Premier League 26/27 — Round 5 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man City#1Win: 26.1%UCL: 61.2%UEL: 7.0%Releg: 0.9% | 26.1% |
| 2 |  Arsenal#2Win: 13.2%UCL: 43.3%UEL: 7.6%Releg: 2.5% | 13.2% |
| 3 |  Brighton#3Win: 8.9%UCL: 33.6%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 4.6% | 8.9% |
| 4 |  Brentford#4Win: 6.7%UCL: 28.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.1% | 6.7% |
| 5 |  Leeds United#5Win: 6.4%UCL: 27.8%UEL: 6.7%Releg: 6.3% | 6.4% |
| 6 |  Everton#7Win: 6.2%UCL: 26.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.5% | 6.2% |
| 7 |  Liverpool#6Win: 6.1%UCL: 27.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.3% | 6.1% |
| 8 |  Hull City#8Win: 4.8%UCL: 22.4%UEL: 6.2%Releg: 8.4% | 4.8% |
| 9 |  Newcastle#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 22.0%UEL: 6.0%Releg: 8.5% | 4.7% |
| 10 |  Chelsea#10Win: 3.4%UCL: 17.6%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.6% | 3.4% |
| 11 |  Ipswich Town#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.6%Releg: 14.8% | 2.5% |
| 12 |  Forest#13Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.8%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.5% | 2.0% |
| 13 |  Man United#12Win: 1.9%UCL: 12.0%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.4% | 1.9% |
| 14 |  Sunderland#14Win: 1.4%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 22.8% | 1.4% |
| 15 |  Aston Villa#16Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.0% | 1.4% |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.1% | 1.3% |
| 17 |  Bournemouth#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 26.2% | 1.0% |
| 18 |  Coventry City#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.8%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 28.8% | 0.9% |
| 19 |  Fulham#19Win: 0.7%UCL: 5.6%UEL: 2.4%Releg: 31.4% | 0.7% |
| 20 |  Tottenham#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 5.2%UEL: 2.3%Releg: 33.3% | 0.6% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City#1Win: 26.1%UCL: 61.2%UEL: 7.0%Releg: 0.9% | 61.2% |
| 2 | Arsenal#2Win: 13.2%UCL: 43.3%UEL: 7.6%Releg: 2.5% | 43.3% |
| 3 | Brighton#3Win: 8.9%UCL: 33.6%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 4.6% | 33.6% |
| 4 | Brentford#4Win: 6.7%UCL: 28.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.1% | 28.3% |
| 5 | Leeds United#5Win: 6.4%UCL: 27.8%UEL: 6.7%Releg: 6.3% | 27.8% |
| 6 | Liverpool#6Win: 6.1%UCL: 27.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.3% | 27.3% |
| 7 | Everton#7Win: 6.2%UCL: 26.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.5% | 26.9% |
| 8 | Hull City#8Win: 4.8%UCL: 22.4%UEL: 6.2%Releg: 8.4% | 22.4% |
| 9 | Newcastle#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 22.0%UEL: 6.0%Releg: 8.5% | 22.0% |
| 10 | Chelsea#10Win: 3.4%UCL: 17.6%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.6% | 17.6% |
| 11 | Ipswich Town#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.6%Releg: 14.8% | 14.3% |
| 12 | Man United#12Win: 1.9%UCL: 12.0%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.4% | 12.0% |
| 13 | Forest#13Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.8%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.5% | 11.8% |
| 14 | Sunderland#14Win: 1.4%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 22.8% | 9.0% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.1% | 9.0% |
| 16 | Aston Villa#16Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.0% | 8.7% |
| 17 | Bournemouth#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 26.2% | 7.1% |
| 18 | Coventry City#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.8%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 28.8% | 6.8% |
| 19 | Fulham#19Win: 0.7%UCL: 5.6%UEL: 2.4%Releg: 31.4% | 5.6% |
| 20 | Tottenham#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 5.2%UEL: 2.3%Releg: 33.3% | 5.2% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal#2Win: 13.2%UCL: 43.3%UEL: 7.6%Releg: 2.5% | 7.6% |
| 2 | Brighton#3Win: 8.9%UCL: 33.6%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 4.6% | 7.2% |
| 3 | Man City#1Win: 26.1%UCL: 61.2%UEL: 7.0%Releg: 0.9% | 7.0% |
| 4 | Brentford#4Win: 6.7%UCL: 28.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.1% | 6.8% |
| 5 | Liverpool#6Win: 6.1%UCL: 27.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.3% | 6.8% |
| 6 | Everton#7Win: 6.2%UCL: 26.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.5% | 6.8% |
| 7 | Leeds United#5Win: 6.4%UCL: 27.8%UEL: 6.7%Releg: 6.3% | 6.7% |
| 8 | Hull City#8Win: 4.8%UCL: 22.4%UEL: 6.2%Releg: 8.4% | 6.2% |
| 9 | Newcastle#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 22.0%UEL: 6.0%Releg: 8.5% | 6.0% |
