.5%Playoff: 24.5%Releg: 4.2% | 14.5% |
| 6 | West Brom#6Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.3%Playoff: 24.2%Releg: 4.2% | 13.3% |
| 7 | QPR#7Win: 5.4%Promo: 11.0%Playoff: 22.1%Releg: 5.4% | 11.0% |
| 8 | Stoke City#8Win: 5.3%Promo: 10.8%Playoff: 21.8%Releg: 5.5% | 10.8% |
| 9 | Bristol City#9Win: 5.1%Promo: 10.3%Playoff: 21.4%Releg: 5.7% | 10.3% |
| 10 | Charlton#10Win: 3.8%Promo: 7.9%Playoff: 18.3%Releg: 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 11 | Birmingham#11Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.7%Playoff: 17.0%Releg: 9.0% | 6.7% |
| 12 | Millwall#12Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.6%Playoff: 16.9%Releg: 9.3% | 6.6% |
| 13 | Lincoln#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.5%Playoff: 16.2%Releg: 9.6% | 6.5% |
| 14 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 12.4% | 5.0% |
| 15 | Bolton#15Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.8%Releg: 12.5% | 5.0% |
| 16 | Portsmouth#19Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.7%Playoff: 12.9%Releg: 13.9% | 4.7% |
| 17 | Blackburn#16Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.2%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.3% | 4.2% |
| 18 | Norwich City#17Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.2% | 4.1% |
| 19 | Sheffield Utd#18Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.0%Playoff: 11.9%Releg: 14.7% | 4.0% |
| 20 | Watford#20Win: 1.2%Promo: 2.9%Playoff: 9.8%Releg: 19.1% | 2.9% |
| 21 | Cardiff#21Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.4%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 21.7% | 2.4% |
| 22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 32.1% | 1.3% |
| 23 | Preston#23Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.2%Releg: 36.3% | 0.9% |
| 24 | Burnley#24Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.1%Releg: 37.3% | 0.9% |
Chances of participation in the playoff phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City#1Win: 13.8%Promo: 24.5%Playoff: 29.2%Releg: 1.6% | 29.2% |
| 2 | Wolverhampton#5Win: 9.8%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 26.9%Releg: 2.9% | 26.9% |
| 3 | West Ham#2Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.7%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 3.1% | 26.6% |
| 4 | Middlesbrough#3Win: 8.8%Promo: 16.7%Playoff: 26.2%Releg: 3.1% | 26.2% |
| 5 | Southampton#4Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.5%Playoff: 24.5%Releg: 4.2% | 24.5% |
| 6 | West Brom#6Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.3%Playoff: 24.2%Releg: 4.2% | 24.2% |
| 7 | QPR#7Win: 5.4%Promo: 11.0%Playoff: 22.1%Releg: 5.4% | 22.1% |
| 8 | Stoke City#8Win: 5.3%Promo: 10.8%Playoff: 21.8%Releg: 5.5% | 21.8% |
| 9 | Bristol City#9Win: 5.1%Promo: 10.3%Playoff: 21.4%Releg: 5.7% | 21.4% |
| 10 | Charlton#10Win: 3.8%Promo: 7.9%Playoff: 18.3%Releg: 7.9% | 18.3% |
| 11 | Birmingham#11Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.7%Playoff: 17.0%Releg: 9.0% | 17.0% |
| 12 | Millwall#12Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.6%Playoff: 16.9%Releg: 9.3% | 16.9% |
| 13 | Lincoln#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.5%Playoff: 16.2%Releg: 9.6% | 16.2% |
| 14 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 12.4% | 13.9% |
| 15 | Bolton#15Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.8%Releg: 12.5% | 13.8% |
| 16 | Portsmouth#19Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.7%Playoff: 12.9%Releg: 13.9% | 12.9% |
| 17 | Blackburn#16Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.2%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.3% | 12.3% |
| 18 | Norwich City#17Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.2% | 12.3% |
| 19 | Sheffield Utd#18Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.0%Playoff: 11.9%Releg: 14.7% | 11.9% |
| 20 | Watford#20Win: 1.2%Promo: 2.9%Playoff: 9.8%Releg: 19.1% | 9.8% |
| 21 | Cardiff#21Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.4%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 21.7% | 8.2% |
| 22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 32.1% | 5.1% |
| 23 | Preston#23Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.2%Releg: 36.3% | 4.2% |
| 24 | Burnley#24Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.1%Releg: 37.3% | 4.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burnley#24Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.1%Releg: 37.3% | 37.3% |
| 2 | Preston#23Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.2%Releg: 36.3% | 36.3% |
| 3 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 32.1% | 32.1% |
| 4 | Cardiff#21Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.4%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 21.7% | 21.7% |
| 5 | Watford#20Win: 1.2%Promo: 2.9%Playoff: 9.8%Releg: 19.1% | 19.1% |
| 6 | Sheffield Utd#18Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.0%Playoff: 11.9%Releg: 14.7% | 14.7% |
| 7 | Blackburn#16Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.2%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.3% | 14.3% |
| 8 | Norwich City#17Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.2% | 14.2% |
| 9 | Portsmouth#19Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.7%Playoff: 12.9%Releg: 13.9% | 13.9% |
| 10 | Bolton#15Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.8%Releg: 12.5% | 12.5% |
| 11 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 12.4% | 12.4% |
| 12 | Lincoln#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.5%Playoff: 16.2%Releg: 9.6% | 9.6% |
| 13 | Millwall#12Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.6%Playoff: 16.9%Releg: 9.3% | 9.3% |
| 14 | Birmingham#11Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.7%Playoff: 17.0%Releg: 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 15 | Charlton#10Win: 3.8%Promo: 7.9%Playoff: 18.3%Releg: 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 16 | Bristol City#9Win: 5.1%Promo: 10.3%Playoff: 21.4%Releg: 5.7% | 5.7% |
| 17 | Stoke City#8Win: 5.3%Promo: 10.8%Playoff: 21.8%Releg: 5.5% | 5.5% |
| 18 | QPR#7Win: 5.4%Promo: 11.0%Playoff: 22.1%Releg: 5.4% | 5.4% |
| 19 | Southampton#4Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.5%Playoff: 24.5%Releg: 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 20 | West Brom#6Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.3%Playoff: 24.2%Releg: 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 21 | West Ham#2Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.7%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 22 | Middlesbrough#3Win: 8.8%Promo: 16.7%Playoff: 26.2%Releg: 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 23 | Wolverhampton#5Win: 9.8%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 26.9%Releg: 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 24 | Swansea City#1Win: 13.8%Promo: 24.5%Playoff: 29.2%Releg: 1.6% | 1.6% |
Round 8 of 46
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | PO | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑2 | Swansea City#1Win: 13.8%Promo: 24.5%Playoff: 29.2%Releg: 1.6% | 8 | 17 | 14% | 25% | 29% | 2% |
2↓1 | West Ham#2Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.7%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 3.1% | 8 | 15 | 10% | 18% | 27% | 3% |
3↑1 | Middlesbrough#3Win: 8.8%Promo: 16.7%Playoff: 26.2%Releg: 3.1% | 8 | 15 | 9% | 17% | 26% | 3% |
4↓2 | Southampton#4Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.5%Playoff: 24.5%Releg: 4.2% | 8 | 14 | 8% | 15% | 25% | 4% |
5↑3 | Wolverhampton#5Win: 9.8%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 26.9%Releg: 2.9% | 7 | 14 | 10% | 18% | 27% | 3% |
6↓1 | West Bromwich Albion#6Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.3%Playoff: 24.2%Releg: 4.2% | 8 | 14 | 7% | 13% | 24% | 4% |
7↓1 | Queens Park Rangers#7Win: 5.4%Promo: 11.0%Playoff: 22.1%Releg: 5.4% | 8 | 13 | 5% | 11% | 22% | 5% |
8↑4 | Stoke City#8Win: 5.3%Promo: 10.8%Playoff: 21.8%Releg: 5.5% | 8 | 13 | 5% | 11% | 22% | 6% |
9↑4 | Bristol City#9Win: 5.1%Promo: 10.3%Playoff: 21.4%Releg: 5.7% | 8 | 13 | 5% | 10% | 21% | 6% |
10↓3 | Charlton Athletic#10Win: 3.8%Promo: 7.9%Playoff: 18.3%Releg: 7.9% | 8 | 12 | 4% | 8% | 18% | 8% |
11↓1 | Birmingham City#11Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.7%Playoff: 17.0%Releg: 9.0% | 8 | 11 | 3% | 7% | 17% | 9% |
12↓1 | Millwall#12Win: 3.1%Promo: 6.6%Playoff: 16.9%Releg: 9.3% | 8 | 11 | 3% | 7% | 17% | 9% |
13↓4 | Lincoln#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.5%Playoff: 16.2%Releg: 9.6% | 8 | 11 | 3% | 7% | 16% | 10% |
14↑5 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 12.4% | 8 | 10 | 2% | 5% | 14% | 12% |
15↑5 | Bolton#15Win: 2.2%Promo: 5.0%Playoff: 13.8%Releg: 12.5% | 8 | 10 | 2% | 5% | 14% | 13% |
