Copa Libertadores 2026
KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK
Probability snapshot across 10 rounds of group and knockout play.
Expected champion
Estudiantes
Win: 50.1%
Knockout bracket outlook
Predicted bracket based on up to 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
R16
QF
SF
Final
SF
QF
R16
ARG
4 – 1
L1 1–1L2 3–0
ARG
BRA0 – 1
L1 0–0L2 0–1
COL
ECU1 – 4
L1 0–1L2 1–3
BRA
BRA2 – 3
L1 1–1L2 1–2
ARGBRA2 – 1
L1 1–1L2 1–0
ECUBRA1 – 3
L1 0–2L2 1–1
confirmed
ARGBRA75%25%
ARG
BRA70%30%
BRA
ARG1 – 1 (5-4 pen)
L1 0–0L2 1–1
ARG
1 – 1 (7-6 pen)
L1 1–1L2 0–0
BRA
PAR2 – 1
L1 1–1L2 1–0
BRA
ECU1 – 1 (4-5 pen)
L1 1–1L2 0–0
BRAARG3 – 2
L1 2–0L2 1–2
BRAECU3 – 3 (4-3 pen)
L1 1–0L2 2–3
confirmed
BRABRA36%64%
Final
Estudiantes
Palmeiras
70%30%
SF
confirmed
Estudiantes
Flamengo
75%25%
confirmed
Fluminense
Palmeiras
36%64%
QF
Estudiantes
2
Corinthians
1
L1: 1–1L2: 1–0
Ind. del Valle
1
Flamengo
3
L1: 0–2L2: 1–1
Fluminense
3
Platense
2
L1: 2–0L2: 1–2
Palmeiras
3
LDU
3
L1: 1–0L2: 2–3
R16
Estudiantes
4
U. Católica
1
L1: 1–1L2: 3–0
Rosario Central
0
Corinthians
1
L1: 0–0L2: 0–1
Tolima
1
Ind. del Valle
4
L1: 0–1L2: 1–3
Cruzeiro
2
Flamengo
3
L1: 1–1L2: 1–2
Fluminense
1
Rivadavia
1
L1: 0–0L2: 1–1
Platense
1
Coquimbo Unido
1
L1: 1–1L2: 0–0
Palmeiras
2
Cerro Porteño
1
L1: 1–1L2: 1–0
Mirassol
1
LDU
1
L1: 1–1L2: 0–0
Slot assignments reflect expected group outcomes. Best-third slots show the 8 most likely third-place qualifiers.
Knockout probability table
| # | Team | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes | 71.0% | 50.1% |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 52.4% | 21.0% |
| 3 |  Flamengo | 29.0% | 17.1% |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 47.6% | 11.8% |
Group standings
Current rankings inside each group, plus each team's knockout probability.
Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 0.0% |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 6 | 0.0% |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 12 | 4 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
Group B
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Corinthians | 16 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2 |  Mirassol | 14 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 3 |  CA Lanús | 9 | -4 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  Boca Juniors | 7 | 1 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
Group C
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rivadavia | 18 | 9 | 0.0% |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 17 | 5 | 0.0% |
| 3 |  Platense | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  Rosario Central | 14 | 7 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
Group D
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cerro Porteño | 14 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2 |  Nacional | 8 | -2 | 0.0% |
| 3 |  Peñarol | 3 | -4 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  Libertad | 0 | -9 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
Group E
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ind. del Valle | 20 | 6 | 0.0% |
| 2 |  LDU | 17 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 3 |  Universitario | 6 | -1 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  Barcelona SC | 3 | -10 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
Group F
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting Cristal | 6 | -3 | 0.0% |
| 2 |  Bolívar | 5 | -2 | 0.0% |
| 3 |  Always Ready | 3 | -2 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  Cusco FC | 1 | -8 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
Group G
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U. Central | 9 | -4 | 0.0% |
| 2 |  Tolima | 8 | -2 | 0.0% |
| 3 |  Ind. Medellín | 7 | -2 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  La Guaira | 3 | -7 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
Group H
| # | Team | P | GD | KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U. Católica | 14 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2 |  Coquimbo Unido | 12 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 3 |  Santa Fe | 8 | -1 | 0.0% |
| 4 |  Junior | 4 | -6 | 0.0% |
KO: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page