Skip to main content
Serie B 25/26·2026-05-08

Frosinone Surge to 100% Promotion Probability

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Frosinone Surge to 100% Promotion Probability

Venezia has secured the Serie B title with a decisive increase in championship probability from 77.8% to 100% following their 2-0 victory over Palermo. This win sealed their top position on the table with 82 points, just one point ahead of Frosinone, who had a 22.2% chance of winning but now are out of the race after finishing second.

Avellino achieved a significant probability swing in securing a playoff spot, moving from 16.5% to 100% after their narrow 1-0 win against Modena. Bari also solidified their place in the playout with a 25.9% increase to 100%, despite earlier relegation concerns, following their 3-2 victory over Catanzaro.

Spezia and Pescara's relegation probabilities have gone from 88.9% to 100% after both teams failed to improve their standings, with Pescara drawing 1-1 against Spezia. Similarly, Reggiana's 1-0 win over Sampdoria was not enough to avoid relegation, as their probability was already high at 96.3% and they are now mathematically eliminated from the playout.

The focus now shifts to the playoffs and playouts, where Avellino and Bari's performances will be scrutinized closely to see if they can capitalize on their secured positions.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis