Copa do Brasil 2026 — Round 3 of 0
Updated at
Expected champion
Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.
Palmeiras35.4%→Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Winner: 35.4%Final: 54.0%Semifinals: 54.0%Quarterfinals: 73.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 35.4% |
| 2 |  Grêmio#2Winner: 17.9%Final: 34.4%Semifinals: 34.4%Quarterfinals: 59.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 17.9% |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro#3Winner: 10.5%Final: 23.2%Semifinals: 23.2%Quarterfinals: 49.5%Round of 16: 100.0% | 10.5% |
| 4 |  Santos#4Winner: 9.7%Final: 21.9%Semifinals: 21.9%Quarterfinals: 48.2%Round of 16: 100.0% | 9.7% |
| 5 |  Internacional#5Winner: 7.8%Final: 19.1%Semifinals: 19.1%Quarterfinals: 45.3%Round of 16: 100.0% | 7.8% |
| 6 |  Vasco#6Winner: 6.8%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 42.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 6.8% |
| 7 |  Vitória#7Winner: 6.4%Final: 15.8%Semifinals: 15.8%Quarterfinals: 40.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 6.4% |
| 8 |  Atlético-MG#8Winner: 5.6%Final: 14.7%Semifinals: 14.7%Quarterfinals: 39.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 5.6% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Winner: 35.4%Final: 54.0%Semifinals: 54.0%Quarterfinals: 73.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 54.0% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Winner: 17.9%Final: 34.4%Semifinals: 34.4%Quarterfinals: 59.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 34.4% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Winner: 10.5%Final: 23.2%Semifinals: 23.2%Quarterfinals: 49.5%Round of 16: 100.0% | 23.2% |
| 4 | Santos#4Winner: 9.7%Final: 21.9%Semifinals: 21.9%Quarterfinals: 48.2%Round of 16: 100.0% | 21.9% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Winner: 7.8%Final: 19.1%Semifinals: 19.1%Quarterfinals: 45.3%Round of 16: 100.0% | 19.1% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Winner: 6.8%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 42.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 16.9% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Winner: 6.4%Final: 15.8%Semifinals: 15.8%Quarterfinals: 40.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 15.8% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Winner: 5.6%Final: 14.7%Semifinals: 14.7%Quarterfinals: 39.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 14.7% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Winner: 35.4%Final: 54.0%Semifinals: 54.0%Quarterfinals: 73.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 54.0% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Winner: 17.9%Final: 34.4%Semifinals: 34.4%Quarterfinals: 59.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 34.4% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Winner: 10.5%Final: 23.2%Semifinals: 23.2%Quarterfinals: 49.5%Round of 16: 100.0% | 23.2% |
| 4 | Santos#4Winner: 9.7%Final: 21.9%Semifinals: 21.9%Quarterfinals: 48.2%Round of 16: 100.0% | 21.9% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Winner: 7.8%Final: 19.1%Semifinals: 19.1%Quarterfinals: 45.3%Round of 16: 100.0% | 19.1% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Winner: 6.8%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 42.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 16.9% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Winner: 6.4%Final: 15.8%Semifinals: 15.8%Quarterfinals: 40.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 15.8% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Winner: 5.6%Final: 14.7%Semifinals: 14.7%Quarterfinals: 39.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 14.7% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Winner: 35.4%Final: 54.0%Semifinals: 54.0%Quarterfinals: 73.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 73.9% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Winner: 17.9%Final: 34.4%Semifinals: 34.4%Quarterfinals: 59.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 59.9% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Winner: 10.5%Final: 23.2%Semifinals: 23.2%Quarterfinals: 49.5%Round of 16: 100.0% | 49.5% |
| 4 | Santos#4Winner: 9.7%Final: 21.9%Semifinals: 21.9%Quarterfinals: 48.2%Round of 16: 100.0% | 48.2% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Winner: 7.8%Final: 19.1%Semifinals: 19.1%Quarterfinals: 45.3%Round of 16: 100.0% | 45.3% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Winner: 6.8%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 42.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 42.6% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Winner: 6.4%Final: 15.8%Semifinals: 15.8%Quarterfinals: 40.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 40.9% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Winner: 5.6%Final: 14.7%Semifinals: 14.7%Quarterfinals: 39.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 39.6% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Winner: 35.4%Final: 54.0%Semifinals: 54.0%Quarterfinals: 73.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Winner: 17.9%Final: 34.4%Semifinals: 34.4%Quarterfinals: 59.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Winner: 10.5%Final: 23.2%Semifinals: 23.2%Quarterfinals: 49.5%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 | Santos#4Winner: 9.7%Final: 21.9%Semifinals: 21.9%Quarterfinals: 48.2%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Winner: 7.8%Final: 19.1%Semifinals: 19.1%Quarterfinals: 45.3%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Winner: 6.8%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 42.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Winner: 6.4%Final: 15.8%Semifinals: 15.8%Quarterfinals: 40.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Winner: 5.6%Final: 14.7%Semifinals: 14.7%Quarterfinals: 39.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Round 3 of 0 — Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Final | Semifinals | Quarterfinals | RoundOf16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Palmeiras#1Winner: 35.4%Final: 54.0%Semifinals: 54.0%Quarterfinals: 73.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 35% | 54% | 54% | 74% | 100% |
2 | Grêmio#2Winner: 17.9%Final: 34.4%Semifinals: 34.4%Quarterfinals: 59.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 18% | 34% | 34% | 60% | 100% |
3 | Cruzeiro#3Winner: 10.5%Final: 23.2%Semifinals: 23.2%Quarterfinals: 49.5%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 10% | 23% | 23% | 50% | 100% |
4 | Santos#4Winner: 9.7%Final: 21.9%Semifinals: 21.9%Quarterfinals: 48.2%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 10% | 22% | 22% | 48% | 100% |
5 | Internacional#5Winner: 7.8%Final: 19.1%Semifinals: 19.1%Quarterfinals: 45.3%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 8% | 19% | 19% | 45% | 100% |
6 | Vasco#6Winner: 6.8%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 42.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 7% | 17% | 17% | 43% | 100% |
7 | Vitória#7Winner: 6.4%Final: 15.8%Semifinals: 15.8%Quarterfinals: 40.9%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 6% | 16% | 16% | 41% | 100% |
8 | Atlético-MG#8Winner: 5.6%Final: 14.7%Semifinals: 14.7%Quarterfinals: 39.6%Round of 16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 6% | 15% | 15% | 40% | 100% |
9 |  Mirassol#9 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
10 |  Chapecoense#10 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
11 |  Athletico-PR#11 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
12 |  Fortaleza#12 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
13 |  Remo#13 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
14 |  Juventude#14 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
15 |  Corinthians#15 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
16 |  Fluminense#16 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Winner
After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Vitória have mathematically secured Round of 16.
- ↓Athletico-PR have been mathematically eliminated from Round of 16.
- ↑Internacional have mathematically secured Round of 16.
- ↓Corinthians have been mathematically eliminated from Round of 16.
- ↑Palmeiras's Final probability climbed from 52.3% to 54% (+1.7%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Copa do Brasil 2026 — Season Outlook
Winner:
Final:
Semifinals:
Quarterfinals:
Copa do Brasil 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Copa do Brasil 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 35%. With -3 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- How does CupChances calculate Copa do Brasil 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Copa do Brasil 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.