Skip to main content
Premier League 25/26·2026-05-17·Round 37

Aston Villa Soars Toward Champions League as Brighton's European Hopes Vanish

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

Aston Villa Soars Toward Champions League as Brighton's European Hopes Vanish

In a weekend of high stakes, Aston Villa made a significant leap in the race for the Champions League, now sitting at an impressive 88.9% chance of qualification. This comes after a decisive shift in probabilities, benefiting from Liverpool's setback. Despite Liverpool's 3-1 victory over Everton, their Champions League hopes have dwindled to a slim 11.1%, while their Europa League prospects have risen to 81.4%.

For Brighton, the dream of European competition has slipped away entirely. A 1-0 defeat to Leeds United has erased their faint 1.1% chance of reaching the Europa League. Meanwhile, Tottenham has managed to ease their relegation fears, dropping their likelihood from 17.3% to a mere 3.7%, a relief for Spurs fans as they prepare for their upcoming fixtures.

Elsewhere, Manchester City's title chase remains alive, with their odds of winning the Premier League increasing to 28.5%. Arsenal still holds the upper hand at 71.5%, but the competition remains fierce as the season's final matchday approaches. In the relegation zone, West Ham faces a grim 96.3% probability of dropping to the Championship after a 3-1 defeat to Newcastle.

With just one round left, all eyes will be on the thrilling battle at the top and bottom of the table. Arsenal and Manchester City are poised for a nail-biting finish for the title, while Aston Villa will aim to secure their Champions League spot. As the last matchday approaches, the drama is far from over, and fans can expect emotions to run high in the Premier League's thrilling conclusion.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis