Japan
Japan World Cup 2026 — 100.0% Knockout
FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 104 of 94 · Rank #22 · 3 MP
How far can Japan go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Japan's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.
Last updated: July 19, 2026
Live — Updated at
Japan are 22nd in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 3 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 100.0% chance of knockout — with -10 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.
In their last 4 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, Japan have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.
Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Japan's 2026 season has evolved round by round.
Current Probabilities:
- Winner: 0.0%Since 2026-07-03
- Final: 0.0%Since 2026-07-03
- Semifinals: 0.0%Since 2026-07-03
- Quarterfinals: 0.0%Since 2026-07-03
- Round of 16: 0.0%Since 2026-07-03
- Knockout: 100.0%Since 2026-06-21
- Group Stage Exit: 0.0%Since 2026-06-21
← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds
See also:
Results so far
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Brazil#12Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0% | 2 - 1 | |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan#22Knockout: 100.0% | 1 - 1 | |
| 2026-06-21 | Tunisia#23Group Stage Exit: 100.0% | 0 - 4 | |
| 2026-06-14 | Netherlands#25Knockout: 100.0% | 2 - 2 |