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FIFA World Cup 2026·2026-06-15·Round 15

**New Zealand Soars as Iran's Dreams Crumble in World Cup Drama**

By Roberto Ottaviani · · Round-up

In a day of World Cup action filled with suspense and shifting fortunes, New Zealand emerged as the unexpected hero, while Iran faced a crushing blow to their aspirations. The Kiwis, with a dazzling 2-1 triumph over Iran, catapulted themselves into the Quarterfinals race, now boasting a thrilling 5.1% chance, up from 2.7%. This victory also slashed their Group Stage Exit probability by a vertiginous 16.3%, now sitting at a mere 16.7%. New Zealand's knockout prospects have soared to an impressive 83.3%, showcasing their newfound resilience and ambition on the global stage.

For Iran, however, the outcome was nothing short of catastrophic. Their hopes of advancing to the Round of 16 were effectively extinguished, dwindling from a slim 2.1% to an almost nonexistent 0.7%. The defeat has cemented their Group Stage Exit probability at a daunting 93.9%. As the Iranian fans grapple with this brutal reality, New Zealand's supporters celebrate the promise of further glory.

Elsewhere, Belgium and Egypt battled to a 1-1 draw, a result that leaves Belgium teetering on the edge of danger. Their chances of an early exit have risen sharply to 8.4%, a testament to their precarious position. Conversely, Egypt's knockout hopes have been invigorated, climbing to a robust 91.3% with a leap into the Semifinals race at 5.9%.

As the drama unfolds, New Zealand's triumph and Iran’s fall signal an electrifying start to the tournament's group stage. Fans and pundits alike will be eagerly watching the next rounds to see if New Zealand can continue their ascendancy and whether any other dark horses will emerge from the shadows.

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