Serie A 25/26·2026-03-08

Milan Gains Ground After Derby Victory While Relegation Fears Deepen for Cremonese

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Milan's narrow 1-0 victory over city rivals Inter has not only bolstered their standing in the Serie A title race but has also cemented their place in the Champions League group stage for next season. The win was a pivotal moment in the season, as it propelled Milan's chances of winning the championship from 4.1% to 8.8%, while Inter's lead at the top of the table remains somewhat secure despite their probability of claiming the title dropping to 89.5%. This result means Milan is now only seven points behind Inter, with ten matches remaining in the season.

Elsewhere, Genoa's surprising 2-1 win over Roma has significantly decreased their relegation worries, with their probability of dropping to Serie B now standing at a mere 3.6%. Conversely, Cremonese's defeat to Lecce has dramatically increased their chances of relegation to 47.5%. Lecce, on the other hand, have taken a significant step towards safety, with their relegation probability plummeting to 16.4%, a remarkable improvement over two rounds.

Juventus and Como are battling hard for Champions League qualification. Juventus, following recent positive performances, now hold a 56.2% chance of securing a Champions League berth, while Como's prospects have also risen to 68.9%. Roma's defeat, however, has seen their Champions League probability drop to 63.5%, casting doubt over their European ambitions.

The next rounds promise to be thrilling as Milan continues to chase Inter at the top, while teams like Lecce and Genoa look to solidify their top-flight status. Meanwhile, the pressure mounts on Cremonese and Hellas Verona at the bottom of the table, where every point counts in the fight against relegation.