La Liga 25/26·2026-03-22

Barcelona Tightens Grip on La Liga Title as Rayo Vallecano Faces Relegation Woes

· Round-up

Barcelona continues to assert their dominance in La Liga with a narrow 1-0 victory over Rayo Vallecano, solidifying their position at the top of the league with 73 points. This victory, while expected given their 77.4% pre-match probability to win, leaves Barcelona in a commanding position to clinch the title. Meanwhile, Rayo Vallecano’s defeat, coupled with their other recent struggles, has seen their relegation probability jump to 10.1%, putting them in a precarious situation as the season progresses.

Real Madrid emerged victorious in a thrilling 3-2 win against Atlético de Madrid, maintaining their second-place standing with 69 points. This result virtually secures their Champions League spot, while Atlético remains in the race, albeit with a diminished probability of a title win at just 0.4%. Villarreal, despite being out of the Europa League contention, boasts a near-certain 99.7% chance of securing a Champions League spot, reflecting their strong performance throughout the season.

Athletic Bilbao’s recent 2-1 victory over Betis has sparked new hope for European competition as they enter the Europa League race with a 5.5% chance. Meanwhile, Betis’ hopes of reaching the Champions League have been dashed, dropping to just 0.7%. Elsewhere, Alavés' surprising 4-3 win over Celta has significantly improved their survival prospects, cutting their relegation probability down to 17.8%.

As the season progresses, the battle for European spots heats up, with Getafe and Osasuna making strides in their respective races. Meanwhile, the fight to avoid relegation intensifies, with Mallorca’s risk climbing significantly to 49.3%. With several key matchups on the horizon, the coming rounds promise to be decisive for teams across the table.