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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-09-19·Round 29

Juventude's Promotion Hopes Dim After Defeat

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Juventude's Promotion Hopes Dim After Defeat

Juventude's probability of promotion has decreased significantly from 75.6% to 65.6% following their 2-1 defeat to Sport. This loss also impacted their chances of winning the league, which fell from 27.0% to 18.2%. The result saw Juventude drop from first to third in the standings, a significant shift as they vie for promotion with only nine matches remaining.

Sport's victory over Juventude provided a notable boost to their promotion prospects, rising from 5.5% to 10.6%. This result also helped solidify their position in the standings, where they currently sit in eighth place with 44 points. Despite starting with just a 0.4% chance of relegation, Sport's triumph further distances them from the danger zone.

In the lower half of the table, Botafogo-SP's 1-1 draw against Athletic Club has heightened their relegation concerns, increasing their relegation probability from 44.2% to 47.9%. This marks a substantial increase over the past four rounds, as their relegation probability has climbed by 20.7%. Athletic Club remains in 11th place, with their immediate relegation risk stable at 1.0%.

As the Brasileiro Serie B approaches its final rounds, the upcoming matches will be crucial for teams like Juventude and Sport, who are battling for promotion, while Botafogo-SP will need to navigate carefully to avoid the drop.

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