Betis#3 · 15 pts achieved a significant milestone by defeating Real Madrid#2 · 16 pts 1-0 in their Round 4 match on September 4, 2026. This victory has propelled Betis#3 · 15 pts into the Champions League, with their probability of qualification skyrocketing from 45.2% to 100%. The win also means Betis#3 · 15 pts is no longer in contention for the Europa League and Conference League, with their probabilities dropping from 21.6% and 17.6%, respectively, to 0.0%.
Real Madrid#2 · 16 pts's loss had a substantial impact on their championship ambitions. Their chance of winning the title has plummeted from 33.3% to 0.0%, effectively eliminating them from the race. The defeat also affected their standings, dropping them to second place with 9 points, behind Barcelona#1 · 21 pts on goal difference.
In contrast, Osasuna#10 · 8 pts capitalized on the situation, entering the winner race with an increased probability of 11.1% from a previous 3.7%. Meanwhile, Valencia#18 · 4 pts sees its relegation risk decline from 6.4% to 2.2%, and Sevilla#5 · 10 pts's Champions League prospects improved, now standing at 7.4%, up from 2.2%.
As the league progresses, all eyes will be on the shifts in standings and probabilities, especially with Betis#3 · 15 pts now a confirmed presence in the Champions League. The next rounds will provide further clarity on the evolving championship and relegation battles.