FIFA World Cup 2026
KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK
Probability snapshot across 9 rounds of group and knockout play.
From the Round of 32 onward, the 2026 FIFA World Cup turns into a single-elimination knockout. This page tracks the most likely path to the final for the leading contenders, based on live simulations that update as group standings and results come in.
Expected champion
France
Winner: 12.4%
Knockout bracket outlook
Predicted bracket based on FIFA rankings simulation.
Final
France
1st Grp I
vs
Brazil
1st Grp C
54%46%
Semifinals
France
1st Grp I
vs
Belgium
1st Grp G
52%48%
Brazil
1st Grp C
vs
Argentina
1st Grp J
57%43%
Quarterfinals
France
1st Grp I
vs
Netherlands
1st Grp F
70%30%
Spain
1st Grp H
vs
Belgium
1st Grp G
22%78%
Brazil
1st Grp C
vs
England
1st Grp L
68%32%
Argentina
1st Grp J
vs
Portugal
1st Grp K
68%32%
Round of 16
Germany
1st Grp E
vs
France
1st Grp I
43%57%
Czech Republic
2nd Grp A
vs
Netherlands
1st Grp F
16%84%
Colombia
2nd Grp K
vs
Spain
1st Grp H
36%64%
United States
1st Grp D
vs
Belgium
1st Grp G
33%67%
Brazil
1st Grp C
vs
Ecuador
2nd Grp E
88%12%
Mexico
1st Grp A
vs
England
1st Grp L
49%51%
Argentina
1st Grp J
vs
Turkey
2nd Grp D
93%7%
Switzerland
1st Grp B
vs
Portugal
1st Grp K
37%63%
Round of 32
Germany
1st Grp E
vs
Scotland
3rd (A/B/C/D/F)
69%31%
France
1st Grp I
vs
New Zealand
3rd (C/D/F/G/H)
76%24%
Czech Republic
2nd Grp A
vs
Canada
2nd Grp B
59%41%
Netherlands
1st Grp F
vs
Morocco
2nd Grp C
74%26%
Colombia
2nd Grp K
vs
Croatia
2nd Grp L
63%37%
Spain
1st Grp H
vs
Austria
2nd Grp J
74%26%
United States
1st Grp D
vs
Curaçao
3rd (A/E/G/J/L)
75%25%
Belgium
1st Grp G
vs
Norway
3rd (A/E/H/I/J)
78%22%
Brazil
1st Grp C
vs
Sweden
2nd Grp F
67%33%
Ecuador
2nd Grp E
vs
Senegal
2nd Grp I
56%44%
Mexico
1st Grp A
vs
Norway
3rd (C/E/F/H/I)
77%23%
England
1st Grp L
vs
Norway
3rd (B/H/I/J/K)
79%21%
Argentina
1st Grp J
vs
Uruguay
2nd Grp H
75%25%
Turkey
2nd Grp D
vs
Egypt
2nd Grp G
64%36%
Switzerland
1st Grp B
vs
Norway
3rd (E/F/G/I/J)
71%29%
Portugal
1st Grp K
vs
Algeria
3rd (B/D/J/L)
75%25%
Slot assignments reflect expected group outcomes. Best-third slots show the 8 most likely third-place qualifiers.
Knockout probability table
| # | Team | Knockout | Round of 16 | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 94.7% | 67.4% | 34.5% | 26.8% | 18.5% | 12.4% | |
| 2 | 96.5% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 30.7% | 16.1% | 11.4% | |
| 3 | 91.1% | 71.3% | 47.3% | 28.7% | 15.8% | 10.6% | |
| 4 | 96.0% | 68.7% | 39.0% | 27.5% | 16.5% | 9.2% | |
| 5 | 95.4% | 65.7% | 46.1% | 35.3% | 16.7% | 7.9% | |
| 6 | 98.2% | 62.1% | 43.6% | 27.6% | 17.1% | 5.6% | |
| 7 | 88.5% | 56.3% | 32.5% | 15.9% | 9.8% | 5.3% | |
| 8 | 92.8% | 65.2% | 33.8% | 17.8% | 10.4% | 5.1% | |
| 9 | 98.2% | 78.4% | 53.2% | 20.8% | 12.8% | 4.9% | |
| 10 | 93.1% | 68.1% | 36.1% | 17.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | |
| 11 | 94.7% | 60.3% | 25.7% | 12.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | |
| 12 | 91.7% | 61.7% | 39.9% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 2.2% | |
| 13 | 88.5% | 58.3% | 27.9% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 14 | 80.0% | 41.8% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 15 | 76.6% | 36.2% | 13.6% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | |
| 16 | 91.3% | 51.1% | 19.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | |
| 17 | 87.6% | 45.5% | 16.2% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 85.6% | 49.9% | 22.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 64.1% | 26.8% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | |
| 20 | 60.9% | 24.5% | 12.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 62.1% | 37.2% | 20.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 64.7% | 24.3% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 70.0% | 21.9% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 69.4% | 27.7% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 56.3% | 16.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 80.9% | 25.0% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 64.1% | 27.2% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 71.2% | 24.0% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 66.1% | 31.3% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 66.8% | 21.7% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 57.9% | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 53.4% | 20.4% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 68.6% | 20.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 39.4% | 16.3% | 7.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 65.6% | 19.7% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 53.1% | 15.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 52.5% | 17.4% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 30.0% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 43.8% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 38.5% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 35.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 66.2% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 43 | 47.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 44 | 29.4% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 45 | 20.9% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 46 | 21.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 47 | 18.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 48 | 17.2% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |