St. Pauli
St. Pauli Relegation Chances 2026 — 44.5%
Bundesliga 25/26 · Round 31 of 34 · Rank #16 · 31 MP
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St. Pauli are 16th in the Bundesliga 25/26 2026 season after 31 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 44.5% chance of relegation — with 3 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.
In their last 5 Bundesliga 25/26 matches, St. Pauli have recorded 2 draws, 3 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.
Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Bundesliga 25/26 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how St. Pauli's 2026 season has evolved round by round.
Current Probabilities:
- Winner: 0.0%Since 2025-10-25
- Champions League: 0.0%Since 2025-11-09
- Europa League: 0.0%Since 2025-11-22
- Conference League: 0.0%Since 2026-01-10
- Relegation: 44.5%
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
3:00 PMSt. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5%Results so far
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | FC Heidenheim#18Relegation: 97.5% | 2 - 0 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2026-04-17 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 1 - 1 |  FC Köln#13Relegation: 0.1% |
| 2026-04-11 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 0 - 5 |  Bayern München#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% |
| 2026-04-05 | Union Berlin#12 | 1 - 1 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2026-03-22 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 1 - 2 |  SC Freiburg#8 |
| 2026-03-13 | Borussia Mönchengladbach#11 | 2 - 0 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2026-03-08 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 0 - 0 |  Eintracht Frankfurt#7 |
| 2026-02-28 | Hoffenheim#4Champions League: 37.6%Europa League: 38.9%Conference League: 23.5% | 0 - 1 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2026-02-22 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 2 - 1 |  SV Werder Bremen#15 |
| 2026-02-14 | Bayer Leverkusen#6Champions League: 16.5%Europa League: 28.5%Conference League: 55.0% | 4 - 0 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2026-02-07 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 2 - 1 |  VfB Stuttgart#5Champions League: 52.8%Europa League: 26.9%Conference League: 20.3% |
| 2026-01-31 | FC Augsburg#9 | 2 - 1 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2026-01-27 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 1 - 1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig#3Champions League: 93.1%Europa League: 5.8%Conference League: 1.1% |
| 2026-01-23 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 0 - 0 |  Hamburger SV#14Relegation: 0.1% |
| 2026-01-17 | Borussia Dortmund#2Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 2 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2026-01-14 | VfL Wolfsburg#17Relegation: 57.9% | 2 - 1 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-12-21 | FSV Mainz#10 | 0 - 0 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-12-13 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 2 - 1 | FC Heidenheim#18Relegation: 97.5% |
| 2025-12-06 | FC Köln#13Relegation: 0.1% | 1 - 1 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-11-29 | Bayern München#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 3 - 1 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-11-23 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 0 - 1 | Union Berlin#12 |
| 2025-11-09 | SC Freiburg#8 | 2 - 1 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-11-01 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 0 - 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach#11 |
| 2025-10-25 | Eintracht Frankfurt#7 | 2 - 0 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-10-19 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 0 - 3 | Hoffenheim#4Champions League: 37.6%Europa League: 38.9%Conference League: 23.5% |
| 2025-10-04 | SV Werder Bremen#15 | 1 - 0 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-09-27 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 1 - 2 | Bayer Leverkusen#6Champions League: 16.5%Europa League: 28.5%Conference League: 55.0% |
| 2025-09-19 | VfB Stuttgart#5Champions League: 52.8%Europa League: 26.9%Conference League: 20.3% | 2 - 0 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-09-14 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 2 - 1 | FC Augsburg#9 |
| 2025-08-29 | Hamburger SV#14Relegation: 0.1% | 0 - 2 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% |
| 2025-08-23 | St. Pauli#16Relegation: 44.5% | 3 - 3 | Borussia Dortmund#2Champions League: 99.9% |