La Liga 26/27 — Round 7 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44.1% | |
| 2 | 14.7% | |
| 3 | 12.6% | |
| 4 | 7.6% | |
| 5 | 3.0% | |
| 6 | 3.0% | |
| 7 | 2.5% | |
| 8 | 1.8% | |
| 9 | 1.7% | |
| 10 | 1.6% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 82.1% | |
| 2 | 55.0% | |
| 3 | 50.3% | |
| 4 | 38.0% | |
| 5 | 21.2% | |
| 6 | 20.3% | |
| 7 | 19.0% | |
| 8 | 14.4% | |
| 9 | 14.0% | |
| 10 | 13.4% | |
| 11 | 12.8% | |
| 12 | 11.8% | |
| 13 | 11.3% | |
| 14 | 9.5% | |
| 15 | 7.8% | |
| 16 | 4.9% | |
| 17 | 4.6% | |
| 18 | 4.5% | |
| 19 | 2.7% | |
| 20 | 2.5% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.7% | |
| 2 | 8.7% | |
| 3 | 8.6% | |
| 4 | 6.9% | |
| 5 | 6.7% | |
| 6 | 6.6% | |
| 7 | 5.6% | |
| 8 | 5.3% | |
| 9 | 5.1% | |
| 10 | 5.1% | |
| 11 | 5.1% | |
| 12 | 4.9% | |
| 13 | 4.8% | |
| 14 | 4.1% | |
| 15 | 3.4% | |
| 16 | 2.5% | |
| 17 | 2.4% | |
| 18 | 2.3% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | |
| 20 | 1.5% |
Probability of qualifying for the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.8% | |
| 2 | 7.4% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | |
| 4 | 7.2% | |
| 5 | 6.7% | |
| 6 | 6.5% | |
| 7 | 5.7% | |
| 8 | 5.7% | |
| 9 | 5.6% | |
| 10 | 5.4% | |
| 11 | 5.3% | |
| 12 | 5.1% | |
| 13 | 4.6% | |
| 14 | 3.9% | |
| 15 | 3.5% | |
| 16 | 2.9% | |
| 17 | 2.9% | |
| 18 | 2.8% | |
| 19 | 2.0% | |
| 20 | 1.8% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40.5% | |
| 2 | 37.8% | |
| 3 | 29.2% | |
| 4 | 28.3% | |
| 5 | 27.4% | |
| 6 | 20.5% | |
| 7 | 17.0% | |
| 8 | 13.8% | |
| 9 | 13.4% | |
| 10 | 12.4% | |
| 11 | 12.0% | |
| 12 | 11.0% | |
| 13 | 10.6% | |
| 14 | 8.2% | |
| 15 | 7.2% | |
| 16 | 6.5% | |
| 17 | 2.4% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0.1% |
Round 7 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 7 | 21 | 44% | 82% | 5% | 4% | 0% | |
2 | 7 | 16 | 15% | 55% | 9% | 7% | 1% | |
3 | 7 | 15 | 13% | 50% | 9% | 7% | 1% | |
4 | 6 | 13 | 8% | 38% | 9% | 8% | 2% | |
5 | 6 | 10 | 3% | 21% | 7% | 7% | 7% | |
6↑3 | 7 | 10 | 3% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 7% | |
7↓1 | 6 | 8 | 2% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 11% | |
8↑2 | 7 | 8 | 2% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 12% | |
9↓2 | 6 | 8 | 2% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 12% | |
10↓2 | 6 | 8 | 3% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 8% | |
11↑2 | 6 | 8 | 2% | 14% | 5% | 6% | 11% | |
12↑5 | 5 | 7 | 1% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 13% | |
13↑2 | 7 | 7 | 1% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 14% | |
14↓3 | 6 | 6 | 1% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 21% | |
15↓3 | 5 | 5 | 1% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 17% | |
16↓2 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 28% | |
17↑1 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 27% | |
18↓2 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 29% | |
19↑1 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 38% | |
20↓1 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 41% |
WinUCLUELECLReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Barcelona#1Winner: 44.1%Champions League: 82.1%Europa League: 5.1%Conference League: 3.5%Relegation: 0.1%
5:00 PM
Getafe#11Winner: 1.7%Champions League: 14.0%Europa League: 5.3%Conference League: 5.7%Relegation: 11.0%
98%
0%
Alavés#7Winner: 1.8%Champions League: 14.4%Europa League: 5.6%Conference League: 5.7%Relegation: 10.6%
5:00 PM
Atlético Madrid#4Winner: 7.6%Champions League: 38.0%Europa League: 8.7%Conference League: 7.8%Relegation: 2.4%
67%
14%
Racing Santander#14Winner: 0.8%Champions League: 7.8%Europa League: 3.4%Conference League: 3.9%Relegation: 20.5%
5:00 PM
Valencia#18Winner: 0.3%Champions League: 4.5%Europa League: 2.3%Conference League: 2.8%Relegation: 29.2%
66%
14%
Levante#15Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 9.5%Europa League: 4.1%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 17.0%
5:00 PM
Sevilla#5Winner: 3.0%Champions League: 21.2%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 7.2%Relegation: 6.5%
42%
34%
Elche#16Winner: 0.4%Champions League: 4.6%Europa League: 2.4%Conference League: 2.9%Relegation: 28.3%
5:00 PM
Celta#13Winner: 1.3%Champions League: 11.3%Europa League: 4.8%Conference League: 5.1%Relegation: 13.8%
46%
31%
Betis#2Winner: 14.7%Champions League: 55.0%Europa League: 8.6%Conference League: 7.2%Relegation: 0.7%
5:00 PM
Osasuna#8Winner: 1.5%Champions League: 12.8%Europa League: 5.1%Conference League: 5.4%Relegation: 12.4%
71%
9%
Real Madrid#3Winner: 12.6%Champions League: 50.3%Europa League: 8.7%Conference League: 7.4%Relegation: 1.0%
5:00 PM
Villarreal#12Winner: 1.3%Champions League: 11.8%Europa League: 4.9%Conference League: 5.3%Relegation: 13.4%
96%
1%
Rayo Vallecano#9Winner: 1.6%Champions League: 13.4%Europa League: 5.1%Conference League: 5.6%Relegation: 12.0%
5:00 PM
Athletic Bilbao#10Winner: 2.5%Champions League: 19.0%Europa League: 6.6%Conference League: 6.5%Relegation: 8.2%
75%
9%
Málaga#20Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 2.5%Europa League: 1.5%Conference League: 1.8%Relegation: 40.5%
5:00 PM
Espanyol#17Winner: 0.4%Champions League: 4.9%Europa League: 2.5%Conference League: 2.9%Relegation: 27.4%
6%
79%
Real Sociedad#6Winner: 3.0%Champions League: 20.3%Europa League: 6.7%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 7.2%
5:00 PM
Deportivo#19Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 2.7%Europa League: 1.5%Conference League: 2.0%Relegation: 37.8%
56%
21%
After Round 7: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Real Madrid's UCL probability dropped from 82% to 50.3% (-31.7%).
- ↑Atlético Madrid's UCL probability climbed from 22.3% to 38% (+15.7%).
- ↓Alavés's UCL probability dropped from 29.3% to 14.4% (-14.9%).
- ↑Sevilla's UCL probability climbed from 8.5% to 21.2% (+12.7%).
- ↓Valencia's Releg probability dropped from 41.7% to 29.2% (-12.5%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
La Liga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
La Liga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the La Liga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Barcelona currently have the highest title probability at 44%. With 31 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the La Liga 26/27?
- Málaga currently faces the highest relegation risk at 41%, followed by Deportivo at 38%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate La Liga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the La Liga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions