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Bundesliga 26/27·2026-10-18·Round 6

Bayer Leverkusen's Champions League Hopes Rise

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Bayer Leverkusen's Champions League Hopes Rise

Bayer Leverkusen's 2-1 victory over SC Freiburg has significantly impacted their Champions League qualification prospects, which have surged from 34.9% to 45.0%. This win also boosted their title-winning probability from 8.7% to 13.2%. Leverkusen now sits 4th in the standings with 13 points, closely trailing Freiburg on goal difference.

SC Freiburg experienced a notable decline in their Champions League probability, dropping from 54.1% to 45.5% after the loss. Additionally, their chances of claiming the Bundesliga title fell from 19.4% to 14.0%. Freiburg's defeat pushed them from 1st to 3rd in the league standings, underlining the competitive nature of the Bundesliga this season.

Hoffenheim's 2-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach has improved their standing, moving them up from 17th to 14th place. Their probability of relegation decreased from 11.7% to 6.5%, while their Champions League chances rose from 6.9% to 10.4%. Mönchengladbach, however, remains at the bottom of the table, with their relegation probability increasing from 25.8% to 32.8%.

As the Bundesliga progresses, attention will be on whether Bayer Leverkusen can maintain their upward trajectory and how SC Freiburg responds to their setback. The upcoming matches will be crucial in shaping the league table and determining which teams secure European competition spots.

Live probability analysis

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