2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 6 of 34
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC#1Win: 39.2%Promo: 59.5%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.1% | 39.2% |
| 2 |  Nürnberg#2Win: 24.8%Promo: 44.9%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 0.2% | 24.8% |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 6.8%Promo: 16.4%Playoff: 10.5%Releg: 1.8% | 6.8% |
| 4 |  Kaiserslautern#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.7% | 6.4% |
| 5 |  Magdeburg#5Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.6%Playoff: 8.9%Releg: 2.5% | 4.8% |
| 6 |  FC Heidenheim#6Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 8.4%Releg: 2.6% | 4.8% |
| 7 |  Cottbus#7Win: 2.6%Promo: 7.2%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 5.2% | 2.6% |
| 8 |  St. Pauli#8Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.5%Releg: 7.4% | 1.8% |
| 9 |  Bochum#9Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.4%Releg: 7.5% | 1.8% |
| 10 |  Hannover 96#10Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.9%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 7.7% | 1.7% |
| 11 |  Osnabrück#11Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 8.0% | 1.7% |
| 12 |  Greuther Fürth#12Win: 1.2%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 3.4%Releg: 10.4% | 1.2% |
| 13 |  Bielefeld#13Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.7%Playoff: 2.7%Releg: 13.1% | 0.8% |
| 14 |  Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.9%Releg: 18.5% | 0.5% |
| 15 |  Holstein Kiel#15Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.4%Releg: 22.8% | 0.4% |
| 16 |  Darmstadt 98#16Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 25.2% | 0.4% |
| 17 |  Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.2%Promo: 0.8%Playoff: 1.0%Releg: 30.1% | 0.2% |
| 18 |  Braunschweig#18Win: 0.1%Promo: 0.6%Playoff: 0.7%Releg: 35.4% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 39.2%Promo: 59.5%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.1% | 59.5% |
| 2 | Nürnberg#2Win: 24.8%Promo: 44.9%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 0.2% | 44.9% |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 6.8%Promo: 16.4%Playoff: 10.5%Releg: 1.8% | 16.4% |
| 4 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.7% | 15.6% |
| 5 | Magdeburg#5Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.6%Playoff: 8.9%Releg: 2.5% | 12.6% |
| 6 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 8.4%Releg: 2.6% | 12.0% |
| 7 | Cottbus#7Win: 2.6%Promo: 7.2%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 5.2% | 7.2% |
| 8 | St. Pauli#8Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.5%Releg: 7.4% | 5.1% |
| 9 | Bochum#9Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.4%Releg: 7.5% | 5.1% |
| 10 | Hannover 96#10Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.9%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 7.7% | 4.9% |
| 11 | Osnabrück#11Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 8.0% | 4.8% |
| 12 | Greuther Fürth#12Win: 1.2%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 3.4%Releg: 10.4% | 3.6% |
| 13 | Bielefeld#13Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.7%Playoff: 2.7%Releg: 13.1% | 2.7% |
| 14 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.9%Releg: 18.5% | 1.8% |
| 15 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.4%Releg: 22.8% | 1.2% |
| 16 | Darmstadt 98#16Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 25.2% | 1.2% |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.2%Promo: 0.8%Playoff: 1.0%Releg: 30.1% | 0.8% |
| 18 | Braunschweig#18Win: 0.1%Promo: 0.6%Playoff: 0.7%Releg: 35.4% | 0.6% |
Chances of participation in the playoff phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nürnberg#2Win: 24.8%Promo: 44.9%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 0.2% | 13.9% |
| 2 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 39.2%Promo: 59.5%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.1% | 12.3% |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 6.8%Promo: 16.4%Playoff: 10.5%Releg: 1.8% | 10.5% |
| 4 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.7% | 10.2% |
| 5 | Magdeburg#5Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.6%Playoff: 8.9%Releg: 2.5% | 8.9% |
| 6 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 8.4%Releg: 2.6% | 8.4% |
| 7 | Cottbus#7Win: 2.6%Promo: 7.2%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 5.2% | 5.8% |
| 8 | St. Pauli#8Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.5%Releg: 7.4% | 4.5% |
| 9 | Bochum#9Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.4%Releg: 7.5% | 4.4% |
| 10 | Hannover 96#10Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.9%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 7.7% | 4.3% |
| 11 | Osnabrück#11Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 8.0% | 4.3% |
| 12 | Greuther Fürth#12Win: 1.2%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 3.4%Releg: 10.4% | 3.4% |
| 13 | Bielefeld#13Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.7%Playoff: 2.7%Releg: 13.1% | 2.7% |
| 14 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.9%Releg: 18.5% | 1.9% |
| 15 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.4%Releg: 22.8% | 1.4% |
| 16 | Darmstadt 98#16Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 25.2% | 1.3% |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.2%Promo: 0.8%Playoff: 1.0%Releg: 30.1% | 1.0% |
| 18 | Braunschweig#18Win: 0.1%Promo: 0.6%Playoff: 0.7%Releg: 35.4% | 0.7% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braunschweig#18Win: 0.1%Promo: 0.6%Playoff: 0.7%Releg: 35.4% | 35.4% |
| 2 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.2%Promo: 0.8%Playoff: 1.0%Releg: 30.1% | 30.1% |
| 3 | Darmstadt 98#16Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 25.2% | 25.2% |
| 4 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.4%Releg: 22.8% | 22.8% |
| 5 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.9%Releg: 18.5% | 18.5% |
| 6 | Bielefeld#13Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.7%Playoff: 2.7%Releg: 13.1% | 13.1% |
| 7 | Greuther Fürth#12Win: 1.2%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 3.4%Releg: 10.4% | 10.4% |
| 8 | Osnabrück#11Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 8.0% | 8.0% |
| 9 | Hannover 96#10Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.9%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 7.7% | 7.7% |
| 10 | Bochum#9Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.4%Releg: 7.5% | 7.5% |
| 11 | St. Pauli#8Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.5%Releg: 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 12 | Cottbus#7Win: 2.6%Promo: 7.2%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 13 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 8.4%Releg: 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 14 | Magdeburg#5Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.6%Playoff: 8.9%Releg: 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 15 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 6.8%Promo: 16.4%Playoff: 10.5%Releg: 1.8% | 1.8% |
| 16 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 17 | Nürnberg#2Win: 24.8%Promo: 44.9%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 18 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 39.2%Promo: 59.5%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 6 of 34
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | PO | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 39.2%Promo: 59.5%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.1% | 6 | 18 | 39% | 60% | 12% | 0% |
2 | Nürnberg#2Win: 24.8%Promo: 44.9%Playoff: 13.9%Releg: 0.2% | 6 | 16 | 25% | 45% | 14% | 0% |
3↑2 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 6.8%Promo: 16.4%Playoff: 10.5%Releg: 1.8% | 6 | 11 | 7% | 16% | 11% | 2% |
4↑2 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.7% | 6 | 11 | 6% | 16% | 10% | 2% |
5↓2 | Magdeburg#5Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.6%Playoff: 8.9%Releg: 2.5% | 5 | 10 | 5% | 13% | 9% | 3% |
6↓2 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 4.8%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 8.4%Releg: 2.6% | 5 | 10 | 5% | 12% | 8% | 3% |
7 | Energie Cottbus#7Win: 2.6%Promo: 7.2%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 5.2% | 6 | 8 | 3% | 7% | 6% | 5% |
8↑1 | St. Pauli#8Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.5%Releg: 7.4% | 6 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
9↓1 | Bochum#9Win: 1.8%Promo: 5.1%Playoff: 4.4%Releg: 7.5% | 6 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 4% | 8% |
10↑3 | Hannover 96#10Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.9%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 7.7% | 6 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 4% | 8% |
11↓1 | Osnabrück#11Win: 1.7%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 8.0% | 5 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 4% | 8% |
12↓1 | Greuther Fürth#12Win: 1.2%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 3.4%Releg: 10.4% | 6 | 6 | 1% | 4% | 3% | 10% |
13↓1 | Arminia Bielefeld#13Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.7%Playoff: 2.7%Releg: 13.1% | 5 | 5 | 1% | 3% | 3% | 13% |
14 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.9%Releg: 18.5% | 6 | 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 19% |
15↑1 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.4%Releg: 22.8% | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 23% |
16↓1 | Darmstadt 98#16Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 25.2% | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 25% |
17 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.2%Promo: 0.8%Playoff: 1.0%Releg: 30.1% | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 30% |
18 | Eintracht Braunschweig#18Win: 0.1%Promo: 0.6%Playoff: 0.7%Releg: 35.4% | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 35% |
WinPromoPlayoffReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Osnabrück#11Winner: 1.7%Promotion: 4.8%Playoff: 4.3%Relegation: 8.0%5:00 PMDynamo Dresden#14Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 1.8%Playoff: 1.9%Relegation: 18.5%
5:00 PMDynamo Dresden#14Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 1.8%Playoff: 1.9%Relegation: 18.5%27%
47%
Magdeburg#5Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 12.6%Playoff: 8.9%Relegation: 2.5%5:00 PMHannover 96#10Winner: 1.7%Promotion: 4.9%Playoff: 4.3%Relegation: 7.7%
5:00 PMHannover 96#10Winner: 1.7%Promotion: 4.9%Playoff: 4.3%Relegation: 7.7%69%
12%
Bochum#9Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 5.1%Playoff: 4.4%Relegation: 7.5%5:00 PMBielefeld#13Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 2.7%Playoff: 2.7%Relegation: 13.1%
5:00 PMBielefeld#13Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 2.7%Playoff: 2.7%Relegation: 13.1%16%
61%
Braunschweig#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.6%Playoff: 0.7%Relegation: 35.4%5:00 PMHolstein Kiel#15Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.2%Playoff: 1.4%Relegation: 22.8%
5:00 PMHolstein Kiel#15Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.2%Playoff: 1.4%Relegation: 22.8%9%
75%
Hertha BSC#1Winner: 39.2%Promotion: 59.5%Playoff: 12.3%Relegation: 0.1%5:00 PMGreuther Fürth#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 3.6%Playoff: 3.4%Relegation: 10.4%
5:00 PMGreuther Fürth#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 3.6%Playoff: 3.4%Relegation: 10.4%94%
2%
Darmstadt 98#16Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Relegation: 25.2%5:00 PMCottbus#7Winner: 2.6%Promotion: 7.2%Playoff: 5.8%Relegation: 5.2%
5:00 PMCottbus#7Winner: 2.6%Promotion: 7.2%Playoff: 5.8%Relegation: 5.2%43%
31%
FC Heidenheim#6Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 12.0%Playoff: 8.4%Relegation: 2.6%5:00 PMKaiserslautern#4Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 15.6%Playoff: 10.2%Relegation: 1.7%
5:00 PMKaiserslautern#4Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 15.6%Playoff: 10.2%Relegation: 1.7%50%
26%
St. Pauli#8Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 5.1%Playoff: 4.5%Relegation: 7.4%5:00 PMKarlsruher SC#17Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 0.8%Playoff: 1.0%Relegation: 30.1%
5:00 PMKarlsruher SC#17Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 0.8%Playoff: 1.0%Relegation: 30.1%51%
26%
Nürnberg#2Winner: 24.8%Promotion: 44.9%Playoff: 13.9%Relegation: 0.2%5:00 PMVfL Wolfsburg#3Winner: 6.8%Promotion: 16.4%Playoff: 10.5%Relegation: 1.8%
5:00 PMVfL Wolfsburg#3Winner: 6.8%Promotion: 16.4%Playoff: 10.5%Relegation: 1.8%81%
6%
After Round 6: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Karlsruher SC's Releg probability dropped from 52.4% to 30.1% (-22.3%).
- ↑Dynamo Dresden's Releg probability climbed from 10% to 18.5% (+8.5%).
- ↓Hertha BSC's Promo probability dropped from 66.2% to 59.5% (-6.7%).
- ↑Holstein Kiel's Releg probability climbed from 18% to 22.8% (+4.8%).
- ↓Greuther Fürth's Releg probability dropped from 14.4% to 10.4% (-4%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Playoff:
2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the 2. Bundesliga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Hertha BSC currently have the highest title probability at 39%. With 28 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the 2. Bundesliga 26/27?
- Braunschweig currently faces the highest relegation risk at 35%, followed by Karlsruher SC at 30%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate 2. Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the 2. Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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