Skip to main content

France logoFrance

France Knockout Chances 2026 — 94.4%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 8 of 94 · Rank #1 · 0 MP

How far can France go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track France's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: June 14, 2026

France FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
11.7%
Winner
5.6%
Group Stage Exit
#1
Position
France are the clear favourites for Knockout at 94.4%, currently ranked 1st — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 11.7%
  • Final: 17.8%
  • Semifinals: 26.4%
  • Quarterfinals: 34.9%
  • Round of 16: 66.6%
  • Knockout: 94.4%
  • Group Stage Exit: 5.6%

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Belgium Final ChancesBrazil Semifinals ChancesGermany Semifinals ChancesArgentina Quarterfinals ChancesUnited States Quarterfinals Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

France#1Winner: 11.7%Final: 17.8%Semifinals: 26.4%Quarterfinals: 34.9%Round of 16: 66.6%Knockout: 94.4%Group Stage Exit: 5.6%7:00 PMSenegal#16Winner: 1.8%Final: 4.2%Semifinals: 8.2%Quarterfinals: 14.7%Round of 16: 38.4%Knockout: 78.0%Group Stage Exit: 22.0%
France#1Winner: 11.7%Final: 17.8%Semifinals: 26.4%Quarterfinals: 34.9%Round of 16: 66.6%Knockout: 94.4%Group Stage Exit: 5.6%9:00 PMIraq#38Winner: 0.1%Final: 0.2%Semifinals: 0.6%Quarterfinals: 1.9%Round of 16: 8.5%Knockout: 34.1%Group Stage Exit: 65.9%
Norway#25Winner: 0.6%Final: 1.6%Semifinals: 3.7%Quarterfinals: 8.0%Round of 16: 27.4%Knockout: 67.8%Group Stage Exit: 32.2%7:00 PMFrance#1Winner: 11.7%Final: 17.8%Semifinals: 26.4%Quarterfinals: 34.9%Round of 16: 66.6%Knockout: 94.4%Group Stage Exit: 5.6%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway