Bundesliga 25/26·2026-03-01

Bundesliga Shake-Up: Freiburg and Hamburg Fall from Grace

· Round-up

The latest Bundesliga championship probabilities have seen significant shifts, with SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV officially dropping out of contention for European competition. Freiburg's chances of qualifying for the Champions League have plummeted from 1.5% to just 0.3%, effectively ending their hopes for a top-four finish. Meanwhile, Hamburger SV's odds for the Conference League have dipped from 1.6% to 0.6%, marking a disappointing turn for the historic club.

Borussia Dortmund is also facing challenges, with their title aspirations fading dramatically. Once sitting at a respectable 8.2%, their chances of lifting the trophy have now dwindled to a mere 1.9%. In contrast, VfL Wolfsburg has seen a remarkable rise in their relegation probabilities, jumping by over 10% to 44.7%. This surge has been matched by VfB Stuttgart, who have improved their Champions League odds to 63.3%.

As the season progresses, all eyes will be on Bayern Munich, who are the clear favorites with a staggering 97.9% chance of becoming champions. Fans should keep an eye on Hoffenheim as well; despite a recent drop in their Champions League hopes, they have increased their odds for Europa League qualification to 20%. The next rounds promise to bring more twists and turns as teams battle for their respective goals.