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FIFA World Cup 2026·2026-07-11·Round 99

England Secures Semifinal Spot, Norway's Hopes Dashed

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

England's journey in the FIFA World Cup 2026 sees a significant advancement as they secure a place in the semifinals, with their probability climbing from 74.3% to 100.0% following their 2-1 victory over Norway. This win also boosts England's chances of reaching the final, which increased from 42.4% to 56.9%, and their probability of winning the tournament now stands at 20.0%, up from 14.1%.

In contrast, Norway's chances have been severely impacted. Their hope of reaching the semifinals dropped from 25.7% to 0.0%, effectively eliminating them from the final and winner races as well, both of which now stand at 0.0%. Norway's position in the standings has fallen dramatically from 5th to 44th following recent results, marking a significant decline in their tournament prospects.

The match between Argentina and Switzerland ended in a 1-1 draw, resulting in a slight decrease in Argentina's probability to reach the final, which fell from 41.0% to 35.1%. Their chance of winning the World Cup also decreased from 13.7% to 11.8%. Switzerland, meanwhile, saw a modest increase in their semifinal probability from 23.3% to 25.7%.

Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the upcoming matches where England will aim to capitalize on their momentum, and teams like Argentina and Switzerland will seek to improve their standings. Observers will be keen to see how these probability shifts influence the dynamics of the competition in the next rounds.

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