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La Liga 25/26·2026-05-02

Barcelona Surge to 100% Title Probability

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Barcelona Surge to 100% Title Probability

Athletic Bilbao's probability of qualifying for the Conference League has increased from 4.7% to 11.0% following their 4-2 victory over Alavés. This win has positioned them strongly in the race for European competition. Meanwhile, Levante's relegation probability has significantly risen from 69.4% to 84.3% after a heavy 5-1 defeat against Villarreal, marking a critical point in their battle to stay in La Liga.

Alavés has experienced an increase in relegation probability, now at 31.6%, up from 22.4%. Their loss to Athletic Bilbao has contributed to this unfavorable shift. Conversely, Sevilla's relegation threat has decreased to 49.3%, down by 8.8% from the previous round. This change offers a glimmer of hope for Sevilla as they fight to maintain their top-flight status.

Valencia is effectively out of the Conference League race with their probability dropping to a mere 0.2% following their 2-0 defeat against Atlético de Madrid. This loss also slightly increased their relegation risk to 4.7%, up from 3.2%. Osasuna's prospects for the Conference League have similarly diminished, now at 3.9% from 10.3%, after a 2-1 loss to Barcelona.

In the upcoming rounds, attention will be focused on whether Athletic Bilbao can solidify their position in European competition and if Levante can reverse their relegation trajectory. With only four matches remaining, every game carries significant implications for the final standings.

Live probability analysis

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