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Australia Group Stage Exit Chances 2026 — 52.5%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 8 of 94 · Rank #27 · 1 MP

How far can Australia go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Australia's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: June 14, 2026

Australia FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
0.4%
Winner
52.5%
Group Stage Exit
#27
Position
D
Last 1 matches
Australia are strong contenders for Group Stage Exit at 52.5%, currently ranked 27th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Australia are 27th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 1 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 52.5% chance of group stage exit — with 86 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 1 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, Australia have recorded 1 draw. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their group stage exit probability, Australia's winner chance currently stands at 0.4%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Australia's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 0.4%
  • Final: 1.1%
  • Semifinals: 2.4%
  • Quarterfinals: 6.5%
  • Round of 16: 14.5%
  • Knockout: 47.5%
  • Group Stage Exit: 52.5%

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Scotland Knockout ChancesTunisia Knockout ChancesTurkey Knockout ChancesCanada Knockout ChancesNorway Knockout ChancesEgypt Knockout ChancesAustria Knockout ChancesBosnia and Herzegovina Knockout ChancesQatar Knockout ChancesAlgeria Knockout Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Australia#27Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 2.4%Quarterfinals: 6.5%Round of 16: 14.5%Knockout: 47.5%Group Stage Exit: 52.5%0-0Turkey#24Winner: 0.6%Final: 1.9%Semifinals: 4.3%Quarterfinals: 11.2%Round of 16: 24.0%Knockout: 72.4%Group Stage Exit: 27.6%
United States#6Winner: 5.9%Final: 15.9%Semifinals: 26.5%Quarterfinals: 42.9%Round of 16: 62.1%Knockout: 98.1%Group Stage Exit: 1.9%7:00 PMAustralia#27Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 2.4%Quarterfinals: 6.5%Round of 16: 14.5%Knockout: 47.5%Group Stage Exit: 52.5%
Paraguay#37Winner: 0.1%Final: 0.3%Semifinals: 0.7%Quarterfinals: 2.5%Round of 16: 6.5%Knockout: 30.6%Group Stage Exit: 69.4%2:00 AMAustralia#27Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 2.4%Quarterfinals: 6.5%Round of 16: 14.5%Knockout: 47.5%Group Stage Exit: 52.5%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-06-14Australia#27Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 2.4%Quarterfinals: 6.5%Round of 16: 14.5%Knockout: 47.5%Group Stage Exit: 52.5%0 - 0Turkey#24Winner: 0.6%Final: 1.9%Semifinals: 4.3%Quarterfinals: 11.2%Round of 16: 24.0%Knockout: 72.4%Group Stage Exit: 27.6%