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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-04-25

Juventude Surge to 27% Promotion Probability

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Juventude Surge to 27% Promotion Probability

In a thrilling sixth round of the Brasileiro Serie B, Sport and Juventude made significant strides both on the field and in their championship probabilities. Sport's narrow 1-0 victory over Novorizontino not only propelled them to second place in the standings but also boosted their chances of winning the league from 4.5% to 6.7%. Additionally, their promotion probability saw a healthy increase to 25.9%, while their relegation risks decreased to a safer 12.2%. Juventude mirrored this success with a 1-0 triumph against Londrina, which elevated them to third place and increased their chances of winning the title to 7.1%. Their promotion hopes have risen significantly to 27.0%, while their relegation threat has diminished to just 11.6%.

On the other hand, Novorizontino's defeat proved costly. They slipped from fourth to thirteenth in the standings, and their probability of winning the title fell from 6.3% to 4.2%. Meanwhile, their promotion chances took a hit, dropping to 18.6%, and they now face an increased relegation risk at 18.2%. Londrina's position also weakened as their relegation probability climbed to a concerning 31.7% following their loss to Juventude, while their promotion chances dwindled further to 9.6%.

Elsewhere in the league, América-MG's struggles continued, with their relegation probability now at a daunting 48.7%, while their promotion hopes plummeted to 4.4%. A notable shift in the standings saw Sport catapult from thirteenth to fifth place, while Juventude made a commendable jump from tenth to fourth. As the season progresses, the battle for promotion and the fight against relegation intensify, promising more twists and turns in the coming rounds. Keep an eye on the next matches as teams strive to solidify their standings and improve their chances in this fiercely competitive league.

Live probability analysis

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