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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-05-29·Round 11

Avaí vs Criciúma Could Change the Promotion Race (2% Swing)

By Alberto Ibarra · · Match Report

Avaí vs Criciúma Could Change the Promotion Race (2% Swing)

Juventude's victory over América-MG with a 3-0 scoreline on May 29 has significantly altered their championship probabilities. Prior to the match, Juventude had a 13.8% chance of promotion and a 17.0% chance of relegation. The win has now increased their promotion probability to 19.5% and reduced relegation chances to 10.6%.

For América-MG, the defeat was costly. Their already slim chance of winning the league remains at 0.1%, but their relegation probability has increased from 71.0% to 77.4%. With this result, América-MG remains at the bottom of the table with just 3 points from 11 matches, marking a challenging road ahead for them.

Juventude's win propelled them from 11th to 8th place in the standings, a notable rise. Their probability of winning the league, although still modest, increased from 2.4% to 3.8%. This upward movement indicates that Juventude is on an encouraging trajectory as the season progresses.

Looking ahead, Juventude will aim to maintain their momentum in the coming rounds to further strengthen their position. América-MG, on the other hand, faces a critical need to reverse their fortunes to escape the threat of relegation.

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Avaí vs Criciúma Could Change the Promotion Race (2% Swing) — Round 11 Match Report, Brasileiro 2026, Serie B | CupChances