World Cup 2026 Knockout Bracket
KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK
Probability snapshot across 9 rounds of group and knockout play.
From the Round of 32 onward, the 2026 FIFA World Cup turns into a single-elimination knockout. This page tracks the most likely path to the final for the leading contenders, based on live simulations that update as group standings and results come in.
Expected champion
Spain
Winner: 64.0%
Knockout bracket outlook
Predicted bracket based on up to 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
Round of 32
(3)1 – 1(4)
3 – 0
0 – 1
(2)1 – 1(3)
2 – 1
3 – 0
2 – 0
3 – 2
0 – 1
0 – 3
0 – 1
1 – 4
2 – 0
2 – 1
0 – 2
75%25%
2 – 1
1 – 2
2 – 0
2 – 1
3 – 2
(2)1 – 1(4)
2 – 0
1 – 0
1 – 2
2 – 3
3 – 2
(4)0 – 0(3)
1 – 2
1 – 1
confirmed
69%31%
Final
Spain
England
75%25%
Semifinals
France
0
Spain
2
confirmed
England
Argentina
69%31%
Quarterfinals
France
2
Morocco
0
Spain
2
Belgium
1
Norway
1
England
2
Argentina
1
Switzerland
1
Round of 16
Paraguay
0
France
1
Canada
0
Morocco
3
Portugal
0
Spain
1
United States
1
Belgium
4
Brazil
1
Norway
2
Mexico
2
England
3
Argentina
3
Egypt
2
Switzerland
0
(4 pen)
Colombia
0
(3 pen)
Round of 32
Germany
1
(3 pen)
Paraguay
1
(4 pen)
France
3
Sweden
0
South Africa
0
Canada
1
Netherlands
1
(2 pen)
Morocco
1
(3 pen)
Portugal
2
Croatia
1
Spain
3
Austria
0
United States
2
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0
Belgium
3
Senegal
2
Brazil
2
Japan
1
Ivory Coast
1
Norway
2
Mexico
2
Ecuador
0
England
2
DR Congo
1
Argentina
3
Cape Verde
2
Australia
1
(2 pen)
Egypt
1
(4 pen)
Switzerland
2
Algeria
0
Colombia
1
Ghana
0
Slot assignments reflect expected group outcomes. Best-third slots show the 8 most likely third-place qualifiers.
Knockout probability table
| # | Team | Semifinals | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 64.0% | |
| 2 | 100.0% | 57.0% | 21.8% | |
| 3 | 64.3% | 28.9% | 9.9% | |
| 4 | 35.7% | 14.1% | 4.3% | |
| 5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Group standings
Current rankings inside each group, plus each team's knockout probability.
Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 4 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 1 | -3 | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0 | -2 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group B
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 4 | -1 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 1 | -8 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group C
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group D
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 4 | -2 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 3 | -2 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group E
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 6 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 4 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 1 | -8 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group F
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 4 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 0 | -10 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group G
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 5 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1 | -6 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group H
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2 | -4 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group I
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group J
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group K
| # | Team | P | GD | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 0 | -9 | 0.0% |
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Group L
Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page
Third-place standings
The 8 best third-place teams across all groups advanced to the Round of 32.
| # | Grp | Team | P | W | GD | GF | Knockout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K | 4 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | F | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | E | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | L | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 5 | B | 4 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 100.0% | |
| 6 | J | 4 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 100.0% | |
| 7 | D | 4 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 8 | I | 3 | 1 | +2 | 8 | 100.0% | |
| 9 | G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| 10 | C | 3 | 1 | -3 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 11 | H | 2 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| 12 | A | 1 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0.0% |
Top 8 advanced to Round of 32