| 10 | Chelsea#10Win: 3.4%UCL: 17.6%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.6% | 5.5% |
| 11 | Ipswich Town#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.6%Releg: 14.8% | 4.6% |
| 12 | Man United#12Win: 1.9%UCL: 12.0%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.4% | 4.2% |
| 13 | Forest#13Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.8%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.5% | 4.2% |
| 14 | Sunderland#14Win: 1.4%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 22.8% | 3.4% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.1% | 3.4% |
| 16 | Aston Villa#16Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.0% | 3.4% |
| 17 | Bournemouth#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 26.2% | 2.8% |
| 18 | Coventry City#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.8%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 28.8% | 2.8% |
| 19 | Fulham#19Win: 0.7%UCL: 5.6%UEL: 2.4%Releg: 31.4% | 2.4% |
| 20 | Tottenham#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 5.2%UEL: 2.3%Releg: 33.3% | 2.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 5.2%UEL: 2.3%Releg: 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 2 | Fulham#19Win: 0.7%UCL: 5.6%UEL: 2.4%Releg: 31.4% | 31.4% |
| 3 | Coventry City#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.8%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 28.8% | 28.8% |
| 4 | Bournemouth#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 26.2% | 26.2% |
| 5 | Crystal Palace#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.1% | 23.1% |
| 6 | Aston Villa#16Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.0% | 23.0% |
| 7 | Sunderland#14Win: 1.4%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 22.8% | 22.8% |
| 8 | Forest#13Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.8%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.5% | 17.5% |
| 9 | Man United#12Win: 1.9%UCL: 12.0%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.4% | 17.4% |
| 10 | Ipswich Town#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.6%Releg: 14.8% | 14.8% |
| 11 | Chelsea#10Win: 3.4%UCL: 17.6%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.6% | 11.6% |
| 12 | Newcastle#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 22.0%UEL: 6.0%Releg: 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 13 | Hull City#8Win: 4.8%UCL: 22.4%UEL: 6.2%Releg: 8.4% | 8.4% |
| 14 | Everton#7Win: 6.2%UCL: 26.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 15 | Leeds United#5Win: 6.4%UCL: 27.8%UEL: 6.7%Releg: 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 16 | Liverpool#6Win: 6.1%UCL: 27.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 17 | Brentford#4Win: 6.7%UCL: 28.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.1% | 6.1% |
| 18 | Brighton#3Win: 8.9%UCL: 33.6%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 4.6% | 4.6% |
| 19 | Arsenal#2Win: 13.2%UCL: 43.3%UEL: 7.6%Releg: 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 20 | Man City#1Win: 26.1%UCL: 61.2%UEL: 7.0%Releg: 0.9% | 0.9% |
Round 5 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | Manchester City#1Win: 26.1%UCL: 61.2%UEL: 7.0%Releg: 0.9% | 5 | 15 | 26% | 61% | 7% | 1% |
2↓1 | Arsenal#2Win: 13.2%UCL: 43.3%UEL: 7.6%Releg: 2.5% | 5 | 12 | 13% | 43% | 8% | 3% |
3↑2 | Brighton#3Win: 8.9%UCL: 33.6%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 4.6% | 5 | 10 | 9% | 34% | 7% | 5% |
4↑3 | Brentford#4Win: 6.7%UCL: 28.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.1% | 5 | 9 | 7% | 28% | 7% | 6% |
5↓2 | Leeds United#5Win: 6.4%UCL: 27.8%UEL: 6.7%Releg: 6.3% | 5 | 9 | 6% | 28% | 7% | 6% |
6↑2 | Liverpool#6Win: 6.1%UCL: 27.3%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.3% | 5 | 9 | 6% | 27% | 7% | 6% |
7↑2 | Everton#7Win: 6.2%UCL: 26.9%UEL: 6.8%Releg: 6.5% | 5 | 9 | 6% | 27% | 7% | 7% |
8↓4 | Hull City#8Win: 4.8%UCL: 22.4%UEL: 6.2%Releg: 8.4% | 5 | 8 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 8% |
9↑3 | Newcastle#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 22.0%UEL: 6.0%Releg: 8.5% | 5 | 8 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 9% |
10↓4 | Chelsea#10Win: 3.4%UCL: 17.6%UEL: 5.5%Releg: 11.6% | 5 | 7 | 3% | 18% | 6% | 12% |
11↓1 | Ipswich Town#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.6%Releg: 14.8% | 5 | 6 | 3% | 14% | 5% | 15% |
12↑1 | Manchester United#12Win: 1.9%UCL: 12.0%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.4% | 5 | 5 | 2% | 12% | 4% | 17% |
13↓2 | Nottingham Forest#13Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.8%UEL: 4.2%Releg: 17.5% | 5 | 5 | 2% | 12% | 4% | 18% |
