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Championship 25/26·2026-04-25

Middlesbrough Surge to 7% Promotion Probability

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Middlesbrough Surge to 7% Promotion Probability

As the Championship season nears its conclusion, Round 45 brought significant shifts in playoff and promotion probabilities, with Ipswich Town's promotion chances taking a slight dip following their 0-0 draw against West Bromwich Albion. Despite this setback, Ipswich remains a strong contender for automatic promotion, now with a 72.8% likelihood. Meanwhile, the playoff race has intensified, particularly for Derby County and Middlesbrough, who both enjoyed pivotal victories.

Middlesbrough's commanding 5-1 win over Watford has bolstered their promotion prospects, climbing from 1.6% to 7.4%. Although their playoff probability dropped to 92.6%, the team's position remains robust, keeping them firmly in contention. Derby County's thrilling 3-2 victory over Queens Park Rangers has seen their playoff chances surge from 2.5% to 11.1%, injecting new life into their campaign at a critical moment.

Elsewhere, Hull City's 2-1 defeat to Charlton Athletic dealt a significant blow to their playoff aspirations, plummeting by 22.8% to 17.3%. In contrast, Wrexham's playoff hopes have soared to 71.6%, highlighting their recent upward trajectory in the standings. Millwall, despite a dip in their promotion chances over the past three rounds, remains a formidable playoff contender, with their probability now at 83.6%.

As the final round approaches, all eyes will be on Ipswich Town and Middlesbrough to see if they can secure promotion. The playoff race remains wide open, with Derby County and Wrexham poised to make a last-minute push. The closing fixtures promise to deliver thrilling drama as teams vie for the coveted spots in the Championship hierarchy.

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