Bundesliga Relegation Battle 2026
Bundesliga 2025/26
Every Bundesliga team ranked by their live probability of relegation — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every matchday.
Relegation Battle — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Heidenheim | 97.5% |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg | 57.9% |
| 3 | St. Pauli | 44.5% |
| 4 | FC Köln | 0.1% |
| 5 | Hamburger SV | 0.1% |
| 6 | Bayern München | 0.0% |
| 7 | Borussia Dortmund | 0.0% |
| 8 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0.0% |
| 9 | Hoffenheim | 0.0% |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 0.0% |
| 11 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.0% |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.0% |
| 13 | SC Freiburg | 0.0% |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 0.0% |
| 15 | FSV Mainz | 0.0% |
| 16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.0% |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 0.0% |
| 18 | SV Werder Bremen | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 31
About This Race
The Bundesliga relegation battle is simulated in real time — the team in 16th faces a two-legged playoff, while 17th and 18th go straight down.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the relegation places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full Bundesliga 2025/26 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.