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Real Madrid

Real Madrid Quarterfinals Chances

Champions League 2026/27

3.1%
Champion
8.2%
Final
19.8%
Semifinals
42.5%
↓ -0.1% since last round
Quarterfinals
77.3%
Round of 16
94.1%
Playoff Spot
5.9%
Eliminated

Real Madrid remain in realistic contention for reaching the Quarterfinals at 42.5%, though their odds slipped after the latest round.

Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 18Last updated: 25 days ago

📊 Full Probability Breakdown

Champion3.1%
Final8.2%
Semifinals19.8%
Quarterfinals42.5%
Round of 1677.3%
Playoff Spot94.1%
Eliminated5.9%

Real Madrid are currently 7th in the Champions League 2026/27 table with 0 matches played (0W 0D 0L, 3 pts).

Probability History

🔍 What This Means

At 42.5%, Real Madrid are currently a realistic contender for reaching the Quarterfinals. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Real Madrid's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Over the last 18 rounds, Real Madrid's probability of reaching the Quarterfinals has climbed from 36.2% to 42.5%.

How These Probabilities Are Calculated

CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Real Madrid achieves reaching the Quarterfinals across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.

📋 Champions League 2026/27 — Quarterfinals odds for every team

Bayern München82.3%
Barcelona76.1%
Inter69.1%
Manchester City67.5%
Arsenal58.7%
Manchester United47.7%
Roma36.0%
Borussia Dortmund25.4%
Napoli21.8%

Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Champions League 2026/27 table →

View full Real Madrid stats →

Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.