Novorizontino#4 · 21 pts's recent 4-0 victory over Goiás#12 · 18 pts has significantly impacted the promotion race in Serie B. Their probability of being promoted increased from 21.0% to 28.9%, reflecting a 7.9% swing. Additionally, their chances of winning the championship rose from 3.9% to 6.3%, while their relegation probability decreased from 7.6% to 4.2%. This strong performance has also propelled them from ninth to fifth in the standings.
Conversely, Goiás#12 · 18 pts suffered a considerable setback following this defeat. Their promotion probability decreased from 21.9% to 16.2%, a 5.7% decline, while their relegation risk increased from 7.2% to 10.0%. This has led to a drop in the rankings, moving from eighth to tenth place.
Ceará's 2-1 win over Avaí has improved their promotion prospects, increasing from 8.2% to 12.3%. Their relegation probability decreased from 20.7% to 13.4%, a favorable shift. This victory also allowed Ceará to climb from 14th to 12th in the standings. Meanwhile, Avaí's relegation risk has increased significantly, rising from 36.7% to 44.2%.
Sport#3 · 24 pts's 1-1 draw with Athletic Club#10 · 19 pts resulted in a minor decrease in their promotion chances, now at 46.6% down from 49.1%. Athletic Club#10 · 19 pts's promotion probability also fell slightly, from 20.8% to 18.8%. Sport#3 · 24 pts remains in third place, while Athletic Club#10 · 19 pts holds the ninth position.
Looking ahead, the next rounds will be crucial for Novorizontino#4 · 21 pts to maintain their positive trajectory and for Goiás#12 · 18 pts to recover from their recent setback. Ceará's upward movement will also be worth monitoring as they aim to further distance themselves from relegation danger.