Premier League 26/27 — Round 4 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 52.0%UEL: 7.4%Releg: 1.7% | 19.3% |
| 2 |  Man City#2Win: 18.9%UCL: 51.7%UEL: 7.5%Releg: 1.6% | 18.9% |
| 3 |  Hull City#3Win: 7.6%UCL: 29.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 5.9% | 7.6% |
| 4 |  Brighton#4Win: 6.5%UCL: 26.6%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.4% | 6.5% |
| 5 |  Chelsea#5Win: 5.4%UCL: 24.2%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 8.1% | 5.4% |
| 6 |  Newcastle#10Win: 5.0%UCL: 22.5%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 5.0% |
| 7 |  Leeds United#11Win: 4.8%UCL: 21.8%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 4.8% |
| 8 |  Brentford#6Win: 4.6%UCL: 21.5%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.1% | 4.6% |
| 9 |  Liverpool#7Win: 4.4%UCL: 21.1%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 4.4% |
| 10 |  Everton#8Win: 4.4%UCL: 20.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.2% | 4.4% |
| 11 |  Ipswich Town#9Win: 4.1%UCL: 19.4%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.2% | 4.1% |
| 12 |  Forest#12Win: 3.2%UCL: 16.3%UEL: 4.9%Releg: 13.5% | 3.2% |
| 13 |  Man United#13Win: 2.4%UCL: 13.2%UEL: 4.4%Releg: 16.6% | 2.4% |
| 14 |  Sunderland#14Win: 2.3%UCL: 12.9%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.2% | 2.3% |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace#16Win: 1.8%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.5%Releg: 21.5% | 1.8% |
| 16 |  Bournemouth#15Win: 1.7%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 1.7% |
| 17 |  Tottenham#17Win: 1.3%UCL: 8.0%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 26.3% | 1.3% |
| 18 |  Fulham#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.7%Releg: 30.2% | 0.9% |
| 19 |  Aston Villa#19Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.2%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 31.3% | 0.9% |
| 20 |  Coventry City#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 4.7%UEL: 2.0%Releg: 37.1% | 0.6% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 52.0%UEL: 7.4%Releg: 1.7% | 52.0% |
| 2 | Man City#2Win: 18.9%UCL: 51.7%UEL: 7.5%Releg: 1.6% | 51.7% |
| 3 | Hull City#3Win: 7.6%UCL: 29.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 5.9% | 29.9% |
| 4 | Brighton#4Win: 6.5%UCL: 26.6%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.4% | 26.6% |
| 5 | Chelsea#5Win: 5.4%UCL: 24.2%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 8.1% | 24.2% |
| 6 | Newcastle#10Win: 5.0%UCL: 22.5%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 22.5% |
| 7 | Leeds United#11Win: 4.8%UCL: 21.8%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 21.8% |
| 8 | Brentford#6Win: 4.6%UCL: 21.5%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.1% | 21.5% |
| 9 | Liverpool#7Win: 4.4%UCL: 21.1%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 21.1% |
| 10 | Everton#8Win: 4.4%UCL: 20.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.2% | 20.6% |
| 11 | Ipswich Town#9Win: 4.1%UCL: 19.4%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.2% | 19.4% |
| 12 | Forest#12Win: 3.2%UCL: 16.3%UEL: 4.9%Releg: 13.5% | 16.3% |
| 13 | Man United#13Win: 2.4%UCL: 13.2%UEL: 4.4%Releg: 16.6% | 13.2% |
| 14 | Sunderland#14Win: 2.3%UCL: 12.9%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.2% | 12.9% |
| 15 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.7%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 10.4% |
| 16 | Crystal Palace#16Win: 1.8%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.5%Releg: 21.5% | 10.4% |
| 17 | Tottenham#17Win: 1.3%UCL: 8.0%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 26.3% | 8.0% |
| 18 | Fulham#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.7%Releg: 30.2% | 6.4% |
| 19 | Aston Villa#19Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.2%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 31.3% | 6.2% |
| 20 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 4.7%UEL: 2.0%Releg: 37.1% | 4.7% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City#2Win: 18.9%UCL: 51.7%UEL: 7.5%Releg: 1.6% | 7.5% |
| 2 | Arsenal#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 52.0%UEL: 7.4%Releg: 1.7% | 7.4% |
| 3 | Hull City#3Win: 7.6%UCL: 29.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 5.9% | 6.8% |
| 4 | Brighton#4Win: 6.5%UCL: 26.6%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.4% | 6.4% |
| 5 | Chelsea#5Win: 5.4%UCL: 24.2%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 8.1% | 6.4% |
| 6 | Newcastle#10Win: 5.0%UCL: 22.5%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 5.9% |
| 7 | Brentford#6Win: 4.6%UCL: 21.5%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.1% | 5.8% |
| 8 | Everton#8Win: 4.4%UCL: 20.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.2% | 5.8% |
| 9 | Liverpool#7Win: 4.4%UCL: 21.1%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 5.7% |
| 10 | Leeds United#11Win: 4.8%UCL: 21.8%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 5.7% |
| 11 | Ipswich Town#9Win: 4.1%UCL: 19.4%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.2% | 5.5% |
| 12 | Forest#12Win: 3.2%UCL: 16.3%UEL: 4.9%Releg: 13.5% | 4.9% |
| 13 | Man United#13Win: 2.4%UCL: 13.2%UEL: 4.4%Releg: 16.6% | 4.4% |
| 14 | Sunderland#14Win: 2.3%UCL: 12.9%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.2% | 4.2% |
| 15 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.7%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 3.8% |
| 16 | Crystal Palace#16Win: 1.8%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.5%Releg: 21.5% | 3.5% |
| 17 | Tottenham#17Win: 1.3%UCL: 8.0%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 26.3% | 3.0% |
| 18 | Fulham#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.7%Releg: 30.2% | 2.7% |
| 19 | Aston Villa#19Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.2%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 31.3% | 2.5% |
| 20 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 4.7%UEL: 2.0%Releg: 37.1% | 2.0% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 4.7%UEL: 2.0%Releg: 37.1% | 37.1% |
| 2 | Aston Villa#19Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.2%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 31.3% | 31.3% |
| 3 | Fulham#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.7%Releg: 30.2% | 30.2% |
| 4 | Tottenham#17Win: 1.3%UCL: 8.0%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 26.3% | 26.3% |
| 5 | Crystal Palace#16Win: 1.8%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.5%Releg: 21.5% | 21.5% |
| 6 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.7%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 20.7% |
| 7 | Sunderland#14Win: 2.3%UCL: 12.9%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.2% | 17.2% |
| 8 | Man United#13Win: 2.4%UCL: 13.2%UEL: 4.4%Releg: 16.6% | 16.6% |
| 9 | Forest#12Win: 3.2%UCL: 16.3%UEL: 4.9%Releg: 13.5% | 13.5% |
| 10 | Ipswich Town#9Win: 4.1%UCL: 19.4%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.2% | 11.2% |
| 11 | Everton#8Win: 4.4%UCL: 20.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.2% | 10.2% |
| 12 | Brentford#6Win: 4.6%UCL: 21.5%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.1% | 10.1% |
| 13 | Liverpool#7Win: 4.4%UCL: 21.1%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 10.1% |
| 14 | Leeds United#11Win: 4.8%UCL: 21.8%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 9.8% |
| 15 | Newcastle#10Win: 5.0%UCL: 22.5%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 9.6% |
| 16 | Chelsea#5Win: 5.4%UCL: 24.2%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 8.1% | 8.1% |
| 17 | Brighton#4Win: 6.5%UCL: 26.6%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 18 | Hull City#3Win: 7.6%UCL: 29.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 5.9% | 5.9% |
| 19 | Arsenal#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 52.0%UEL: 7.4%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 20 | Man City#2Win: 18.9%UCL: 51.7%UEL: 7.5%Releg: 1.6% | 1.6% |
Round 4 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | Arsenal#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 52.0%UEL: 7.4%Releg: 1.7% | 4 | 12 | 19% | 52% | 7% | 2% |
2↓1 | Manchester City#2Win: 18.9%UCL: 51.7%UEL: 7.5%Releg: 1.6% | 4 | 12 | 19% | 52% | 8% | 2% |
3 | Hull City#3Win: 7.6%UCL: 29.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 5.9% | 4 | 8 | 8% | 30% | 7% | 6% |
4↑6 | Brighton#4Win: 6.5%UCL: 26.6%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.4% | 4 | 7 | 7% | 27% | 6% | 7% |
5↓1 | Chelsea#5Win: 5.4%UCL: 24.2%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 8.1% | 4 | 7 | 5% | 24% | 6% | 8% |
6↓1 | Brentford#6Win: 4.6%UCL: 21.5%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.1% | 4 | 6 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 10% |
7↓1 | Liverpool#7Win: 4.4%UCL: 21.1%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 4 | 6 | 4% | 21% | 6% | 10% |
8 | Everton#8Win: 4.4%UCL: 20.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 10.2% | 4 | 6 | 4% | 21% | 6% | 10% |
9↑5 | Ipswich Town#9Win: 4.1%UCL: 19.4%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.2% | 4 | 6 | 4% | 19% | 6% | 11% |
10↓3 | Newcastle#10Win: 5.0%UCL: 22.5%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 3 | 5 | 5% | 23% | 6% | 10% |
11↓2 | Leeds United#11Win: 4.8%UCL: 21.8%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 9.8% | 3 | 5 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 10% |
12↑4 | Nottingham Forest#12Win: 3.2%UCL: 16.3%UEL: 4.9%Releg: 13.5% | 4 | 5 | 3% | 16% | 5% | 14% |
13↓2 | Manchester United#13Win: 2.4%UCL: 13.2%UEL: 4.4%Releg: 16.6% | 4 | 4 | 2% | 13% | 4% | 17% |
14↓2 | Sunderland#14Win: 2.3%UCL: 12.9%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.2% | 4 | 4 | 2% | 13% | 4% | 17% |
15 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.7%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 4 | 3 | 2% | 10% | 4% | 21% |
16↓3 | Crystal Palace#16Win: 1.8%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.5%Releg: 21.5% | 4 | 3 | 2% | 10% | 4% | 22% |
17↑1 | Tottenham#17Win: 1.3%UCL: 8.0%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 26.3% | 4 | 2 | 1% | 8% | 3% | 26% |
18↑1 | Fulham#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.7%Releg: 30.2% | 4 | 1 | 1% | 6% | 3% | 30% |
19↓2 | Aston Villa#19Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.2%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 31.3% | 4 | 1 | 1% | 6% | 3% | 31% |
20 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 4.7%UEL: 2.0%Releg: 37.1% | 4 | 0 | 1% | 5% | 2% | 37% |
WinUCLUELReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Leeds United#11Winner: 4.8%Champions League: 21.8%Europa League: 5.7%Relegation: 9.8%7:00 PMNewcastle#10Winner: 5.0%Champions League: 22.5%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.6%
7:00 PMNewcastle#10Winner: 5.0%Champions League: 22.5%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.6%25%
48%
Tottenham#17Winner: 1.3%Champions League: 8.0%Europa League: 3.0%Relegation: 26.3%11:30 AMAston Villa#19Winner: 0.9%Champions League: 6.2%Europa League: 2.5%Relegation: 31.3%
11:30 AMAston Villa#19Winner: 0.9%Champions League: 6.2%Europa League: 2.5%Relegation: 31.3%9%
71%
Newcastle#10Winner: 5.0%Champions League: 22.5%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.6%2:00 PMHull City#3Winner: 7.6%Champions League: 29.9%Europa League: 6.8%Relegation: 5.9%
2:00 PMHull City#3Winner: 7.6%Champions League: 29.9%Europa League: 6.8%Relegation: 5.9%49%
27%
Everton#8Winner: 4.4%Champions League: 20.6%Europa League: 5.8%Relegation: 10.2%2:00 PMIpswich Town#9Winner: 4.1%Champions League: 19.4%Europa League: 5.5%Relegation: 11.2%
2:00 PMIpswich Town#9Winner: 4.1%Champions League: 19.4%Europa League: 5.5%Relegation: 11.2%27%
48%
Brighton#4Winner: 6.5%Champions League: 26.6%Europa League: 6.4%Relegation: 7.4%2:00 PMArsenal#1Winner: 19.3%Champions League: 52.0%Europa League: 7.4%Relegation: 1.7%
2:00 PMArsenal#1Winner: 19.3%Champions League: 52.0%Europa League: 7.4%Relegation: 1.7%83%
4%
Forest#12Winner: 3.2%Champions League: 16.3%Europa League: 4.9%Relegation: 13.5%4:30 PMCoventry City#20Winner: 0.6%Champions League: 4.7%Europa League: 2.0%Relegation: 37.1%
4:30 PMCoventry City#20Winner: 0.6%Champions League: 4.7%Europa League: 2.0%Relegation: 37.1%42%
28%
Bournemouth#15Winner: 1.7%Champions League: 10.4%Europa League: 3.8%Relegation: 20.7%1:00 PMLiverpool#7Winner: 4.4%Champions League: 21.1%Europa League: 5.7%Relegation: 10.1%
1:00 PMLiverpool#7Winner: 4.4%Champions League: 21.1%Europa League: 5.7%Relegation: 10.1%19%
55%
Leeds United#11Winner: 4.8%Champions League: 21.8%Europa League: 5.7%Relegation: 9.8%1:00 PMCrystal Palace#16Winner: 1.8%Champions League: 10.4%Europa League: 3.5%Relegation: 21.5%
1:00 PMCrystal Palace#16Winner: 1.8%Champions League: 10.4%Europa League: 3.5%Relegation: 21.5%25%
48%
Man City#2Winner: 18.9%Champions League: 51.7%Europa League: 7.5%Relegation: 1.6%1:00 PMSunderland#14Winner: 2.3%Champions League: 12.9%Europa League: 4.2%Relegation: 17.2%
1:00 PMSunderland#14Winner: 2.3%Champions League: 12.9%Europa League: 4.2%Relegation: 17.2%49%
24%
After Round 4: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Man United's UCL probability dropped from 28.6% to 13.2% (-15.4%).
- ↓Fulham's Releg probability dropped from 45.3% to 30.2% (-15.1%).
- ↓Brighton's UCL probability dropped from 40.8% to 26.6% (-14.2%).
- ↓Arsenal's UCL probability dropped from 65.3% to 52% (-13.3%).
- ↑Aston Villa's Releg probability climbed from 20.1% to 31.3% (+11.2%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Premier League 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
Premier League 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Premier League 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Arsenal currently have the highest title probability at 19%. With 34 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Premier League 26/27?
- Coventry City currently faces the highest relegation risk at 37%, followed by Aston Villa at 31%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Premier League 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Premier League 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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