Vila Nova Promotion Chances
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B
Vila Nova are the clear favourite for promotion with a 90.8% probability, though their odds slipped after the latest round.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 45.9% |
| Promotion | 90.8% |
| Relegation | 0.0% |
Vila Nova are currently 1st in the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B table with 31 matches played (17W 6D 8L, 57 pts).
Probability History
🔍 What This Means
At 90.8%, Vila Nova are currently a strong contender for promotion. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Vila Nova's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Over the last 2 rounds, Vila Nova's probability of promotion has climbed from 84.5% to 90.8%.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Vila Nova achieves promotion across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Promotion odds for every team
| Juventude | 84.0% |
| Novorizontino | 64.6% |
| Criciúma | 50.5% |
| Fortaleza | 46.3% |
| Atlético-GO | 37.6% |
| Sport | 8.5% |
| CRB | 8.9% |
| Operário-PR | 6.7% |
| Cuiabá | 1.7% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Brasileiro 2026, Serie B table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.