Boca Juniors#9 · 0 pts face Vasco#9 · 0 pts on October 13, 2026, in the first leg of their semifinal clash. The advancement probabilities are finely balanced: Boca Juniors#9 · 0 pts sit at 47.1% while Vasco#9 · 0 pts hold a slight edge at 52.9%. Both teams have an assured 100% probability of being in the semifinals, but their paths diverge significantly when it comes to the prospect of lifting the trophy. Boca Juniors#9 · 0 pts have a 31.3% chance of winning the tournament, whereas Vasco#9 · 0 pts's probability is marginally higher at 36.0%. A close contest is statistically expected as Boca Juniors#9 · 0 pts aim to leverage home advantage to alter the current probability delta in their favor.
Atlético-MG#9 · 0 pts will host Montevideo City Torque#9 · 0 pts on October 14, 2026, to open their semifinal encounter. Atlético-MG#9 · 0 pts's probability of advancing stands at a dominant 71.9%, indicating a strong position compared to Montevideo City Torque#9 · 0 pts's 28.1%. Both teams are confirmed at a 100% probability in the semifinals, yet their chances for ultimate victory are disparate. Atlético-MG#9 · 0 pts holds a 26.5% probability of winning the competition, while Montevideo City Torque#9 · 0 pts remains an outlier at 6.3%. Atlético-MG#9 · 0 pts's expected points from this fixture will be critical in maintaining their advancement advantage.
Alberto Ibarra