Serie A 26/27 — Round 4 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 32.6%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 3.0% | 12.9% |
| 2 |  Roma#3Win: 11.1%UCL: 29.3%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 3.8% | 11.1% |
| 3 |  Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.0%UEL: 13.7%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 3.9% | 11.0% |
| 4 |  Como#8Win: 9.6%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 4.9% | 9.6% |
| 5 |  Cagliari#4Win: 7.0%UCL: 21.0%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 5.7% | 7.0% |
| 6 |  Frosinone#9Win: 6.6%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 12.7%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 6.9% | 6.6% |
| 7 |  Sassuolo#6Win: 6.2%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.9% | 6.2% |
| 8 |  Juventus#7Win: 6.1%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.6%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.1% | 6.1% |
| 9 |  Milan#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 18.5%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.2% | 5.7% |
| 10 |  Napoli#10Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.4%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 4.7% |
| 11 |  Lecce#12Win: 4.5%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 4.5% |
| 12 |  Atalanta#11Win: 4.4%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.4% | 4.4% |
| 13 |  Udinese#13Win: 2.6%UCL: 9.9%UEL: 9.1%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 14.9% | 2.6% |
| 14 |  Torino#14Win: 2.0%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 7.8%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.8% | 2.0% |
| 15 |  Fiorentina#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 20.1% | 1.9% |
| 16 |  Parma#16Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.4%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.7%Releg: 28.2% | 1.0% |
| 17 |  Genoa#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.2%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.6%Releg: 29.4% | 1.0% |
| 18 |  Venezia#20Win: 0.7%UCL: 3.2%UEL: 4.5%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.6% | 0.7% |
| 19 |  Bologna#18Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.8%UEL: 4.4%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.2% | 0.6% |
| 20 |  Monza#17Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.1%ECL: 2.3%Releg: 42.2% | 0.3% |
Probability of access to the Champions League group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 32.6%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 3.0% | 32.6% |
| 2 | Roma#3Win: 11.1%UCL: 29.3%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 3.8% | 29.3% |
| 3 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.0%UEL: 13.7%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 3.9% | 29.0% |
| 4 | Como#8Win: 9.6%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 4.9% | 25.9% |
| 5 | Cagliari#4Win: 7.0%UCL: 21.0%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 5.7% | 21.0% |
| 6 | Frosinone#9Win: 6.6%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 12.7%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 6.9% | 19.9% |
| 7 | Sassuolo#6Win: 6.2%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.9% | 19.1% |
| 8 | Juventus#7Win: 6.1%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.6%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.1% | 19.1% |
| 9 | Milan#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 18.5%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.2% | 18.5% |
| 10 | Napoli#10Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.4%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 15.4% |
| 11 | Atalanta#11Win: 4.4%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.4% | 14.7% |
| 12 | Lecce#12Win: 4.5%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 14.7% |
| 13 | Udinese#13Win: 2.6%UCL: 9.9%UEL: 9.1%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 14.9% | 9.9% |
| 14 | Torino#14Win: 2.0%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 7.8%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.8% | 7.6% |
| 15 | Fiorentina#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 20.1% | 7.1% |
| 16 | Parma#16Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.4%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.7%Releg: 28.2% | 4.4% |
| 17 | Genoa#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.2%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.6%Releg: 29.4% | 4.2% |
| 18 | Venezia#20Win: 0.7%UCL: 3.2%UEL: 4.5%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.6% | 3.2% |
| 19 | Bologna#18Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.8%UEL: 4.4%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.2% | 2.8% |
| 20 | Monza#17Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.1%ECL: 2.3%Releg: 42.2% | 1.7% |
Probability of access to the Europa League group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 32.6%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 3.0% | 14.3% |
| 2 | Roma#3Win: 11.1%UCL: 29.3%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 3.8% | 13.8% |
| 3 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.0%UEL: 13.7%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 3.9% | 13.7% |
| 4 | Cagliari#4Win: 7.0%UCL: 21.0%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 5.7% | 13.4% |
| 5 | Como#8Win: 9.6%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 4.9% | 13.4% |
| 6 | Frosinone#9Win: 6.6%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 12.7%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 6.9% | 12.7% |
| 7 | Juventus#7Win: 6.1%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.6%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.1% | 12.6% |
| 8 | Milan#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 18.5%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.2% | 12.4% |
| 9 | Sassuolo#6Win: 6.2%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.9% | 12.4% |
| 10 | Atalanta#11Win: 4.4%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.4% | 11.5% |
| 11 | Napoli#10Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.4%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 11.4% |
| 12 | Lecce#12Win: 4.5%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 11.1% |
| 13 | Udinese#13Win: 2.6%UCL: 9.9%UEL: 9.1%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 14.9% | 9.1% |
| 14 | Torino#14Win: 2.0%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 7.8%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.8% | 7.8% |
| 15 | Fiorentina#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 20.1% | 7.7% |
| 16 | Parma#16Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.4%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.7%Releg: 28.2% | 5.5% |
| 17 | Genoa#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.2%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.6%Releg: 29.4% | 5.5% |
| 18 | Venezia#20Win: 0.7%UCL: 3.2%UEL: 4.5%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.6% | 4.5% |
| 19 | Bologna#18Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.8%UEL: 4.4%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.2% | 4.4% |
| 20 | Monza#17Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.1%ECL: 2.3%Releg: 42.2% | 3.1% |
Probability of access to the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cagliari#4Win: 7.0%UCL: 21.0%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 5.7% | 6.0% |
| 2 | Milan#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 18.5%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.2% | 6.0% |
| 3 | Juventus#7Win: 6.1%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.6%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.1% | 6.0% |
| 4 | Frosinone#9Win: 6.6%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 12.7%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 6.9% | 6.0% |
| 5 | Como#8Win: 9.6%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 4.9% | 5.9% |
| 6 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.0%UEL: 13.7%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 3.9% | 5.8% |
| 7 | Sassuolo#6Win: 6.2%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.9% | 5.8% |
| 8 | Napoli#10Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.4%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 5.8% |
| 9 | Atalanta#11Win: 4.4%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.4% | 5.8% |
| 10 | Lecce#12Win: 4.5%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 5.7% |
| 11 | Roma#3Win: 11.1%UCL: 29.3%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 3.8% | 5.6% |
| 12 | Lazio#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 32.6%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 3.0% | 5.5% |
| 13 | Udinese#13Win: 2.6%UCL: 9.9%UEL: 9.1%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 14.9% | 5.2% |
| 14 | Torino#14Win: 2.0%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 7.8%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.8% | 4.7% |
| 15 | Fiorentina#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 20.1% | 4.6% |
| 16 | Parma#16Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.4%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.7%Releg: 28.2% | 3.7% |
| 17 | Genoa#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.2%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.6%Releg: 29.4% | 3.6% |
| 18 | Bologna#18Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.8%UEL: 4.4%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.2% | 3.0% |
| 19 | Venezia#20Win: 0.7%UCL: 3.2%UEL: 4.5%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.6% | 3.0% |
| 20 | Monza#17Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.1%ECL: 2.3%Releg: 42.2% | 2.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monza#17Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.1%ECL: 2.3%Releg: 42.2% | 42.2% |
| 2 | Venezia#20Win: 0.7%UCL: 3.2%UEL: 4.5%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.6% | 34.6% |
| 3 | Bologna#18Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.8%UEL: 4.4%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.2% | 34.2% |
| 4 | Genoa#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.2%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.6%Releg: 29.4% | 29.4% |
| 5 | Parma#16Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.4%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.7%Releg: 28.2% | 28.2% |
| 6 | Fiorentina#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 20.1% | 20.1% |
| 7 | Torino#14Win: 2.0%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 7.8%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.8% | 18.8% |
| 8 | Udinese#13Win: 2.6%UCL: 9.9%UEL: 9.1%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 14.9% | 14.9% |
| 9 | Lecce#12Win: 4.5%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 9.8% |
| 10 | Atalanta#11Win: 4.4%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.4% | 9.4% |
| 11 | Napoli#10Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.4%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 9.1% |
| 12 | Milan#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 18.5%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.2% | 7.2% |
| 13 | Juventus#7Win: 6.1%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.6%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.1% | 7.1% |
| 14 | Sassuolo#6Win: 6.2%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 15 | Frosinone#9Win: 6.6%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 12.7%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 16 | Cagliari#4Win: 7.0%UCL: 21.0%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 5.7% | 5.7% |
| 17 | Como#8Win: 9.6%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 18 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.0%UEL: 13.7%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 19 | Roma#3Win: 11.1%UCL: 29.3%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 20 | Lazio#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 32.6%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 3.0% | 3.0% |
Round 4 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑2 | Lazio#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 32.6%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 3.0% | 4 | 10 | 13% | 33% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
2 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.0%UEL: 13.7%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 3.9% | 3 | 9 | 11% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
3↓2 | Roma#3Win: 11.1%UCL: 29.3%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 3.8% | 3 | 9 | 11% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
4↑5 | Cagliari#4Win: 7.0%UCL: 21.0%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 5.7% | 4 | 9 | 7% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 6% |
5↓1 | Milan#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 18.5%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.2% | 4 | 8 | 6% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 7% |
6↑4 | Sassuolo#6Win: 6.2%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.9% | 4 | 7 | 6% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 7% |
7↓2 | Juventus#7Win: 6.1%UCL: 19.1%UEL: 12.6%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 7.1% | 4 | 7 | 6% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
8↓2 | Como#8Win: 9.6%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.4%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 4.9% | 3 | 7 | 10% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 5% |
9↓2 | Frosinone#9Win: 6.6%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 12.7%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 6.9% | 4 | 7 | 7% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
10↑2 | Napoli#10Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.4%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 4 | 6 | 5% | 15% | 11% | 6% | 9% |
11↓3 | Atalanta#11Win: 4.4%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.4% | 4 | 6 | 4% | 15% | 12% | 6% | 9% |
12↑2 | Lecce#12Win: 4.5%UCL: 14.7%UEL: 11.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 4 | 6 | 5% | 15% | 11% | 6% | 10% |
13↓2 | Udinese#13Win: 2.6%UCL: 9.9%UEL: 9.1%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 14.9% | 3 | 4 | 3% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 15% |
14↓1 | Torino#14Win: 2.0%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 7.8%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.8% | 3 | 3 | 2% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 19% |
15↑5 | Fiorentina#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 20.1% | 4 | 3 | 2% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 20% |
16↓1 | Parma#16Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.4%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.7%Releg: 28.2% | 3 | 1 | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 28% |
17↓1 | Monza#17Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.1%ECL: 2.3%Releg: 42.2% | 4 | 1 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 42% |
18↓1 | Bologna#18Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.8%UEL: 4.4%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.2% | 4 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 34% |
19 | Genoa#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.2%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 3.6%Releg: 29.4% | 4 | 1 | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 29% |
20↓2 | Venezia#20Win: 0.7%UCL: 3.2%UEL: 4.5%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.6% | 4 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 35% |
WinUCLUELReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Como#8Winner: 9.6%Champions League Groups: 25.9%Europe League Groups: 13.4%Conference League Qualifying: 5.9%Relegation: 4.9%4:30 PMParma#16Winner: 1.0%Champions League Groups: 4.4%Europe League Groups: 5.5%Conference League Qualifying: 3.7%Relegation: 28.2%
4:30 PMParma#16Winner: 1.0%Champions League Groups: 4.4%Europe League Groups: 5.5%Conference League Qualifying: 3.7%Relegation: 28.2%30%
43%
Udinese#13Winner: 2.6%Champions League Groups: 9.9%Europe League Groups: 9.1%Conference League Qualifying: 5.2%Relegation: 14.9%1:00 PMCagliari#4Winner: 7.0%Champions League Groups: 21.0%Europe League Groups: 13.4%Conference League Qualifying: 6.0%Relegation: 5.7%
1:00 PMCagliari#4Winner: 7.0%Champions League Groups: 21.0%Europe League Groups: 13.4%Conference League Qualifying: 6.0%Relegation: 5.7%18%
58%
Bologna#18Winner: 0.6%Champions League Groups: 2.8%Europe League Groups: 4.4%Conference League Qualifying: 3.0%Relegation: 34.2%1:00 PMTorino#14Winner: 2.0%Champions League Groups: 7.6%Europe League Groups: 7.8%Conference League Qualifying: 4.7%Relegation: 18.8%
1:00 PMTorino#14Winner: 2.0%Champions League Groups: 7.6%Europe League Groups: 7.8%Conference League Qualifying: 4.7%Relegation: 18.8%79%
7%
Fiorentina#15Winner: 1.9%Champions League Groups: 7.1%Europe League Groups: 7.7%Conference League Qualifying: 4.6%Relegation: 20.1%10:30 AMNapoli#10Winner: 4.7%Champions League Groups: 15.4%Europe League Groups: 11.4%Conference League Qualifying: 5.8%Relegation: 9.1%
10:30 AMNapoli#10Winner: 4.7%Champions League Groups: 15.4%Europe League Groups: 11.4%Conference League Qualifying: 5.8%Relegation: 9.1%77%
8%
After Round 4: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Roma's UCL probability dropped from 56.1% to 29.3% (-26.8%).
- ↓Lecce's Releg probability dropped from 36% to 9.8% (-26.2%).
- ↓Venezia's Releg probability dropped from 57.8% to 34.6% (-23.2%).
- ↑Bologna's Releg probability climbed from 14.2% to 34.2% (+20%).
- ↓Genoa's Releg probability dropped from 46.2% to 29.4% (-16.8%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Serie A 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
Serie A 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Serie A 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Lazio currently have the highest title probability at 13%. With 34 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Serie A 26/27?
- Monza currently faces the highest relegation risk at 42%, followed by Venezia at 35%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Serie A 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Serie A 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions