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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-06-11·Round 13

Botafogo-SP vs Operário-PR Could Change the Promotion Race (2% Swing)

By Alberto Ibarra · · Match Preview

Botafogo-SP vs Operário-PR Could Change the Promotion Race (2% Swing)

Round 13 of the championship presents critical matchups that could significantly alter the landscape for promotion and relegation. Botafogo-SP versus Operário-PR is a pivotal fixture with a combined impact of 1.8%. A win for Botafogo-SP would swing their relegation probability from 43.9% to a more favorable figure while boosting their promotion chances from 2.1%. Conversely, an Operário-PR victory would enhance their promotion probability from 23.5% to a higher value. The potential for a mathematical shift in championship probabilities makes this clash essential viewing.

Athletic Club versus Goiás is another encounter with a substantial impact of 1.8%. The probabilities for Athletic Club and Goiás are finely balanced, with a win for either side significantly altering their prospects. Athletic Club's promotion probability stands at 18.8% and a victory would provide a notable increase. Similarly, Goiás could see their promotion chances rise from 16.2% with a win. This fixture holds the potential for a decisive swing in championship probabilities.

Criciúma faces Ceará in a match with an equivalent impact of 1.8%. Criciúma's current promotion probability of 28.5% could be bolstered by a win, while Ceará, with a lower promotion probability of 12.3%, also seeks a crucial victory to enhance their standing. The match's outcome will determine significant shifts in both teams' championship aspirations, highlighting its importance in this round.

As these matches unfold, each result will bring about critical changes in promotion and relegation probabilities. Fans should watch closely as the outcomes could shape the trajectory of the championship.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

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