La Liga Top 4 Race 2026
La Liga 2025/26
Every La Liga team ranked by their live probability of finishing in the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League — updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Top 4 Race — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 100.0% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 100.0% |
| 3 | Villarreal | 100.0% |
| 4 | Atlético de Madrid | 99.9% |
| 5 | Betis | 0.1% |
| 6 | Celta | 0.0% |
| 7 | Getafe | 0.0% |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 0.0% |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 0.0% |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0.0% |
| 11 | Osasuna | 0.0% |
| 12 | Valencia | 0.0% |
| 13 | Girona | 0.0% |
| 14 | Mallorca | 0.0% |
| 15 | Espanyol | 0.0% |
| 16 | Elche | 0.0% |
| 17 | Sevilla | 0.0% |
| 18 | Levante | 0.0% |
| 19 | Alavés | 0.0% |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 35
About This Race
The top four teams in La Liga earn direct entry to the UEFA Champions League. This model shows who is currently in the strongest position.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the Champions League qualification places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full La Liga 2025/26 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.