Real Madrid
Real Madrid Champions League Chances 2026 — 99.9%
La Liga 25/26 · Round 34 of 38 · Rank #2 · 33 MP
Real Madrid La Liga 25/26 — Key Insights
0.2%
Winner
0.0%
Relegation
#2
Position
WLDWD
Last 5 matches
Explore detailed analysis below ↓
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Real Madrid are 2nd in the La Liga 25/26 2026 season after 33 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 99.9% chance of champions league — with 4 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.
In their last 5 La Liga 25/26 matches, Real Madrid have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.
Alongside their champions league probability, Real Madrid's winner chance currently stands at 0.2%.
Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining La Liga 25/26 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Real Madrid's 2026 season has evolved round by round.
Current Probabilities:
- Winner: 0.2%
- Champions League: 99.9%
- Europa League: 0.0%Since 2026-03-06
- Conference League: 0.0%Since 2026-01-24
- Relegation: 0.0%Since 2025-09-20
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.9%
7:00 PMReal Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9%
7:00 PMReal Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9%43%
30%
Barcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9%
7:00 PMReal Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9%
7:00 PMReal Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9%76%
9%
73%
10%
19%
60%
Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9%5:00 PM
Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.7%Relegation: 0.5%
5:00 PMAthletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.7%Relegation: 0.5%73%
10%
Results so far
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.3%Conference League: 9.4% | 1 - 1 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-04-21 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 1 |  Alavés#17Conference League: 0.1%Relegation: 22.4% |
| 2026-04-10 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 1 - 1 |  Girona#16Relegation: 20.3% |
| 2026-04-04 | Mallorca#14Relegation: 13.2% | 2 - 1 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-03-22 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 2 |  Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3% |
| 2026-03-14 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 4 - 1 |  Elche#15Conference League: 0.7%Relegation: 6.4% |
| 2026-03-06 | Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.7% | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-03-02 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 0 - 1 |  Getafe#6Europa League: 3.7%Conference League: 24.0% |
| 2026-02-21 | Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.3% | 2 - 1 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-02-14 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 4 - 1 |  Real Sociedad#8Europa League: 3.1%Conference League: 16.6% |
| 2026-02-08 | Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.2% | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-02-01 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 1 |  Rayo Vallecano#12Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.0% |
| 2026-01-24 | Villarreal#3Champions League: 99.9% | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-01-17 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 0 |  Levante#19Relegation: 69.4% |
| 2026-01-04 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 5 - 1 | Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.3%Conference League: 9.4% |
| 2025-12-20 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 0 |  Sevilla#18Relegation: 58.1% |
| 2025-12-14 | Alavés#17Conference League: 0.1%Relegation: 22.4% | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-12-07 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 0 - 2 | Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.7% |
| 2025-12-03 | Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.7%Relegation: 0.5% | 0 - 3 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-30 | Girona#16Relegation: 20.3% | 1 - 1 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-23 | Elche#15Conference League: 0.7%Relegation: 6.4% | 2 - 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-09 | Rayo Vallecano#12Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.0% | 0 - 0 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 4 - 0 | Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.2% |
| 2025-10-26 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 1 | Barcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-10-19 | Getafe#6Europa League: 3.7%Conference League: 24.0% | 0 - 1 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-10-04 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 1 | Villarreal#3Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-09-27 | Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3% | 5 - 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-09-23 | Levante#19Relegation: 69.4% | 1 - 4 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-09-20 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 0 | Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.9% |
| 2025-09-13 | Real Sociedad#8Europa League: 3.1%Conference League: 16.6% | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-08-30 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 1 | Mallorca#14Relegation: 13.2% |
| 2025-08-24 | Real Oviedo#20Relegation: 99.6% | 0 - 3 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-08-19 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 1 - 0 | Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.3% |