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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-05-23·Round 10

Promotion and Relegation Shifts in Brasileiro Serie B

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Promotion and Relegation Shifts in Brasileiro Serie B

Novorizontino's 2-1 victory over Ceará has altered their championship trajectory, raising their probability of winning the title from 4.8% to 6.5%. This win also boosted their promotion chances by 6.1%, now standing at 27.5%, while reducing their relegation probability from 13.2% to 8.1%. Conversely, Ceará's prospects have dimmed, with their promotion probability dropping to 14.9%, and their relegation likelihood increasing to 17.5%.

Fortaleza's decisive 3-0 win against Londrina has significantly improved their promotion outlook by 8.3%, now at 39.0%. Their relegation chances have also been reduced from 7.9% to 4.4%. Londrina, on the other hand, saw their promotion hopes diminish to 4.3%, while their risk of relegation increased to 42.4%, marking a 7.1% rise.

Sport's narrow 1-0 victory over Juventude has solidified their position, boosting their promotion probability by 8.5% to 44.4% and reducing their relegation risk to 3.2%. Juventude's chances of promotion fell to 14.8%, while their relegation probability increased by 4.2% to 17.7%.

Looking ahead, the upcoming matches will be critical for teams like Londrina and Ceará as they attempt to reverse their recent downward trends. Meanwhile, Novorizontino, Fortaleza, and Sport will aim to build on their positive momentum in the coming rounds.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis