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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-04-19

Fortaleza Surge to 33% Promotion Probability

· Round-up

Fortaleza Surge to 33% Promotion Probability

In the latest round of the Brasileiro Serie B, Novorizontino and Fortaleza made significant strides in their quest for promotion. Novorizontino's 2-1 victory over Athletic Club not only propelled them from 13th to 4th place in the standings but also increased their promotion probability by 6.7%, now standing at 24.4%. This win has also lowered their relegation risk by 6.2%, now at a safer 14.0%.

Fortaleza's dramatic 3-2 win over Criciúma has catapulted them up the table to 2nd place and bolstered their promotion chances by 7.9%, now at a promising 33.1%. Criciúma, on the other hand, experienced a setback, dropping from 5th to 12th place and seeing their promotion probability decrease by 5.1% to 20.4%. Their defeat has also decreased their winner probability, now at 4.8%.

Meanwhile, Goiás suffered a disappointing 2-0 home loss to Cuiabá, resulting in a notable drop from 4th to 11th place. This defeat has severely impacted their promotion hopes, with a 5.7% drop in probability, now at 20.1%. Additionally, their relegation probability has increased by 4.3%, now at 17.5%.

Looking ahead, the upcoming rounds will be critical, especially for teams like Novorizontino and Fortaleza, who are looking to capitalize on their current momentum, while clubs like Goiás and Criciúma will be eager to bounce back and regain their footing in the promotion race.

Live probability analysis

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