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Japan Knockout Chances 2026 — 62.5%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 8 of 94 · Rank #21 · 0 MP

How far can Japan go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Japan's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: June 14, 2026

Japan FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
1.0%
Winner
37.5%
Group Stage Exit
#21
Position
Japan are strong contenders for Knockout at 62.5%, currently ranked 21st — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 1.0%
  • Final: 2.7%
  • Semifinals: 5.4%
  • Quarterfinals: 13.4%
  • Round of 16: 25.7%
  • Knockout: 62.5%
  • Group Stage Exit: 37.5%

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Senegal Round of 16 ChancesMorocco Knockout ChancesEcuador Knockout ChancesSweden Knockout ChancesCzech Republic Knockout ChancesAustralia Knockout ChancesScotland Knockout ChancesTunisia Knockout ChancesNorway Knockout ChancesCanada Knockout Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Netherlands#8Winner: 5.1%Final: 9.7%Semifinals: 16.3%Quarterfinals: 32.7%Round of 16: 55.8%Knockout: 88.1%Group Stage Exit: 11.9%8:00 PMJapan#21Winner: 1.0%Final: 2.7%Semifinals: 5.4%Quarterfinals: 13.4%Round of 16: 25.7%Knockout: 62.5%Group Stage Exit: 37.5%
Tunisia#24Winner: 0.7%Final: 1.9%Semifinals: 4.1%Quarterfinals: 11.0%Round of 16: 23.1%Knockout: 62.2%Group Stage Exit: 37.8%4:00 AMJapan#21Winner: 1.0%Final: 2.7%Semifinals: 5.4%Quarterfinals: 13.4%Round of 16: 25.7%Knockout: 62.5%Group Stage Exit: 37.5%
Japan#21Winner: 1.0%Final: 2.7%Semifinals: 5.4%Quarterfinals: 13.4%Round of 16: 25.7%Knockout: 62.5%Group Stage Exit: 37.5%11:00 PMSweden#19Winner: 1.1%Final: 3.0%Semifinals: 6.1%Quarterfinals: 14.3%Round of 16: 27.2%Knockout: 64.3%Group Stage Exit: 35.7%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway