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Serie A 25/26·2026-04-12

Inter Surge to 99% Title Probability

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Inter Surge to 99% Title Probability

Inter Milan has taken a significant step towards securing the Serie A championship after a thrilling 4-3 victory over Como. With this win, Inter's chances of claiming the title have surged to an impressive 98.6%, solidifying their position at the top of the standings with 75 points. Meanwhile, Napoli's 1-1 draw with Parma has seen their title hopes take a hit, as their probability of winning the league has plummeted from 5.3% to just 1.3%.

In other developments, Como's dreams of securing a Champions League spot suffered a blow despite their spirited performance against Inter. Their probability of qualifying has dipped by 10.7%, now standing at 67%. However, they still hold a strong position in the league at fifth place with 58 points, trailing Juventus by only two points for the fourth spot. Meanwhile, Lecce's relegation fears have intensified after a 2-0 loss to Bologna, with their relegation probability rising to 52.9%.

On a more positive note, Genoa has effectively removed themselves from the relegation conversation with their 2-1 triumph over Sassuolo, reducing their relegation probability to a mere 0.1%. Additionally, Roma has seen a boost in their Champions League qualification chances, now at 42.9%, following favorable results this round.

With only six rounds remaining, the battle for European qualification spots remains fierce, while Lecce and Cremonese face an uphill struggle to avoid the drop. Keep an eye on the next round of matches, which could be pivotal for teams fighting for European dreams or battling to stave off relegation.

Live probability analysis

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