Skip to main content
FIFA World Cup 2026·2026-06-21·Round 37

Japan and Spain Secure Knockout Stage, Tunisia Eliminated

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Japan's emphatic 4-0 victory over Tunisia has significantly altered their championship probabilities. Japan's chance of advancing to the Knockout Stage has skyrocketed from 73.5% to 100%, eliminating any possibility of a Group Stage Exit, which has dropped from 26.5% to 0%. The win also boosts Japan's probability of reaching the Finals from 3.1% to 6.1%, indicating a strong upward trend in their tournament prospects.

Spain has also confirmed their advancement to the Knockout Stage following their 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia. Their chances of a Group Stage Exit have decreased from 14.2% to 0%, while their potential to reach the Finals has increased from 3.9% to 5.6%. This solidifies their standing as a formidable contender in the tournament.

Conversely, Tunisia's defeat has led to their mathematical elimination from advancing past the Group Stage. Their probability of a Knockout Stage appearance has plummeted from 41.3% to 0%, and they are now guaranteed a Group Stage Exit, rising from 58.7% to 100%. This marks a decisive setback for the team.

Looking ahead, Japan and Spain will aim to capitalize on their momentum in the upcoming rounds, while Tunisia will seek to salvage pride in their remaining matches. The focus now shifts to teams like Cape Verde, whose Knockout Stage probability has increased from 33.5% to 53.8%, indicating potential surprises in the next phases of the competition.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis