Brasileirão 2026 Title Race
Brasileirão 2026
Every Brasileirão team ranked by their live title probability — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Title Race — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 46.3% |
| 2 | Flamengo | 18.7% |
| 3 | Fluminense | 12.6% |
| 4 | São Paulo | 5.8% |
| 5 | Bahia | 4.7% |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 4.5% |
| 7 | Coritiba | 1.6% |
| 8 | Botafogo | 1.4% |
| 9 | Bragantino | 0.8% |
| 10 | Vitória | 0.7% |
| 11 | Vasco | 0.5% |
| 12 | Cruzeiro | 0.5% |
| 13 | Grêmio | 0.5% |
| 14 | Corinthians | 0.3% |
| 15 | Atlético-MG | 0.3% |
| 16 | Internacional | 0.2% |
| 17 | Santos | 0.2% |
| 18 | Mirassol | 0.1% |
| 19 | Remo | 0.0% |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 13
About This Race
With so many fixtures remaining, the Brasileirão title race is wide open. This model updates in real time and shows exactly which clubs are mathematically in contention.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the title places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full Brasileirão 2026 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.