Mexico Winner Chances
FIFA World Cup 2026
Mexico face long odds for winning the title, with only a 3.9% probability, though their odds slipped after the latest round.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 3.9% |
| Final | 10.5% |
| Semifinals | 18.0% |
| Quarterfinals | 47.3% |
| Round of 16 | 72.3% |
| Knockout Stage | 96.4% |
| Group Stage Exit | 3.6% |
Mexico are currently 8th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 table with 2 matches played (1W 1D 0L, 4 pts).
Group A — Path to the Knockout Stage
| Team | Advance % | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 96.4% | 3.9% |
| South Korea | 73.2% | 0.1% |
| Czech Republic | 35.1% | 0.3% |
| South Africa | 65.8% | 0.2% |
🔍 What This Means
At 3.9%, Mexico are currently a long shot for winning the title. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Mexico's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Mexico achieves winning the title across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
Explore World Cup 2026
📋 FIFA World Cup 2026 — Winner odds for every team
| Germany | 17.8% |
| France | 12.6% |
| Brazil | 9.8% |
| Argentina | 9.2% |
| Belgium | 8.5% |
| United States | 5.2% |
| England | 5.2% |
| Portugal | 3.8% |
| Netherlands | 3.4% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full FIFA World Cup 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.