La Liga 25/26·2026-03-02

Barcelona Extends Lead as Real Madrid Stumbles

· Round-up

Real Madrid's unexpected 1-0 loss to Getafe has significantly altered the dynamics at the top of La Liga, boosting Barcelona’s chances of claiming the title. This defeat has widened the gap, allowing Barcelona to stretch their lead to four points. Consequently, Real Madrid’s probability of winning the league has dropped sharply by 7.3%, now standing at 23.6%. In contrast, Barcelona's chances have been bolstered to a commanding 74.8%, reflecting their strong position in the standings with 64 points.

Getafe’s victory not only dampened Real Madrid’s title hopes but also improved their own prospects. Their relegation probability decreased from 5.9% to a mere 2.4%, signaling a more secure position in the league. Additionally, Getafe's slim chances of sneaking into the Conference League have seen a slight uptick to 4.2%, adding a glimmer of hope for European competition next season.

Meanwhile, the relegation battle at the bottom of the table is intensifying. Mallorca's recent struggles have resulted in a significant increase in their relegation probability, climbing from 36.9% to 48.3% over the past three rounds. Real Oviedo finds themselves in an even grimmer situation, with their chances of dropping out of the top tier rising to a daunting 89.1%.

As the league progresses, all eyes will be on whether Real Madrid can recover from this setback, and if Getafe can maintain their upward momentum. The spotlight will also be on the relegation battle, where Mallorca and Real Oviedo are fighting to remain in La Liga.