Who will win the Copa do Brasil 2026?

Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 18%. With -3 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.

How does CupChances calculate Copa do Brasil 2026 probabilities?

Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.

How often are the Copa do Brasil 2026 predictions updated?

Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

Copa do Brasil 2026 — Round 3 of 0

Updated at 6/20/26, 11:39 PM

Expected champion

Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.

Palmeiras17.6%→

Probability of winning the championship

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 17.6%Final: 28.8%Semifinals: 28.8%Quarterfinals: 43.6%Round of 16: 65.3%	17.6%
2	Juventude#2Winner: 8.7%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 31.1%Round of 16: 56.5%	8.7%
3	Grêmio#3Winner: 8.4%Final: 16.6%Semifinals: 16.6%Quarterfinals: 31.4%Round of 16: 58.9%	8.4%
4	Cruzeiro#4Winner: 7.8%Final: 15.7%Semifinals: 15.7%Quarterfinals: 32.1%Round of 16: 64.6%	7.8%
5	Internacional#5Winner: 6.1%Final: 12.7%Semifinals: 12.7%Quarterfinals: 25.7%Round of 16: 51.2%	6.1%
6	Santos#6Winner: 5.8%Final: 12.1%Semifinals: 12.1%Quarterfinals: 24.9%Round of 16: 50.4%	5.8%
7	Fluminense#7Winner: 5.7%Final: 12.3%Semifinals: 12.3%Quarterfinals: 26.1%Round of 16: 53.9%	5.7%
8	Remo#8Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.6%Round of 16: 49.6%	5.7%
9	Corinthians#9Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.1%Round of 16: 48.8%	5.7%
10	Vitória#10Winner: 5.3%Final: 11.1%Semifinals: 11.1%Quarterfinals: 24.4%Round of 16: 51.7%	5.3%
11	Fortaleza#11Winner: 4.9%Final: 9.5%Semifinals: 9.5%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 34.7%	4.9%
12	Atlético-MG#12Winner: 4.6%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 9.8%Quarterfinals: 20.9%Round of 16: 43.5%	4.6%
13	Athletico-PR#13Winner: 4.6%Final: 10.1%Semifinals: 10.1%Quarterfinals: 22.1%Round of 16: 48.3%	4.6%
14	Vasco#14Winner: 3.7%Final: 8.4%Semifinals: 8.4%Quarterfinals: 20.0%Round of 16: 46.1%	3.7%
15	Mirassol#15Winner: 3.6%Final: 8.0%Semifinals: 8.0%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 41.1%	3.6%
16	Chapecoense#16Winner: 1.7%Final: 4.4%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 12.5%Round of 16: 35.4%	1.7%

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 17.6%Final: 28.8%Semifinals: 28.8%Quarterfinals: 43.6%Round of 16: 65.3%	28.8%
2	Juventude#2Winner: 8.7%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 31.1%Round of 16: 56.5%	16.9%
3	Grêmio#3Winner: 8.4%Final: 16.6%Semifinals: 16.6%Quarterfinals: 31.4%Round of 16: 58.9%	16.6%
4	Cruzeiro#4Winner: 7.8%Final: 15.7%Semifinals: 15.7%Quarterfinals: 32.1%Round of 16: 64.6%	15.7%
5	Internacional#5Winner: 6.1%Final: 12.7%Semifinals: 12.7%Quarterfinals: 25.7%Round of 16: 51.2%	12.7%
6	Fluminense#7Winner: 5.7%Final: 12.3%Semifinals: 12.3%Quarterfinals: 26.1%Round of 16: 53.9%	12.3%
7	Santos#6Winner: 5.8%Final: 12.1%Semifinals: 12.1%Quarterfinals: 24.9%Round of 16: 50.4%	12.1%
8	Remo#8Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.6%Round of 16: 49.6%	11.8%
9	Corinthians#9Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.1%Round of 16: 48.8%	11.8%
10	Vitória#10Winner: 5.3%Final: 11.1%Semifinals: 11.1%Quarterfinals: 24.4%Round of 16: 51.7%	11.1%
11	Athletico-PR#13Winner: 4.6%Final: 10.1%Semifinals: 10.1%Quarterfinals: 22.1%Round of 16: 48.3%	10.1%
12	Atlético-MG#12Winner: 4.6%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 9.8%Quarterfinals: 20.9%Round of 16: 43.5%	9.8%
13	Fortaleza#11Winner: 4.9%Final: 9.5%Semifinals: 9.5%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 34.7%	9.5%
14	Vasco#14Winner: 3.7%Final: 8.4%Semifinals: 8.4%Quarterfinals: 20.0%Round of 16: 46.1%	8.4%
15	Mirassol#15Winner: 3.6%Final: 8.0%Semifinals: 8.0%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 41.1%	8.0%
16	Chapecoense#16Winner: 1.7%Final: 4.4%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 12.5%Round of 16: 35.4%	4.4%