16 | Blackburn Rovers#16Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.2%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.3% | 8 | 9 | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% |
17↓3 | Norwich City#17Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 14.2% | 8 | 9 | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% |
18↓3 | Sheffield United#18Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.0%Playoff: 11.9%Releg: 14.7% | 8 | 9 | 2% | 4% | 12% | 15% |
19↓1 | Portsmouth#19Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.7%Playoff: 12.9%Releg: 13.9% | 7 | 8 | 2% | 5% | 13% | 14% |
20↓3 | Watford#20Win: 1.2%Promo: 2.9%Playoff: 9.8%Releg: 19.1% | 8 | 8 | 1% | 3% | 10% | 19% |
21 | Cardiff#21Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.4%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 21.7% | 8 | 7 | 1% | 2% | 8% | 22% |
22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 32.1% | 8 | 5 | 1% | 1% | 5% | 32% |
23 | Preston North End#23Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.2%Releg: 36.3% | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 36% |
24 | Burnley#24Win: 0.3%Promo: 0.9%Playoff: 4.1%Releg: 37.3% | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 37% |
WinPromoPlayoffReleg
Next matches
Derby County#22Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 1.3%Playoff: 5.1%Relegation: 32.1%11:00Wrexham#14Winner: 2.2%Promotion: 5.0%Playoff: 13.9%Relegation: 12.4%
11:00Wrexham#14Winner: 2.2%Promotion: 5.0%Playoff: 13.9%Relegation: 12.4%5%
83%
Blackburn#16Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 4.2%Playoff: 12.3%Relegation: 14.3%11:00Cardiff#21Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 2.4%Playoff: 8.2%Relegation: 21.7%
11:00Cardiff#21Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 2.4%Playoff: 8.2%Relegation: 21.7%61%
15%
West Brom#6Winner: 6.7%Promotion: 13.3%Playoff: 24.2%Relegation: 4.2%08:30Birmingham#11Winner: 3.1%Promotion: 6.7%Playoff: 17.0%Relegation: 9.0%
08:30Birmingham#11Winner: 3.1%Promotion: 6.7%Playoff: 17.0%Relegation: 9.0%28%
45%
Middlesbrough#3Winner: 8.8%Promotion: 16.7%Playoff: 26.2%Relegation: 3.1%11:00Wolverhampton#5Winner: 9.8%Promotion: 18.2%Playoff: 26.9%Relegation: 2.9%
11:00Wolverhampton#5Winner: 9.8%Promotion: 18.2%Playoff: 26.9%Relegation: 2.9%33%
42%
Bolton#15Winner: 2.2%Promotion: 5.0%Playoff: 13.8%Relegation: 12.5%11:00Stoke City#8Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 10.8%Playoff: 21.8%Relegation: 5.5%
11:00Stoke City#8Winner: 5.3%Promotion: 10.8%Playoff: 21.8%Relegation: 5.5%8%
76%
Watford#20Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 2.9%Playoff: 9.8%Relegation: 19.1%11:00Burnley#24Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 0.9%Playoff: 4.1%Relegation: 37.3%
11:00Burnley#24Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 0.9%Playoff: 4.1%Relegation: 37.3%51%
23%
Charlton#10Winner: 3.8%Promotion: 7.9%Playoff: 18.3%Relegation: 7.9%08:30Bristol City#9Winner: 5.1%Promotion: 10.3%Playoff: 21.4%Relegation: 5.7%
08:30Bristol City#9Winner: 5.1%Promotion: 10.3%Playoff: 21.4%Relegation: 5.7%36%
34%
Swansea City#1Winner: 13.8%Promotion: 24.5%Playoff: 29.2%Relegation: 1.6%08:30Norwich City#17Winner: 1.7%Promotion: 4.1%Playoff: 12.3%Relegation: 14.2%
08:30Norwich City#17Winner: 1.7%Promotion: 4.1%Playoff: 12.3%Relegation: 14.2%44%
29%
After Round 8: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓West Ham's Promo probability dropped from 44.7% to 17.7% (-27%).
- ↓Southampton's Promo probability dropped from 36.6% to 14.5% (-22.1%).
- ↓Preston's Releg probability dropped from 58.2% to 36.3% (-21.9%).
- ↓Sheffield Utd's Releg probability dropped from 29.1% to 14.7% (-14.4%).
- ↓Millwall's Playoff probability dropped from 30.4% to 16.9% (-13.5%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Championship 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Playoff:
Championship 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Championship 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Swansea City currently have the highest title probability at 14%. With 38 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Championship 26/27?
- Burnley currently faces the highest relegation risk at 37%, followed by Preston at 36%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Championship 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Championship 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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