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2. Bundesliga 26/27·2026-11-07·Round 11

Hertha BSC's Promotion Odds Surge to 85.2%

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

After Round 11 results, Hertha BSC has strengthened its commanding position in the 2. Bundesliga, with promotion probabilities increasing from 79.3% to 85.2%. Their 2-1 victory over VfL Wolfsburg not only solidified their lead at the top of the standings but also increased their championship probability from 60.7% to 66.6%. Hertha remains unbeaten with 31 points, boasting a significant goal difference advantage.

Nürnberg also saw a positive swing in their promotion prospects, climbing to 42.9% from 33.8%, following their 2-0 win against Darmstadt 98. This victory has kept them in a strong second position, now seven points behind Hertha. Kaiserslautern's narrow victory over Osnabrück has improved their playoff chances from 12.6% to 16.0%, maintaining their third-place position in the league.

In contrast, Osnabrück's situation worsened, with their relegation probability increasing by 10.0%, now at 23.7%. Their defeat to Kaiserslautern has dropped them to 14th place and diminished their playoff and promotion hopes to 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. Similarly, Greuther Fürth is out of the promotion race, with their probability falling to 0.8%.

As the league progresses, Hertha BSC and Nürnberg will aim to consolidate their positions, while the relegation battle intensifies at the bottom of the table.

Live probability analysis

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