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 17.6%Final: 28.8%Semifinals: 28.8%Quarterfinals: 43.6%Round of 16: 65.3%	28.8%
2	Juventude#2Winner: 8.7%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 31.1%Round of 16: 56.5%	16.9%
3	Grêmio#3Winner: 8.4%Final: 16.6%Semifinals: 16.6%Quarterfinals: 31.4%Round of 16: 58.9%	16.6%
4	Cruzeiro#4Winner: 7.8%Final: 15.7%Semifinals: 15.7%Quarterfinals: 32.1%Round of 16: 64.6%	15.7%
5	Internacional#5Winner: 6.1%Final: 12.7%Semifinals: 12.7%Quarterfinals: 25.7%Round of 16: 51.2%	12.7%
6	Fluminense#7Winner: 5.7%Final: 12.3%Semifinals: 12.3%Quarterfinals: 26.1%Round of 16: 53.9%	12.3%
7	Santos#6Winner: 5.8%Final: 12.1%Semifinals: 12.1%Quarterfinals: 24.9%Round of 16: 50.4%	12.1%
8	Remo#8Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.6%Round of 16: 49.6%	11.8%
9	Corinthians#9Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.1%Round of 16: 48.8%	11.8%
10	Vitória#10Winner: 5.3%Final: 11.1%Semifinals: 11.1%Quarterfinals: 24.4%Round of 16: 51.7%	11.1%
11	Athletico-PR#13Winner: 4.6%Final: 10.1%Semifinals: 10.1%Quarterfinals: 22.1%Round of 16: 48.3%	10.1%
12	Atlético-MG#12Winner: 4.6%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 9.8%Quarterfinals: 20.9%Round of 16: 43.5%	9.8%
13	Fortaleza#11Winner: 4.9%Final: 9.5%Semifinals: 9.5%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 34.7%	9.5%
14	Vasco#14Winner: 3.7%Final: 8.4%Semifinals: 8.4%Quarterfinals: 20.0%Round of 16: 46.1%	8.4%
15	Mirassol#15Winner: 3.6%Final: 8.0%Semifinals: 8.0%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 41.1%	8.0%
16	Chapecoense#16Winner: 1.7%Final: 4.4%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 12.5%Round of 16: 35.4%	4.4%

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 17.6%Final: 28.8%Semifinals: 28.8%Quarterfinals: 43.6%Round of 16: 65.3%	43.6%
2	Cruzeiro#4Winner: 7.8%Final: 15.7%Semifinals: 15.7%Quarterfinals: 32.1%Round of 16: 64.6%	32.1%
3	Grêmio#3Winner: 8.4%Final: 16.6%Semifinals: 16.6%Quarterfinals: 31.4%Round of 16: 58.9%	31.4%
4	Juventude#2Winner: 8.7%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 31.1%Round of 16: 56.5%	31.1%
5	Fluminense#7Winner: 5.7%Final: 12.3%Semifinals: 12.3%Quarterfinals: 26.1%Round of 16: 53.9%	26.1%
6	Internacional#5Winner: 6.1%Final: 12.7%Semifinals: 12.7%Quarterfinals: 25.7%Round of 16: 51.2%	25.7%
7	Santos#6Winner: 5.8%Final: 12.1%Semifinals: 12.1%Quarterfinals: 24.9%Round of 16: 50.4%	24.9%
8	Remo#8Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.6%Round of 16: 49.6%	24.6%
9	Vitória#10Winner: 5.3%Final: 11.1%Semifinals: 11.1%Quarterfinals: 24.4%Round of 16: 51.7%	24.4%
10	Corinthians#9Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.1%Round of 16: 48.8%	24.1%
11	Athletico-PR#13Winner: 4.6%Final: 10.1%Semifinals: 10.1%Quarterfinals: 22.1%Round of 16: 48.3%	22.1%
12	Atlético-MG#12Winner: 4.6%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 9.8%Quarterfinals: 20.9%Round of 16: 43.5%	20.9%
13	Vasco#14Winner: 3.7%Final: 8.4%Semifinals: 8.4%Quarterfinals: 20.0%Round of 16: 46.1%	20.0%
14	Fortaleza#11Winner: 4.9%Final: 9.5%Semifinals: 9.5%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 34.7%	18.3%
15	Mirassol#15Winner: 3.6%Final: 8.0%Semifinals: 8.0%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 41.1%	18.3%
16	Chapecoense#16Winner: 1.7%Final: 4.4%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 12.5%Round of 16: 35.4%	12.5%

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 17.6%Final: 28.8%Semifinals: 28.8%Quarterfinals: 43.6%Round of 16: 65.3%	65.3%
2	Cruzeiro#4Winner: 7.8%Final: 15.7%Semifinals: 15.7%Quarterfinals: 32.1%Round of 16: 64.6%	64.6%
3	Grêmio#3Winner: 8.4%Final: 16.6%Semifinals: 16.6%Quarterfinals: 31.4%Round of 16: 58.9%	58.9%
4	Juventude#2Winner: 8.7%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 31.1%Round of 16: 56.5%	56.5%
5	Fluminense#7Winner: 5.7%Final: 12.3%Semifinals: 12.3%Quarterfinals: 26.1%Round of 16: 53.9%	53.9%
6	Vitória#10Winner: 5.3%Final: 11.1%Semifinals: 11.1%Quarterfinals: 24.4%Round of 16: 51.7%	51.7%
7	Internacional#5Winner: 6.1%Final: 12.7%Semifinals: 12.7%Quarterfinals: 25.7%Round of 16: 51.2%	51.2%
8	Santos#6Winner: 5.8%Final: 12.1%Semifinals: 12.1%Quarterfinals: 24.9%Round of 16: 50.4%	50.4%
9	Remo#8Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.6%Round of 16: 49.6%	49.6%
10	Corinthians#9Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.1%Round of 16: 48.8%	48.8%
11	Athletico-PR#13Winner: 4.6%Final: 10.1%Semifinals: 10.1%Quarterfinals: 22.1%Round of 16: 48.3%	48.3%
12	Vasco#14Winner: 3.7%Final: 8.4%Semifinals: 8.4%Quarterfinals: 20.0%Round of 16: 46.1%	46.1%
13	Atlético-MG#12Winner: 4.6%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 9.8%Quarterfinals: 20.9%Round of 16: 43.5%	43.5%
14	Mirassol#15Winner: 3.6%Final: 8.0%Semifinals: 8.0%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 41.1%	41.1%
15	Chapecoense#16Winner: 1.7%Final: 4.4%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 12.5%Round of 16: 35.4%	35.4%
16	Fortaleza#11Winner: 4.9%Final: 9.5%Semifinals: 9.5%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 34.7%	34.7%

