Skip to main content
Premier League 25/26·2026-04-13·Round 32

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Could Change the Title Race (2%…

· Match Report

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Could Change the Title Race (2%…

In a surprising turn of events, Leeds United secured a crucial 2-1 victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford, significantly influencing the championship probabilities for both teams. Before the match, Manchester United seemed well on their way to securing a Champions League spot with an 86.7% probability. However, the defeat has seen their chances dip to 79.2%, while their Europa League prospects increased slightly to 13.9%.

For Leeds United, this win was more than just three points. It marks a significant step away from the relegation zone, with their chances of dropping out of the Premier League decreasing from 9.6% to a much safer 2.7%. This victory not only boosts morale but also provides breathing room as they sit in 15th place with 36 points, keeping a comfortable distance from the bottom three.

The ripple effects of this match extend beyond the two clubs involved. Tottenham's relegation risk has increased to 51.8%, highlighting their precarious position in the standings. Meanwhile, Liverpool's hopes for Champions League qualification have strengthened, rising to 35.0% as they look to capitalize on Manchester United's slip.

As the Premier League season heads into its final stages, all eyes will be on how the top and bottom of the table continue to evolve. Manchester United must quickly regain their form to secure their Champions League ambitions, while Leeds will aim to build on this momentum to ensure their top-flight status.