2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 5 of 34
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC#1Win: 32.3%Promo: 50.6%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.2% | 32.3% |
| 2 |  Nürnberg#2Win: 21.3%Promo: 37.4%Playoff: 12.6%Releg: 0.6% | 21.3% |
| 3 |  Magdeburg#3Win: 7.2%Promo: 16.3%Playoff: 9.1%Releg: 2.9% | 7.2% |
| 4 |  FC Heidenheim#4Win: 7.0%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 8.8%Releg: 3.0% | 7.0% |
| 5 |  VfL Wolfsburg#5Win: 5.5%Promo: 12.7%Playoff: 7.7%Releg: 4.2% | 5.5% |
| 6 |  Kaiserslautern#6Win: 5.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 7.4%Releg: 4.3% | 5.1% |
| 7 |  Cottbus#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 6.3%Releg: 5.8% | 4.1% |
| 8 |  Bochum#8Win: 3.7%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 6.1%Releg: 6.0% | 3.7% |
| 9 |  St. Pauli#9Win: 2.7%Promo: 6.9%Playoff: 5.0%Releg: 8.0% | 2.7% |
| 10 |  Osnabrück#10Win: 2.6%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 8.7% | 2.6% |
| 11 |  Greuther Fürth#11Win: 2.0%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 3.9%Releg: 11.1% | 2.0% |
| 12 |  Hannover 96#13Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.5%Playoff: 3.0%Releg: 14.9% | 1.4% |
| 13 |  Bielefeld#12Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.7%Playoff: 3.1%Releg: 14.1% | 1.3% |
| 14 |  Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 2.9%Releg: 15.8% | 1.3% |
| 15 |  Darmstadt 98#15Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.3%Releg: 19.6% | 0.9% |
| 16 |  Holstein Kiel#16Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Releg: 24.0% | 0.6% |
| 17 |  Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.6%Releg: 25.9% | 0.6% |
| 18 |  Braunschweig#18Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 31.1% | 0.4% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 32.3%Promo: 50.6%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.2% | 50.6% |
| 2 | Nürnberg#2Win: 21.3%Promo: 37.4%Playoff: 12.6%Releg: 0.6% | 37.4% |
| 3 | Magdeburg#3Win: 7.2%Promo: 16.3%Playoff: 9.1%Releg: 2.9% | 16.3% |
| 4 | FC Heidenheim#4Win: 7.0%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 8.8%Releg: 3.0% | 15.6% |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg#5Win: 5.5%Promo: 12.7%Playoff: 7.7%Releg: 4.2% | 12.7% |
| 6 | Kaiserslautern#6Win: 5.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 7.4%Releg: 4.3% | 12.0% |
| 7 | Cottbus#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 6.3%Releg: 5.8% | 9.7% |
| 8 | Bochum#8Win: 3.7%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 6.1%Releg: 6.0% | 9.1% |
| 9 | St. Pauli#9Win: 2.7%Promo: 6.9%Playoff: 5.0%Releg: 8.0% | 6.9% |
| 10 | Osnabrück#10Win: 2.6%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 8.7% | 6.4% |
| 11 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 2.0%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 3.9%Releg: 11.1% | 5.2% |
| 12 | Bielefeld#12Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.7%Playoff: 3.1%Releg: 14.1% | 3.7% |
| 13 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 2.9%Releg: 15.8% | 3.6% |
| 14 | Hannover 96#13Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.5%Playoff: 3.0%Releg: 14.9% | 3.5% |
| 15 | Darmstadt 98#15Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.3%Releg: 19.6% | 2.5% |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel#16Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Releg: 24.0% | 1.8% |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.6%Releg: 25.9% | 1.8% |
| 18 | Braunschweig#18Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 31.1% | 1.2% |
Chances of participation in the playoff phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nürnberg#2Win: 21.3%Promo: 37.4%Playoff: 12.6%Releg: 0.6% | 12.6% |
| 2 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 32.3%Promo: 50.6%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.2% | 12.3% |
| 3 | Magdeburg#3Win: 7.2%Promo: 16.3%Playoff: 9.1%Releg: 2.9% | 9.1% |
| 4 | FC Heidenheim#4Win: 7.0%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 8.8%Releg: 3.0% | 8.8% |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg#5Win: 5.5%Promo: 12.7%Playoff: 7.7%Releg: 4.2% | 7.7% |
| 6 | Kaiserslautern#6Win: 5.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 7.4%Releg: 4.3% | 7.4% |
| 7 | Cottbus#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 6.3%Releg: 5.8% | 6.3% |
| 8 | Bochum#8Win: 3.7%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 6.1%Releg: 6.0% | 6.1% |
| 9 | St. Pauli#9Win: 2.7%Promo: 6.9%Playoff: 5.0%Releg: 8.0% | 5.0% |
| 10 | Osnabrück#10Win: 2.6%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 8.7% | 4.8% |
| 11 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 2.0%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 3.9%Releg: 11.1% | 3.9% |
| 12 | Bielefeld#12Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.7%Playoff: 3.1%Releg: 14.1% | 3.1% |
| 13 | Hannover 96#13Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.5%Playoff: 3.0%Releg: 14.9% | 3.0% |
| 14 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 2.9%Releg: 15.8% | 2.9% |
| 15 | Darmstadt 98#15Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.3%Releg: 19.6% | 2.3% |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel#16Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Releg: 24.0% | 1.7% |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.6%Releg: 25.9% | 1.6% |
| 18 | Braunschweig#18Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 31.1% | 1.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braunschweig#18Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 31.1% | 31.1% |
| 2 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.6%Releg: 25.9% | 25.9% |
| 3 | Holstein Kiel#16Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Releg: 24.0% | 24.0% |
| 4 | Darmstadt 98#15Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.3%Releg: 19.6% | 19.6% |
| 5 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 2.9%Releg: 15.8% | 15.8% |
| 6 | Hannover 96#13Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.5%Playoff: 3.0%Releg: 14.9% | 14.9% |
| 7 | Bielefeld#12Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.7%Playoff: 3.1%Releg: 14.1% | 14.1% |
| 8 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 2.0%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 3.9%Releg: 11.1% | 11.1% |
| 9 | Osnabrück#10Win: 2.6%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 8.7% | 8.7% |
| 10 | St. Pauli#9Win: 2.7%Promo: 6.9%Playoff: 5.0%Releg: 8.0% | 8.0% |
| 11 | Bochum#8Win: 3.7%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 6.1%Releg: 6.0% | 6.0% |
| 12 | Cottbus#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 6.3%Releg: 5.8% | 5.8% |
| 13 | Kaiserslautern#6Win: 5.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 7.4%Releg: 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 14 | VfL Wolfsburg#5Win: 5.5%Promo: 12.7%Playoff: 7.7%Releg: 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 15 | FC Heidenheim#4Win: 7.0%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 8.8%Releg: 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 16 | Magdeburg#3Win: 7.2%Promo: 16.3%Playoff: 9.1%Releg: 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 17 | Nürnberg#2Win: 21.3%Promo: 37.4%Playoff: 12.6%Releg: 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 18 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 32.3%Promo: 50.6%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.2% | 0.2% |
Round 5 of 34
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | PO | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 32.3%Promo: 50.6%Playoff: 12.3%Releg: 0.2% | 5 | 15 | 32% | 51% | 12% | 0% |
2 | Nürnberg#2Win: 21.3%Promo: 37.4%Playoff: 12.6%Releg: 0.6% | 5 | 13 | 21% | 37% | 13% | 1% |
3↑2 | Magdeburg#3Win: 7.2%Promo: 16.3%Playoff: 9.1%Releg: 2.9% | 4 | 9 | 7% | 16% | 9% | 3% |
4↑2 | FC Heidenheim#4Win: 7.0%Promo: 15.6%Playoff: 8.8%Releg: 3.0% | 4 | 9 | 7% | 16% | 9% | 3% |
5↓2 | VfL Wolfsburg#5Win: 5.5%Promo: 12.7%Playoff: 7.7%Releg: 4.2% | 5 | 8 | 6% | 13% | 8% | 4% |
6↓2 | Kaiserslautern#6Win: 5.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 7.4%Releg: 4.3% | 5 | 8 | 5% | 12% | 7% | 4% |
7↑3 | Energie Cottbus#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 6.3%Releg: 5.8% | 5 | 7 | 4% | 10% | 6% | 6% |
8 | Bochum#8Win: 3.7%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 6.1%Releg: 6.0% | 5 | 7 | 4% | 9% | 6% | 6% |
9↑4 | St. Pauli#9Win: 2.7%Promo: 6.9%Playoff: 5.0%Releg: 8.0% | 5 | 6 | 3% | 7% | 5% | 8% |
10↓3 | Osnabrück#10Win: 2.6%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 8.7% | 4 | 6 | 3% | 6% | 5% | 9% |
11 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 2.0%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 3.9%Releg: 11.1% | 5 | 5 | 2% | 5% | 4% | 11% |
12↓3 | Arminia Bielefeld#12Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.7%Playoff: 3.1%Releg: 14.1% | 4 | 4 | 1% | 4% | 3% | 14% |
13↓1 | Hannover 96#13Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.5%Playoff: 3.0%Releg: 14.9% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 4% | 3% | 15% |
14 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.6%Playoff: 2.9%Releg: 15.8% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 4% | 3% | 16% |
15↑3 | Darmstadt 98#15Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.3%Releg: 19.6% | 4 | 3 | 1% | 3% | 2% | 20% |
16↓1 | Holstein Kiel#16Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Releg: 24.0% | 4 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 24% |
17↓1 | Karlsruher SC#17Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.8%Playoff: 1.6%Releg: 25.9% | 4 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 26% |
18↓1 | Eintracht Braunschweig#18Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Releg: 31.1% | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 31% |
WinPromoPlayoffReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Greuther Fürth#11Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 5.2%Playoff: 3.9%Relegation: 11.1%4:30 PMMagdeburg#3Winner: 7.2%Promotion: 16.3%Playoff: 9.1%Relegation: 2.9%
4:30 PMMagdeburg#3Winner: 7.2%Promotion: 16.3%Playoff: 9.1%Relegation: 2.9%99%
0%
VfL Wolfsburg#5Winner: 5.5%Promotion: 12.7%Playoff: 7.7%Relegation: 4.2%4:30 PMDarmstadt 98#15Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 2.5%Playoff: 2.3%Relegation: 19.6%
4:30 PMDarmstadt 98#15Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 2.5%Playoff: 2.3%Relegation: 19.6%6%
83%
Kaiserslautern#6Winner: 5.1%Promotion: 12.0%Playoff: 7.4%Relegation: 4.3%11:00 AMBraunschweig#18Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Relegation: 31.1%
11:00 AMBraunschweig#18Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Relegation: 31.1%86%
4%
Karlsruher SC#17Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 1.8%Playoff: 1.6%Relegation: 25.9%11:00 AMNürnberg#2Winner: 21.3%Promotion: 37.4%Playoff: 12.6%Relegation: 0.6%
11:00 AMNürnberg#2Winner: 21.3%Promotion: 37.4%Playoff: 12.6%Relegation: 0.6%8%
80%
Holstein Kiel#16Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Relegation: 24.0%11:00 AMOsnabrück#10Winner: 2.6%Promotion: 6.4%Playoff: 4.8%Relegation: 8.7%
11:00 AMOsnabrück#10Winner: 2.6%Promotion: 6.4%Playoff: 4.8%Relegation: 8.7%99%
0%
Dynamo Dresden#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 3.6%Playoff: 2.9%Relegation: 15.8%6:30 PMHertha BSC#1Winner: 32.3%Promotion: 50.6%Playoff: 12.3%Relegation: 0.2%
6:30 PMHertha BSC#1Winner: 32.3%Promotion: 50.6%Playoff: 12.3%Relegation: 0.2%3%
90%
Cottbus#7Winner: 4.1%Promotion: 9.7%Playoff: 6.3%Relegation: 5.8%11:30 AMSt. Pauli#9Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 6.9%Playoff: 5.0%Relegation: 8.0%
11:30 AMSt. Pauli#9Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 6.9%Playoff: 5.0%Relegation: 8.0%0%
98%
Hannover 96#13Winner: 1.4%Promotion: 3.5%Playoff: 3.0%Relegation: 14.9%11:30 AMBochum#8Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 9.1%Playoff: 6.1%Relegation: 6.0%
11:30 AMBochum#8Winner: 3.7%Promotion: 9.1%Playoff: 6.1%Relegation: 6.0%81%
7%
Bielefeld#12Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 3.7%Playoff: 3.1%Relegation: 14.1%11:30 AMFC Heidenheim#4Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 15.6%Playoff: 8.8%Relegation: 3.0%
11:30 AMFC Heidenheim#4Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 15.6%Playoff: 8.8%Relegation: 3.0%7%
81%
Braunschweig#18Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.2%Playoff: 1.3%Relegation: 31.1%5:00 PMHolstein Kiel#16Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Relegation: 24.0%
5:00 PMHolstein Kiel#16Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 1.8%Playoff: 1.7%Relegation: 24.0%10%
74%
After Round 5: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Kaiserslautern's Promo probability dropped from 23.4% to 12% (-11.4%).
- ↓Hertha BSC's Promo probability dropped from 59.6% to 50.6% (-9%).
- ↓Darmstadt 98's Releg probability dropped from 27.3% to 19.6% (-7.7%).
- ↑VfL Wolfsburg's Promo probability climbed from 6.5% to 12.7% (+6.2%).
- ↑Holstein Kiel's Releg probability climbed from 17.8% to 24% (+6.2%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Playoff:
2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the 2. Bundesliga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Hertha BSC currently have the highest title probability at 32%. With 29 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the 2. Bundesliga 26/27?
- Braunschweig currently faces the highest relegation risk at 31%, followed by Karlsruher SC at 26%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate 2. Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the 2. Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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