Round 3 of 0 — Standings

#	Team	Title	Final	Semifinals	Quarterfinals	RoundOf16
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 17.6%Final: 28.8%Semifinals: 28.8%Quarterfinals: 43.6%Round of 16: 65.3%	18%	29%	29%	44%	65%
2	Juventude#2Winner: 8.7%Final: 16.9%Semifinals: 16.9%Quarterfinals: 31.1%Round of 16: 56.5%	9%	17%	17%	31%	56%
3	Grêmio#3Winner: 8.4%Final: 16.6%Semifinals: 16.6%Quarterfinals: 31.4%Round of 16: 58.9%	8%	17%	17%	31%	59%
4	Cruzeiro#4Winner: 7.8%Final: 15.7%Semifinals: 15.7%Quarterfinals: 32.1%Round of 16: 64.6%	8%	16%	16%	32%	65%
5	Internacional#5Winner: 6.1%Final: 12.7%Semifinals: 12.7%Quarterfinals: 25.7%Round of 16: 51.2%	6%	13%	13%	26%	51%
6	Santos#6Winner: 5.8%Final: 12.1%Semifinals: 12.1%Quarterfinals: 24.9%Round of 16: 50.4%	6%	12%	12%	25%	50%
7	Fluminense#7Winner: 5.7%Final: 12.3%Semifinals: 12.3%Quarterfinals: 26.1%Round of 16: 53.9%	6%	12%	12%	26%	54%
8	Remo#8Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.6%Round of 16: 49.6%	6%	12%	12%	25%	50%
9	Corinthians#9Winner: 5.7%Final: 11.8%Semifinals: 11.8%Quarterfinals: 24.1%Round of 16: 48.8%	6%	12%	12%	24%	49%
10	Vitória#10Winner: 5.3%Final: 11.1%Semifinals: 11.1%Quarterfinals: 24.4%Round of 16: 51.7%	5%	11%	11%	24%	52%
11	Fortaleza#11Winner: 4.9%Final: 9.5%Semifinals: 9.5%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 34.7%	5%	10%	10%	18%	35%
12	Atlético-MG#12Winner: 4.6%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 9.8%Quarterfinals: 20.9%Round of 16: 43.5%	5%	10%	10%	21%	44%
13	Athletico-PR#13Winner: 4.6%Final: 10.1%Semifinals: 10.1%Quarterfinals: 22.1%Round of 16: 48.3%	5%	10%	10%	22%	48%
14	Vasco#14Winner: 3.7%Final: 8.4%Semifinals: 8.4%Quarterfinals: 20.0%Round of 16: 46.1%	4%	8%	8%	20%	46%
15	Mirassol#15Winner: 3.6%Final: 8.0%Semifinals: 8.0%Quarterfinals: 18.3%Round of 16: 41.1%	4%	8%	8%	18%	41%
16	Chapecoense#16Winner: 1.7%Final: 4.4%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 12.5%Round of 16: 35.4%	2%	4%	4%	12%	35%

Winner

Copa do Brasil 2026 — Season Outlook

Winner:

Palmeiras Winner Chances (17.6%)Juventude Winner Chances (8.7%)Grêmio Winner Chances (8.4%)Cruzeiro Winner Chances (7.8%)Internacional Winner Chances (6.1%)Santos Winner Chances (5.8%)

Final:

Palmeiras Final Chances (28.8%)Juventude Final Chances (16.9%)Grêmio Final Chances (16.6%)Cruzeiro Final Chances (15.7%)Internacional Final Chances (12.7%)Fluminense Final Chances (12.3%)

Semifinals:

Palmeiras Semifinals Chances (28.8%)Juventude Semifinals Chances (16.9%)Grêmio Semifinals Chances (16.6%)Cruzeiro Semifinals Chances (15.7%)Internacional Semifinals Chances (12.7%)Fluminense Semifinals Chances (12.3%)

Quarterfinals:

Palmeiras Quarterfinals Chances (43.6%)Cruzeiro Quarterfinals Chances (32.1%)Grêmio Quarterfinals Chances (31.4%)Juventude Quarterfinals Chances (31.1%)Fluminense Quarterfinals Chances (26.1%)Internacional Quarterfinals Chances (25.7%)

Round of 16:

Palmeiras Round of 16 Chances (65.3%)Cruzeiro Round of 16 Chances (64.6%)Grêmio Round of 16 Chances (58.9%)Juventude Round of 16 Chances (56.5%)Fluminense Round of 16 Chances (53.9%)Vitória Round of 16 Chances (51.7%)

Copa do Brasil 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the Copa do Brasil 2026?: Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 18%. With -3 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
How does CupChances calculate Copa do Brasil 2026 probabilities?: Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the Copa do Brasil 2026 predictions updated?: Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.