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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-07-18·Round 18

Criciúma Climbs to the Top, Juventude's Promotion Hopes Soar

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

Criciúma Climbs to the Top, Juventude's Promotion Hopes Soar

Criciúma's impressive 2-0 victory over Vila Nova has propelled them to the top of the standings, giving their promotion probabilities a significant boost. Now sitting with a 75.8% chance of promotion and a 33.9% chance of winning the championship, Criciúma is proving to be a formidable force in Serie B. Their recent form has seen a remarkable 17.3% increase in their chances of winning the league over the last four rounds, highlighting their steady ascent.

Juventude also made significant strides in the promotion race. Although they didn't play this round, their consistent performance in previous matches has resulted in a notable 22.8% increase over the last three rounds, now sitting at a promising 50.7% chance of promotion. The race for the top spots is heating up, with Juventude firmly placing themselves in contention for a move to the top tier.

In other matches, Goiás secured a 2-1 win against Ponte Preta, reducing their relegation risk to 2.2% and enhancing their promotion hopes to 23.8%. Meanwhile, Vila Nova's loss to Criciúma has seen their promotion probability drop by 9.4%, now at 43.7%. Despite their setback, they remain in the race but will need to bounce back quickly to maintain their position.

As the league approaches the halfway mark, the upcoming matches will be crucial for teams like Fortaleza, whose promotion chances have improved to 43.1%, and Novorizontino, who are seeing a dip in their promotion and winner probabilities. The battle for promotion is intensifying, with each team eager to capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.

Live probability analysis

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