14 | Sunderland#14Win: 1.4%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 22.8% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 9% | 3% | 23% |
15↑1 | Crystal Palace#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.0%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.1% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 9% | 3% | 23% |
16↑3 | Aston Villa#16Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%Releg: 23.0% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 9% | 3% | 23% |
17↓2 | Bournemouth#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 7.1%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 26.2% | 5 | 3 | 1% | 7% | 3% | 26% |
18↑2 | Coventry City#18Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.8%UEL: 2.8%Releg: 28.8% | 5 | 3 | 1% | 7% | 3% | 29% |
19↓1 | Fulham#19Win: 0.7%UCL: 5.6%UEL: 2.4%Releg: 31.4% | 5 | 2 | 1% | 6% | 2% | 31% |
20↓3 | Tottenham#20Win: 0.6%UCL: 5.2%UEL: 2.3%Releg: 33.3% | 5 | 2 | 1% | 5% | 2% | 33% |
WinUCLUELReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Arsenal#2Winner: 13.2%Champions League: 43.3%Europa League: 7.6%Relegation: 2.5%11:30 AMLeeds United#5Winner: 6.4%Champions League: 27.8%Europa League: 6.7%Relegation: 6.3%
11:30 AMLeeds United#5Winner: 6.4%Champions League: 27.8%Europa League: 6.7%Relegation: 6.3%84%
5%
Sunderland#14Winner: 1.4%Champions League: 9.0%Europa League: 3.4%Relegation: 22.8%2:00 PMBrighton#3Winner: 8.9%Champions League: 33.6%Europa League: 7.2%Relegation: 4.6%
2:00 PMBrighton#3Winner: 8.9%Champions League: 33.6%Europa League: 7.2%Relegation: 4.6%22%
51%
Aston Villa#16Winner: 1.4%Champions League: 8.7%Europa League: 3.4%Relegation: 23.0%2:00 PMBrentford#4Winner: 6.7%Champions League: 28.3%Europa League: 6.8%Relegation: 6.1%
2:00 PMBrentford#4Winner: 6.7%Champions League: 28.3%Europa League: 6.8%Relegation: 6.1%83%
4%
Chelsea#10Winner: 3.4%Champions League: 17.6%Europa League: 5.5%Relegation: 11.6%2:00 PMBournemouth#17Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 7.1%Europa League: 2.8%Relegation: 26.2%
2:00 PMBournemouth#17Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 7.1%Europa League: 2.8%Relegation: 26.2%8%
78%
Ipswich Town#11Winner: 2.5%Champions League: 14.3%Europa League: 4.6%Relegation: 14.8%2:00 PMFulham#19Winner: 0.7%Champions League: 5.6%Europa League: 2.4%Relegation: 31.4%
2:00 PMFulham#19Winner: 0.7%Champions League: 5.6%Europa League: 2.4%Relegation: 31.4%39%
33%
Man United#12Winner: 1.9%Champions League: 12.0%Europa League: 4.2%Relegation: 17.4%4:30 PMTottenham#20Winner: 0.6%Champions League: 5.2%Europa League: 2.3%Relegation: 33.3%
4:30 PMTottenham#20Winner: 0.6%Champions League: 5.2%Europa League: 2.3%Relegation: 33.3%89%
3%
Hull City#8Winner: 4.8%Champions League: 22.4%Europa League: 6.2%Relegation: 8.4%1:00 PMEverton#7Winner: 6.2%Champions League: 26.9%Europa League: 6.8%Relegation: 6.5%
1:00 PMEverton#7Winner: 6.2%Champions League: 26.9%Europa League: 6.8%Relegation: 6.5%43%
29%
Crystal Palace#15Winner: 1.3%Champions League: 9.0%Europa League: 3.4%Relegation: 23.1%1:00 PMForest#13Winner: 2.0%Champions League: 11.8%Europa League: 4.2%Relegation: 17.5%
1:00 PMForest#13Winner: 2.0%Champions League: 11.8%Europa League: 4.2%Relegation: 17.5%32%
40%
Coventry City#18Winner: 0.9%Champions League: 6.8%Europa League: 2.8%Relegation: 28.8%7:00 PMNewcastle#9Winner: 4.7%Champions League: 22.0%Europa League: 6.0%Relegation: 8.5%
7:00 PMNewcastle#9Winner: 4.7%Champions League: 22.0%Europa League: 6.0%Relegation: 8.5%1%
95%
After Round 5: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Coventry City's Releg probability dropped from 66.9% to 28.8% (-38.1%).
- ↓Brighton's UCL probability dropped from 54.4% to 33.6% (-20.8%).
- ↓Brentford's UCL probability dropped from 44.1% to 28.3% (-15.8%).
- ↓Arsenal's UCL probability dropped from 56.7% to 43.3% (-13.4%).
- ↑Everton's UCL probability climbed from 16.1% to 26.9% (+10.8%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Premier League 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
Premier League 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Premier League 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Man City currently have the highest title probability at 26%. With 33 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Premier League 26/27?
- Tottenham currently faces the highest relegation risk at 33%, followed by Fulham at 31%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Premier League 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Premier League 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions